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Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

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Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#71

Post by aprilthird2021 »

rokkitmensch wrote: post #57
bglazer wrote: post #32

What’s the conclusion here? Basically, the last paragraph says pundits should talk to different sources, and that they should “keep the interests of the nation” in mind. He concludes by saying some vaguely ominous thing about politics not mattering if America “goes down”. So all in all, the thesis of the piece is that no one knows how or why defense contractors are spending a significant fraction of American GDP. But…

The conclusion here is that American military might is definitely, definitely, definitely not on the wane, or engaged in asymmetric warfare the narrative class tricked us into believing to be backwards religious zealots with no hope of ever playing on the global stage, and that this new multipolar world is fake Russian news.

It's hard to understand what you're trying to say, tbh.

I don't think anyone thinks American military might is on the wane. The blog post is very clear that given the info people knew at the time, the ineffectiveness of missle defense systems was reasonable to believe in...

But America's war record in the past few decades shows that might alone cannot win wars. And given that our might is high and our strategy has been a bit poor, it's not insane for people to want to spend less money and time on the former and more on the latter...

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#72

Post by r00fus »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #49
cryptoxchange wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every analyst I respect has the same take. This guy even glosses over that it wasn’t a general on a tarmac this time, but a general in a consulate that was extrajudicially murdered. Iran had to respond in a show of force to reestablish deterrence, without escalating the conflict, drawing the US in. Two kids are on the playground, one has a big brother. They’re both constantly bothering each other. The kid without the…

Do we know what motivated Israel's assassination of the Iranian general? It seems unwise to resort to assassination unprovoked.

Easy. They’re losing the Gaza war. Yemen’s blockade and full militarization is crushing Israel’s economy. Bibi is out of a job and possibly his freedom if war stops.

Time for a trump card: escalation of the conflict will keep the extremists happy and keep the hostilities going for possibly years. Bibi’s best choice.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#74

Post by aprilthird2021 »

invalidname wrote: post #66
aprilthird2021 wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But this was also a unique situation where Israel held back. In a typical case a firing would receive an immediate deadly response. E.g. planes and missiles from Israel returning the favor. Thus the cost for Iran would have been much higher. I feel like we are observing separate conflicts altogether. Israel whose conscript army is nearing its end in terms of endurance, who has been bogged down in urban guerilla warf…

FYI I probably won't be able to answer much since dang limited my account after I took offense at people who think my country shouldn't exist. But I'll bite. Israel isn't remotely close to stretching its forces. The army is actually pushing hard for retaliation and most forces from Gaza are already at home by now. There's an importance of "perceived power" in this region. It's crucial to Israeli survival that it appe…

Well, everything you say is quite surprising to me. But thanks for sharing your perspective. I've certainly never heard most of these points before.

It's pretty clear that Israel is stretching the extent it can take its conscripts to. Otherwise they wouldn't be debating drafting haredis (at great political risk). They wouldn't be pulling out of Gaza. Allies and the upper brass themselves wouldn't be saying the conscript army needs rest. And you wouldn't be seeing the big, news-making mistakes the conscript army is making after 6 months of urban warfare.

The idea that a war against Iran would be easy is, quite frankly bonkers. It sounds like something Netanyahu would say to everyone's groans and disappointment. It sounds like Putin's hubris before he invaded Ukraine...

>Some believe it would be best to attack the head of the snake.

This reads like it's not serious about the practicalities of war. It honestly reads like Hamas propaganda talking about how they're going to directly kill Netanyahu when such a move is realistically impossible for them.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#75

Post by invalidname »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #74
invalidname wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI I probably won't be able to answer much since dang limited my account after I took offense at people who think my country shouldn't exist. But I'll bite. Israel isn't remotely close to stretching its forces. The army is actually pushing hard for retaliation and most forces from Gaza are already at home by now. There's an importance of "perceived power" in this region. It's crucial to Israeli survival that it appe…

Well, everything you say is quite surprising to me. But thanks for sharing your perspective. I've certainly never heard most of these points before. It's pretty clear that Israel is stretching the extent it can take its conscripts to. Otherwise they wouldn't be debating drafting haredis (at great political risk). They wouldn't be pulling out of Gaza. Allies and the upper brass themselves wouldn't be saying the conscr…

We're talking about this point in time. Not theory. Right now people who were drafted for military reserves in October are mostly home now. At this point Israel has manpower.

The drafting of Hasidim is a different issue altogether that's been going on for decades. It's reached a boiling point mostly due to unrelated circumstances. A supreme court ruling came in that effectively invalidated the current legal hack as discriminatory. Since Netnyahu's coalition relies on the Hasidic vote he is trying to find a solution. They demand complete, permanent immunity from the draft which is a red flag here. Especially at this point in time.

Right now numbers are reasonable but if the war develops into an all front war then yes, Israel will be stretched. Regardless, a war against Iran would employ mostly pilots and missile defenses. Those are different forces from the ones engaged in combat in other fronts. So saturation isn't linear.

> The idea that a war against Iran would be easy is, quite frankly bonkers.

I didn't say it would be easy. I said "easier" with quotes trying to convey nuance. War sucks. But a war against a "normal army" is something that is simpler and clear. Urban warfare is just terrible for any army.

In the case of a war with Iran Israel can rely much heavier on air superiority which is probably its strongest suit.

> >Some believe it would be best to attack the head of the snake. > > This reads like it's not serious about the practicalities of war. It honestly reads like Hamas propaganda talking about how they're going to directly kill Netanyahu when such a move is realistically impossible for them.

Notice this isn't my opinion but I understand where they're coming from. Proxy wars suck.

I do think that if Israel could destroy the Iranian reactor it would be a huge accomplishment and would ultimately be a good thing. Israel did that in Iraq and effectively blocked Saddam from having Nuclear weapons. It did it in Syria and stopped Assad from a similar accomplishment.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#76

Post by KevinMS »

I've always seriously doubted Ukraine shooting down any "hypersonic" missiles. The problem is not solvable. Hypersonic missiles are really just manuevering ballistic missiles, and its impossible to plot an intercept path unless you have a really really big explosion. Missile defense is done, along with large military assets like surface ships.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#77

Post by edanm »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #49
cryptoxchange wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every analyst I respect has the same take. This guy even glosses over that it wasn’t a general on a tarmac this time, but a general in a consulate that was extrajudicially murdered. Iran had to respond in a show of force to reestablish deterrence, without escalating the conflict, drawing the US in. Two kids are on the playground, one has a big brother. They’re both constantly bothering each other. The kid without the…

Do we know what motivated Israel's assassination of the Iranian general? It seems unwise to resort to assassination unprovoked.

The Iranian general was actively working to help arm Hezbollah, who have been i a low-grade conflict with Israel since October 7th (and before). Think Israel and Hezbollah shooting rockets at each other back and forth for the last 6 months kind of conflict.

Because of this conflict, Israel has ~80k citizens who have had to evacuate their homes because they are too close to the border, and they are afraid to come back with Hezbollah continuing to attack.

See e.g. this random article: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-global...

> According to a report in The Guardian, Zahedi “commanded units in Lebanon and Syria and was most likely a critical figure in Tehran’s relationship with Hezbollah and Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad”.

> Arab News quoted a US Department of the Treasury statement from August 3, 2010, saying that Zahedi “also acted as a liaison to Hezbollah and Syrian intelligence services and is reportedly charged with guaranteeing weapons shipments to Hezbollah.”

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#78

Post by edanm »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #74
invalidname wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FYI I probably won't be able to answer much since dang limited my account after I took offense at people who think my country shouldn't exist. But I'll bite. Israel isn't remotely close to stretching its forces. The army is actually pushing hard for retaliation and most forces from Gaza are already at home by now. There's an importance of "perceived power" in this region. It's crucial to Israeli survival that it appe…

Well, everything you say is quite surprising to me. But thanks for sharing your perspective. I've certainly never heard most of these points before. It's pretty clear that Israel is stretching the extent it can take its conscripts to. Otherwise they wouldn't be debating drafting haredis (at great political risk). They wouldn't be pulling out of Gaza. Allies and the upper brass themselves wouldn't be saying the conscr…

> It's pretty clear that Israel is stretching the extent it can take its conscripts to. Otherwise they wouldn't be debating drafting haredis (at great political risk).

Let me endorse the fellow commenter here - this is a misread of the situation. The army has pulled back most troops from Gaza, partially because they need rest, but also because they don't have anything to do right now. They're holding territory, but there's no planned next move - the army is waiting for the government on this. If a Rafah operation proceeds, then I assume more troops will re-enter Gaza.

As for the debate over drafting Haredi, as fellow poster said - this is an unrelated political thing that is cropping up now. Well, not entirely unrelated - this has been debated for decades, but it's probably being used now by people who oppose the current government. It's being used now partially because at this moment, the importance of the draft is more obvious, but also because the opposition is trying to bring down the government, and this is a way to do it.

It really has nothing to do with needing these conscripts for the current fight.

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#79

Post by edanm »

aprilthird2021 wrote: post #64
invalidname wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true. There's photo and video evidence plus confirmation from multiple separate sources (different countries). You don't fire 300+ missiles and drones just as a "show of force". It's expensive. Their stated goal was to overwhelm the missile defense system and it clearly failed. > The cost of the attack seemed to be 1/10th the cost of the defense so that does appear to be a net win for the attackers. Not really.…

>But this was also a unique situation where Israel held back. In a typical case a firing would receive an immediate deadly response. E.g. planes and missiles from Israel returning the favor. Thus the cost for Iran would have been much higher. I feel like we are observing separate conflicts altogether. Israel whose conscript army is nearing its end in terms of endurance, who has been bogged down in urban guerilla warf…

> You think that Israel would even consider an immediate deadly response to open a fourth front in a war they can't afford, a war the public is getting sick of, and a war that the very disliked leader of the nation is cynically prolonging to maintain his waning grip on power?

It's worth keeping in mind a few things.

The world's public might be "getting sick of" the war, but most Israelis are united around wanting to see the end of Hamas. They'd like things done faster, obviously, but aren't "sick of the war".

Also, almost everyone understands that the real enemy behind everything is Iran, and that the real threat to Israel is a nuclear Iran. There is a definite strain of thought that wants to take the Iran attack as an opportunity to do the one thing that is actually important for Israel's survival - try and stop Iran from getting a nuke.

As for the leader of the nation "cynically prolonging" the war, I'm personally conflicted on this. I definitely oppose Netanyahu and think he would do anything to cling to power... but it's not clear in what way the war could be "shortened", short of Israel just deciding to leave Hamas in power, which most Israelis oppose. (That's not to say I agree with anything else he is doing, or with other aspects of the war.)

Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense

#80

Post by leereeves »

edanm wrote: post #77
paulryanrogers wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we know what motivated Israel's assassination of the Iranian general? It seems unwise to resort to assassination unprovoked.

The Iranian general was actively working to help arm Hezbollah, who have been i a low-grade conflict with Israel since October 7th (and before). Think Israel and Hezbollah shooting rockets at each other back and forth for the last 6 months kind of conflict. Because of this conflict, Israel has ~80k citizens who have had to evacuate their homes because they are too close to the border, and they are afraid to come back…

In terms of international law (for what that's worth), that is a dangerous precedent. Is a US general a legitimate target for Russia now, because we're arming their enemy?

AFAIK, even during the Cold War, when the US was arming Russia's enemies (like Afghanistan) and Russia was arming the US's enemies (like Vietnam), neither nation went so far as to assassinate generals from the other.

We even asked Ukraine not to attack a Russian general.[1]

So, historically, it seems like what Israel did would not generally be considered justified.

(OTOH, we did assassinate Yamamoto, but we were actively at war with Japan.)

1: https://news.ycombinator.com/edit?id=40049703

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