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Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

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Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#21
post #9

I'm a non-Californian, so I'm not very familiar with the tectonics at play here. If there's an earthquake on this fault, how bad would it be? Would it trigger a tsunami? Would SF and LA be damaged? Could this cause "the big one" that gets mentioned occasionally? How bad would such a quake be?

One thing which isn't discussed enough is how bad the Tsunami is environmentally. The coastline of Japan is absolutely littered with crap from the 2011 Tsunami. All manner of chemicals were sucked into the nearby sea, tires, carpets, hard and soft plastics, absolutely everywhere. It almost looks unrecoverable. I know that seems like a non-issue in the grand scale of things, but Tsunami's of the past didn't do this. M…

More of a concern in the bay area, the geological composition is sand, mud, basic river delta sediments--not the most stable stuff.

eg: During a hypothetical Earthquake in the Bay area, the liquefaction of sand occurs, which causes underground structures to move upward due to buoyancy (think of a lower level parking garage), and the soil mass from the structure collapses.

the liquefied sand diffuses to the surrounding area after the earthquake, causing the sand beneath the underground structure to be lost, and the building will return to its original position or even collapse.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#22

I sat in on a lecture by a Stanford geophysicist, and he said that seismologists have every legal incentive to communicate that a large earthquake is imminent in the Bay, even if their work is inconclusive or suggests otherwise. They might get sued or prosecuted if they say it’s safe and a big one strikes.

That seems odd. What would be the basis of such a lawsuit?

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#23

I sat in on a lecture by a Stanford geophysicist, and he said that seismologists have every legal incentive to communicate that a large earthquake is imminent in the Bay, even if their work is inconclusive or suggests otherwise. They might get sued or prosecuted if they say it’s safe and a big one strikes.

Are there any other professional category that gets sued if they don't predict disaster within tight timing?

Imagine suing epidemiologists because they didn't predict Covid-19 in a timely manner.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And then out with a quick whimper that the scientists are not convicted. Well, no, this isn't Italy.

I think op is referring to a TS Elliot poem

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

This is the way the world ends

Not with a bang but a whimper.

---

Excerpt from The Hollow Men by T.S. Eliot[0].

I'll have to add it to the page, but it was also used as the introduction for The Compound by S.A. Bodeen[1]. It's an interesting young adult novel about a family living underground in a state of the art bomb shelter after a nuclear attack occurs.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hollow_Men

[1] https://bookshop.org/p/books/the-compound-s-a-bodeen/1554853...

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#25

I sat in on a lecture by a Stanford geophysicist, and he said that seismologists have every legal incentive to communicate that a large earthquake is imminent in the Bay, even if their work is inconclusive or suggests otherwise. They might get sued or prosecuted if they say it’s safe and a big one strikes.

That seems odd. What would be the basis of such a lawsuit?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/oct/22/scientists-c... perhaps.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#26
The earthquake might cause unexpected damage. The Crystal Springs reservoir sits right on the San Andreas fault line. The reservoir supplies drinking water to the SF county and San Mateo county, all the way to Palo Alto. An earthquake might drain the water underground, disrupting water supply to a million people.

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#29

Earlier warnings: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23823917 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24116552 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19701182 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23823917 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11634338

I think this line is (a) most accurate and (b) rings true to your list

"as is always the case with earthquakes, everyone will just have to wait and see what happens"

Oh well, off to watch a B-Grade disaster movie then ..

Re: Seismologists suspect earthquake on San Andreas Fault is imminent

#30
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems odd. What would be the basis of such a lawsuit?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2012/oct/22/scientists-c... perhaps.

Wow that’s fucked up

Edit: looks like they eventually were saved in appeals court https://www.nature.com/articles/515171a and finally completely cleared after their Supreme Court ruling https://www.science.org/content/article/italy-s-supreme-cour...

Still a lot of time and money wasted on absolute bullshit.

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