My gut is Iran wanted the missiles to be intercepted. They wanted to show they are not pushovers but don’t want to escalate too much. In some sense the whole thing was a fireworks display by the countries involved. Like a warning shot.
Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
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Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#12Isn't the problem with these missile defense systems that the per-unit cost is very high? And so in a longer term battle (like Russia vs Ukraine) one side can drain the other's defenses and $$ through the continuous use of cheap drones where the cost of the missile defense rocket far exceeds the cost of the sent drone?
The next gen systems being developed are laser based. Bringing the cost per interception way down.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#13Isn't the problem with these missile defense systems that the per-unit cost is very high? And so in a longer term battle (like Russia vs Ukraine) one side can drain the other's defenses and $$ through the continuous use of cheap drones where the cost of the missile defense rocket far exceeds the cost of the sent drone?
Slow drones can be shot down even with machine guns, but missiles require expensive interceptors, and fast missiles can't (practically) be intercepted (yet).
Cheap drones are evolving fast, but so too are counters for them.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#14Isn't the problem with these missile defense systems that the per-unit cost is very high? And so in a longer term battle (like Russia vs Ukraine) one side can drain the other's defenses and $$ through the continuous use of cheap drones where the cost of the missile defense rocket far exceeds the cost of the sent drone?
The cost per unit could be dramatically lower for drones soon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam
A 100 kW shot is a big one. 100 kW is around $15 from the grid in Israel. Maybe double that a few times for inefficiencies, it's still a lot cheaper than an effective drone.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#15Do we know for sure what has been reported is true, was it really only a few?
Perhaps we should consider that the goal wasn't to do a lot of damage but instead saber-rattling. It would seem wise for Iran to both to satiate the demands of their constituents desire for retribution without triggering escalation. That Israel was told to 'take the win' by the US seems to be as good as result for Iran as one could possibly hope for.
The cost of the attack seemed to be 1/10th the cost of the defense so that does appear to be a net win for the attackers.
I worry that the west will become over confident with our missile defence and use it as an excuse to push conflict as close to nuclear exchange as possible. To paraphrase Bertrand Russell; 'like teenagers playing a game of nuclear chicken'
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#16Metrics of success are going to be:
Ratio of cost of defense vs attack. The US and it's allies spent X on the missiles. Iran spent Y on the attack. If the ratio of X/Y is 1k or more, then it's probably not a feasible long term solution. IOW we're spending a billion to defend against a million dollars worth of materiel (no that's not a misspelling).
Percentage of effectiveness to cost. If a smart missile is more effective by a dumb(er) missile by 20% but costs 10x less to make, one can probably just make up for it by making 10x more of the cheaper missiles.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#17Isn't the problem with these missile defense systems that the per-unit cost is very high? And so in a longer term battle (like Russia vs Ukraine) one side can drain the other's defenses and $$ through the continuous use of cheap drones where the cost of the missile defense rocket far exceeds the cost of the sent drone?
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Fair, but you could just define the term cost as 'replacement rate', see that the replacement rate for ballistic defense missiles is way higher than the required resources to do the same for decoys, and still see the problem
That said I'm super happy that we have best in class missile defense systems, I truly hope we continue to do so, solve the decoy problem behind closed doors (better detection all the way down?), and then have a similarly long if not longer period of relative peace where we get to argue about their effectiveness from our armchairs rather than on the battlefield.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#18I'll agree with the specifics that it looks like some military technologies are more effective than we realized.
I do not think that it's a fair logical leap to say "therefore the US should keep spending a significant portion of its national budget on it."
I think the biggest predictors of whether humankind is alive in 1,000 years are not military at all, and perhaps inversely proportional to military spending. If instead of spending 877 Billion on military per year instead spent that much on clean energy, AI, or health-related technologies I imagine we'd find humanity in a much better state.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
#19My gut is Iran wanted the missiles to be intercepted. They wanted to show they are not pushovers but don’t want to escalate too much. In some sense the whole thing was a fireworks display by the countries involved. Like a warning shot.
Every analyst I respect has the same take. This guy even glosses over that it wasn’t a general on a tarmac this time, but a general in a consulate that was extrajudicially murdered. Iran had to respond in a show of force to reestablish deterrence, without escalating the conflict, drawing the US in.
Two kids are on the playground, one has a big brother. They’re both constantly bothering each other. The kid without the big brother has to ride a thin line to not look like he’s trying to kill the other kid (causing the big brother to run over) while still bruising him back enough that the other kid leaves him alone until next week.
Re: Why so many of us were wrong about missile defense
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