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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Nah, just saying it can reduce the damage. Increased nominal value of assets doesn't reduce any damage actually. It just means that maybe you lost a smaller portion of your net worth than you would have otherwise. >It's not good for businesses, and the drop in real income is not good. But the income hurt is smaller than raw inflation, and the the savings situation is pretty nice actually. While some businesses may b…

> It just means that maybe you lost a smaller portion of your net worth than you would have otherwise. Y-yes? That isn't reducing the damage to you? > No, there is no profit from inflation. The numbers are just getting bigger. There is one actual way to profit from inflation, and that is to borrow money and buy valuable stuff, then repay the loan with less valuable dollars. I didn't say the profit was from inflation.…

>Y-yes? That isn't reducing the damage to you?

It is only reducing damage to you if you anticipated the inflation and avoided it. Here's an example:

Person 1: Has $5k in cash. Person 2: Has $5k in cash and a house that is paid for, worth $100k.

After inflation, both of these people would lose the same amount of spending power on the $5k. The one with the house has an asset that goes up in dollars but is likely worth the same or less. His spending power goes down by just as much as the other guy, if not more.

>If inflation is 30% percent, but your savings went up 60% since 4 years ago, then you profited overall. (And stocks would not have gone up the same amount if there was no inflation.)

Ok so yes, if your stocks outperformed inflation somehow (despite inflation unofficially running 10-20% per year!) then you can claim a profit. But stocks are supposed to profit anyway. You did make it sound like you thought the inflation made the stocks more valuable. It does not, because inflation raises all prices in general.

>Overall you're probably worse off than if inflation was lower, but you can't say that your money buys 30% less now.

Actually yes you can. Money buys 30% less. If you had assets that rose with inflation, you can preserve your spending power. But your salary is not like that, nor any cash-adjacent instrument you have like savings, CDs, and treasuries.

>Remember, I was specifically objecting to the idea that "inflation is X% in the last few years, therefore my money buys X% less". Ignoring that it's the wrong way to calculate percentages, the baseline idea is not true. The amount your wallet is impacted is more than 0, but less than inflation.

You do have a point about it being backward. 20% inflation means your dollar buys about 83% of what it did previously. But as inflation is measured by price changes it literally means your money buys the straightforwardly-calculated reduced amount. You can't point to inflation avoidance schemes or occasional salary increases and say that shit offsets the actual price increases in a meaningful way. Accounting for inflation avoidance (an economic inefficiency produced by inflation) would require a whole new statistic.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It absolutely raises the “floor” of the housing costs - more materials simply means more costs. And the labor to do extra work means more costs - and quality labor is much more expensive today. Same reason a bigger house means more costs. I would posit - admittedly without data - that outside of major metros where land is the clear dominant cost, most costs for housing increase is labor. There are houses and empty lo…

Having worked near these neighborhoods the value you put in would be at a high risk. It's very possible you'll be assaulted, your home will be robbed, and the market value won't match the renovation costs. All that said, some parts are gentrifying. Though mostly where developers can get large enough plots.

Yea for sure. I lived near there for a short while (in school) and have some friends in the area still.

The point is that most of the cost of these homes are labor - even when land is nearly free (<50k in a city), you can’t get a “cheap” home that’s made to modern standards. If the land is free, there is no demand and high supply, but the house is expensive- it’s labor or materials driving the cost.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> houses are unquestionably more valuable today… They also have better insulation and construction, they’re all wired for electricity and plumbing, they all have advanced HVAC. Fancier kitchens with more plumbing, appliances and nicer materials. People have access to more furniture and fixtures and appliances to fill more home - no one needed laundry rooms before a washer/drier was invented. Few had garages. Don’t le…

Have you seen the price of land recently? It’s more than half the price of construction! Mud hut, pole barn, unserviced cabin, what-have-you, the land is going to be a major and significant expense.

That’s only in high-demand areas. You can get dirt cheap land in most of the US - but obviously demand to live there is low. You wanna live in the bay are, and your cost is largely land. But you can’t build a modern home without significant cost, even if the land was free.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> houses are unquestionably more valuable today… They also have better insulation and construction, they’re all wired for electricity and plumbing, they all have advanced HVAC. Fancier kitchens with more plumbing, appliances and nicer materials. People have access to more furniture and fixtures and appliances to fill more home - no one needed laundry rooms before a washer/drier was invented. Few had garages. Don’t le…

Show me a company that can sell a less advanced 1960s style house for the average worker's median income and I'll show you the next 100-billion dollar company.

Show me the land that this company can afford to build on and I’ll show you an undesirable part of the country.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If these facts are so right, why do they sound false to me? Again, this appeal to the vibe you're getting right now is not compelling to anyone who actually cares about economics.

His vibes agree with what economists think. Look up what happened in the late 70s and early 80s.

You mean the time that I read and memorized long ago had an inflation of 14%? You have read the title of this post, right? And you're aware that 18 > 14? If I assume you are, you are just making another vibes-based assertion. Would you rather I didn't?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It just means that maybe you lost a smaller portion of your net worth than you would have otherwise. Y-yes? That isn't reducing the damage to you? > No, there is no profit from inflation. The numbers are just getting bigger. There is one actual way to profit from inflation, and that is to borrow money and buy valuable stuff, then repay the loan with less valuable dollars. I didn't say the profit was from inflation.…

>Y-yes? That isn't reducing the damage to you? It is only reducing damage to you if you anticipated the inflation and avoided it. Here's an example: Person 1: Has $5k in cash. Person 2: Has $5k in cash and a house that is paid for, worth $100k. After inflation, both of these people would lose the same amount of spending power on the $5k. The one with the house has an asset that goes up in dollars but is likely worth…

> Person 1: Has $5k in cash. Person 2: Has $5k in cash and a house that is paid for, worth $100k.

Yeah the guy that has a paid-for house and zero stocks loses out asset-wise. That's a weird-ass balance of assets though.

> Ok so yes, if your stocks outperformed inflation somehow

Well again, I was talking to someone else, using their inflation number of 30% as the basis of my comment. Stocks objectively rose by a lot more than 30%.

I don't want to argue with you about what actual inflation was.

> Actually yes you can. Money buys 30% less. If you had assets that rose with inflation, you can preserve your spending power. But your salary is not like that, nor any cash-adjacent instrument you have like savings, CDs, and treasuries.

I addressed salary in my earlier comment. If your salary didn't have any extra increase because of inflation, your employer is screwing you over, stop letting them do that.

Salary and savings are two separate arguments and I made both of them.

> You can't point to inflation avoidance schemes

"Own some stock" is not a scheme, it's what you're supposed to do with significant amounts of savings.

> or occasional salary increases and say that shit offsets the actual price increases in a meaningful way

I think it's fair to count on an extra salary increase. Tons of people got extra salary increases from inflation. Were they enough to compensate for all of inflation? Usually not. But they were enough to reduce the losses. Which is all I need to make my point.

Especially because lower wage jobs got better increases, and higher wage jobs correlate to owning at least a few thousand dollars of stock.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If interest rates remain the same for a longer period then houses must sell for a price where people can pay their mortgages. No, houses can stay expensive even if no one lives in them, as we see in China. Or rents can rise far above affordable levels, as they have, and people can end up paying more in rent than they could qualify for with a mortgage. Or people can take roommates or boarders to afford the higher co…

Irrelevant whether someone is living in it or not. And I don't think China is a relevant example when discussing mortgages in my country or the US. If the market is driven by mortgages (presuming there are not other reasons why the market is disfunctional) then someone is paying the mortgage (or the opportunity cost of investing cash). The market price mostly depends on how much people are capable (and willing) to sp…

You did mention it later but not in the original comment I said wasn't true now:

> As interest rates rise, people spend the same amount monthly (on interest payments) but borrow less in total and can bid less on houses.

Your later responses only explain (in part) why that's not true.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#418
post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everything in the comment you replied to falsifies "So a strawman". No it doesn't, user exclaims their ignorance and your follow up emboldens their ignorance does not make a QED.

Does your understanding of reasoning consist solely of the dichotomy "every position is either a QED or a strawman"?

Does yours?

> When every example you have of X is Y, it's not a "strawman" to say "all X are Y" — when you're wrong like that, it's a black swan.

Either way, I don't appreciate you putting words in my mouth, I hope you don't go around proclaiming you're the arbiter of all that's right in the world.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Y-yes? That isn't reducing the damage to you? It is only reducing damage to you if you anticipated the inflation and avoided it. Here's an example: Person 1: Has $5k in cash. Person 2: Has $5k in cash and a house that is paid for, worth $100k. After inflation, both of these people would lose the same amount of spending power on the $5k. The one with the house has an asset that goes up in dollars but is likely worth…

> Person 1: Has $5k in cash. Person 2: Has $5k in cash and a house that is paid for, worth $100k. Yeah the guy that has a paid-for house and zero stocks loses out asset-wise. That's a weird-ass balance of assets though. > Ok so yes, if your stocks outperformed inflation somehow Well again, I was talking to someone else, using their inflation number of 30% as the basis of my comment. Stocks objectively rose by a lot m…

>Yeah the guy that has a paid-for house and zero stocks loses out asset-wise. That's a weird-ass balance of assets though.

What I'm trying to tell you is that stocks are assets too! If they went up due to inflation, that's not "profit". It just takes more weaker dollars to buy the same stocks again.

>Stocks objectively rose by a lot more than 30%. I don't want to argue with you about what actual inflation was.

Again, if inflation was 30% and stocks went up 60%, you have to figure inflation into the actual earnings to see if profits are actually good (i.e., your spending power increased by the expected amount). You can take losses in spending power as the numbers keep going up dramatically. It's not profit (in the most meaningful sense) unless your spending power goes up.

>I addressed salary in my earlier comment. If your salary didn't have any extra increase because of inflation, your employer is screwing you over, stop letting them do that.

You didn't actually address it because you keep missing the point. Number goes up != profit. As for employers, they suffer from inflation too. Even if you have the luxurious position of being able to name your price, your employer might simply not have the money. Inflation represents theft, and someone always gets screwed.

>"Own some stock" is not a scheme, it's what you're supposed to do with significant amounts of savings.

That is a strategy proposed for NPCs, and it isn't right for everyone. Even if it was, it does not really protect you from rapid inflation, because inflation is a sign of a bad economy. It's probably better than holding currency directly but profits may not keep up with inflation. And most of all, stockholders don't benefit from inflation. They at best avoid some of the effects of inflation, in the best case.

>I think it's fair to count on an extra salary increase. Tons of people got extra salary increases from inflation. Were they enough to compensate for all of inflation? Usually not. But they were enough to reduce the losses. Which is all I need to make my point.

That's a weak ass point, bro. Lots of people have fixed incomes, or otherwise can't demand salary hikes and get them in a timely manner. Wages always trail inflation, and the official cooked numbers are used to gaslight employees into taking less. Many workers get fired when their companies lose money due to inflation. There is no free lunch.

>Especially because lower wage jobs got better increases, and higher wage jobs correlate to owning at least a few thousand dollars of stock.

I don't believe they got better increases. Lower wage workers have a much larger proportion of their salaries going toward expenses, and they are far more at risk of literally not having enough money due to inflation. Higher-wage workers may be more likely to participate in the stock market, but as I've laid out that is not really adequate protection from inflation. People in debt may benefit from inflation, but forking over unearned benefits to people in debt is a misuse of resources and an injustice to well-meaning creditors.

If you're just trying to argue that people have ways of attempting to cope with inflation, you can stop now. I agree with that. What I object to is the attitude of "it's not so bad" that you're offering up. Inflation is bad and there's no real escape for most people. Our lives will really suck if inflation gets (more) out of hand.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's missing forest for the trees. The more important part is that average 3.7 people household was a single-income one . I would rather disagree with GP's: > My point is that inflation isn’t abstract and it isn’t a law of nature. It’s a deliberate approach to stealing your prosperity while you cheer it on. A lot of the inflation, including how suddenly a single-income household isn't a viable option for most peopl…

I think people are asking the wrong questions when it comes to inflation. It's not which president is at fault... It's who is profiting from it? It's not the minimum wage worker. It's not the standard office worker. What class has shown absolutely insane growth in wealth and income in the face of what looks like crippling inflation?

The only party "profiting" from inflation is the government which controls the money supply. If you keep the money supply constant, no one profits from inflation; inflation merely reflects supply and demand of the constant money supply vs all other goods and services on the market. Inflation does not reflect capital that is accumulated and taken off the market.
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