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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

forbes.com

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#371

Post by fragmede »

ben_w wrote: post #254
fragmede wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

so the tradeoff, for having to have both parents working for a very average family, is that they can surf the Internet and get Doordash? you come on. I'm not denying that we have a better quality of living today, but how much time do you have outside of weekends to just go fishing or whatever? all these labor saving devices were supposed to give us more leisure time but instead we're worrying harder than ever!

> instead we're worrying harder than ever I was going to say this typo was accurate, but now I realise I've never actually seen a detailed analysis of how much people worried in the past, just confident claims it was so.

haha good catch. we've only been tracking happiness since 2012, with Finland in the lead, though worry isn't the opposite of happiness, it would be fascinating to be able to have a global tally of how humans are feeling.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#372

Post by xedrac »

bongodongobob wrote: post #219
bugbuddy wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using a straw man. The reason we have a democracy and freedom of speech is so that each of us can voice our opinions and vote for those that share them. Unfortunately, nothing is perfect.

I'm using the term as it's used 9/10 times it comes up. I've never in my life met a self proclaimed fiscal conservative that didn't just mean "I want lower taxes". The way to lower taxes is a healthy and intelligent population. That is seen as a cost but is actually an investment that pays massive dividends. That's what a fiscal conservative would do, invest at the societal level. Otherwise they're basically just a l…

I only want lower taxes if I see my current tax money being spent very irresponsibly, like "forgiving" student loans...

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#373

Post by lupire »

mrep wrote: post #359
fireflash38 wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are asking the wrong questions when it comes to inflation. It's not which president is at fault... It's who is profiting from it? It's not the minimum wage worker. It's not the standard office worker. What class has shown absolutely insane growth in wealth and income in the face of what looks like crippling inflation?

Your standard office worker probably refinanced their mortgage at ~3% and is now laughing their way to the bank as their debt inflates away so they probably are profiting from it. I know I am. Your standard retiree on the other hand who holds a lot of bonds that got absolutely hammered by inflation and rising interest rates is not doing so well.

That 3% rate was plowed into a property whose price was inflated by exactly the amount that the 3% rate discounted the cost of money.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#374

Post by lupire »

exe34 wrote: post #310
TeMPOraL wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's missing forest for the trees. The more important part is that average 3.7 people household was a single-income one . I would rather disagree with GP's: > My point is that inflation isn’t abstract and it isn’t a law of nature. It’s a deliberate approach to stealing your prosperity while you cheer it on. A lot of the inflation, including how suddenly a single-income household isn't a viable option for most peopl…

It's not the market that's eating the "surplus". Economic inequality is at an all time high. Big corporations are posting record-busting profits. Inflation is driven by greedflation, mostly.

Corporations aren't natural persons. You have to look a the in/equity of the wealth of the people who enjoy the corporation's money.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#375

Post by czhu12 »

tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

As a counter point, this post by Matthew Yglesias might be interesting. Basically makes the case that the standard of living today is significantly higher than back then, and we wouldn’t be okay living today like we did back then.

https://www.slowboring.com/p/nostalgia-economics-is-totally-...

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#376

Post by lupire »

nytesky wrote: post #70
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

The “one income household” model of the 50s worked for two reasons. 1) the rest of the world was in ruins, so for 50s-60s US was sole industrial power more or less. 2) artificial labor “scarcity” where POC and women were banned from many occupations. The remaining available labor (ie white men) had more leverage.

Artificial labor scarcity is a good thing, to keep wealth in the hands of labor instead of capitalists. But it needs to be equitably distributed (more households working fewer hours each).

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#377

Post by lupire »

ethanbond wrote: post #323
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

This is easy: how much did an acre of land in Palo Alto cost then, and how much does it cost now? Why? Why does the price of land “need” to go up? It pays no wages, no rent, no suppliers, no anything. It’s just there being land, no matter what price it is. So why has its price gone up and who benefits from that?

Everyone who lives there benefits from that. Otherwise they wouldn't want to live there.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#378

Post by kasey_junk »

wakawaka28 wrote: post #356
kasey_junk wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is mostly survivor bias and cost of materials difference. We’ve used up most of the stores of large timber causing the price of it to go way up. At the same time the price of construction grade metal has come way down. Thus large beam construction has become a luxury. As for housing quality, post war tract homes were wildly worse. My wifes family still owns the tract home they lived in growing up. It was exposed…

>At the same time the price of construction grade metal has come way down. Thus large beam construction has become a luxury. Have you ever seen an old 2x4? This isn't "large beam" but it's obviously higher-quality than new 2x4s. >As for housing quality, post war tract homes were wildly worse. My wifes family still owns the tract home they lived in growing up. It was exposed concrete, exposed roof and no ductwork unti…

> Have you ever seen an old 2x4? This isn't "large beam" but it's obviously higher-quality than new 2x4s.

The 2x4 was decreased in size below 2x4 in the 1920s because shipping costs started dominating lumber prices because we’d depleted the forests near the cities where demand was greatest. It was further reduced during the second world war because building of necessity became standardized and again shipping volume was of primacy.

The US forest labs did tons of tests on this in the 1920s fwiw proving there was no quality difference.

Now there are many fine homes left from prior to these changes, but there are many many more crap homes that are gone because they weren’t capable of lasting. These are the homes you should be comparing to the average home built today.

But you mostly can’t. When you can, as in my example, you will find the older homes were built to similar specs as today from a structural stand point but much lower spec on systems, finish and especially size.

This doesn’t even touch on tenement apartments where most of the population lived in cities (the place housing costs have swelled the most).

These would quite literally be considered incapable of being housing now.

I am certainly not an expert on housing but my father was professionally and I did help my grandfather add an addition to our family farm house that was from the 1910s, when it was literally 1 room without plumbing (they’d done a previous remodel in the 60s to add bedrooms and plumbing, the materials from that remodel were not significantly different than the materials we used in the 90s).

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#379

Post by lupire »

fragmede wrote: post #253
zeroonetwothree wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The standard of living today is immensely higher. If you wanted to live at 1960 level you could certainly afford to do so. You’d have 1,000 sq ft of house, a single unreliable car, almost never go out to eat or travel, etc.

Is it? sure we have the Internet and big TVs and fast cars, but how much time do we actually have to enjoy them? quality of life is measured in more than just the things you have. I mean, yeah, if you're getting Doordash every meal and spending all your money that way, that's on you. Trader Joe's is frigging great, imo. but eating at home and having an older car isn't going to get me to a place where one median Ameri…

Ah, the 1960s. Have you tried living in a jungle, slaughtering villagers in their homes, fighting to overthrow a foreign government in exchange for college tuition? Good times.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#380

Post by lupire »

ethanbond wrote: post #325
bjornsing wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Today you have 2 people working 100 hours a week to support 1-2 additional people , while living in an apartment and living in a run down and crime infested neighborhood. Is that really true, or is it more a feeling many Americans have? As a Swede it’s a bit hard to relate to.

Crime is much much lower than it was decades ago almost everywhere in the US. Also “run down” in reference to cities is just not true outside of a few failed areas like Detroit. NYC today is dramatically nicer than it was decades ago.

Your data on New York "today" appears to be pre-opiod.
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