Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

forbes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

291–300 of 461 posts

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#291

Post by tyfon »

huytersd wrote: post #76
tossandthrow wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main thing is, that I could actually support a household of 6 people on a single income if I was allowed to fix the comfort at the 60s level. 1. No flying on vacation and only simple camping as vacation 2. No technology: Computers, phone, television. Nothing, and no associated costs with subscriptions, etc. 3. Eat like it was the 60s, mainly potatoes (I am from Northern Europe). That said: I truly believe in the…

Mainly potatoes is bullshit.

Sild og poteter (herring and potatoes) is still a meme for being poor in Norway.

Potatoes are a main staple in many ways outside of the cities even to this day.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#292

Post by camgunz »

rayiner wrote: post #280
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way was Reagan a fiscal conservative other than making the poor targets for pain? He destroyed half the social safety net in this country while running on a hideously bigoted platform and STILL ended up spending an insane amount of money compared to his predecessors. The only fiscal conservative of the past 50 years in the White House was Bill Clinton.

> He destroyed half the social safety net in this country Democrats controlled the House the whole time, so how’d he manage that? > while running on a hideously bigoted platform What a remarkable assertion.

Neoliberal democrats

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#293

Post by ta1243 »

4death4 wrote: post #142
woodruffw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home. This is a ridiculous exaggeration: the average US household was 3.7 people in the 1960s, not over 6[1]. There are good reasons to hold politicians to task for recent abnormally high inflation. But this comment is more of an atavistic fever dream of the past than an expression of those reasons. Edit: anot…

The average household also includes empty nesters and people who have moved out yet haven't started a family yet. The average number of children per family in the 60s was 2.3, which means quite a few families had 3 or 4 children.

Far more divorced now too, so more demand on housing, and more people want to live in cities than in the 1960s, leading to even more demand.

It all comes down to the cost of housing, at least in the UK where housing has been ridiculous for over 20 years. That housing is driven up to soak all available income by artificially constrained supply.

All available income has increased on a household basis because of egalitarian reasons -- more women work now, which means that more women have to work now. The excess income is lost to housing costs.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#294

Post by esoterica »

ein0p wrote: post #32

That seems subjectively accurate, looking at my grocery store receipts and $13/lb meat. Certainly more accurate than “3.5%” bullshit the “free press” is asking us to believe.

Did you read the article at all? Unless you were buying meat with personal loans the issue of whether or not interest expenses should be included in CPI has no relevance to correct measurement of food inflation.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#295

Post by ta1243 »

cpursley wrote: post #289
vineyardmike wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> houses are unquestionably more valuable today… They also have better insulation and construction, they’re all wired for electricity and plumbing, they all have advanced HVAC. Fancier kitchens with more plumbing, appliances and nicer materials. People have access to more furniture and fixtures and appliances to fill more home - no one needed laundry rooms before a washer/drier was invented. Few had garages. Don’t le…

The increase in housing prices are not at all proportional to these advancements in building techniques and materials.

Because of the availability of land. There are three costs for housing

1) Materiels

2) Labour

3) Land

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#296

Post by mapt »

notjoemama wrote: post #148
woodruffw wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current average US household has 3.1 members. There’s an important discussion to be had about cost of living and stagnant wages despite productivity, but as I said in another comment: that conversation needs to be factually grounded. Vague reactionary handwringing about the good old days isn’t going to cut it, especially when the good old days weren’t all that great by contemporary standards (or for contemporary…

If we’re to correct the exuberance of emotion then this reactionary reply doesn’t fit either. On the topic, I found this informative: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1963?amount=1 “ $1 in 1963 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $10.21 today, an increase of $9.21 over 61 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 3.88% per year between 1963 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of…

The entire point of this discussion is whether we should question the CPI figures you are using to 'debunk'... this discussion.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#297

Post by tossandthrow »

rayiner wrote: post #283
bongodongobob wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Fiscal conservativism" is the equivalent of a household not purchasing any insurance, not going to the doctor or dentist, and saying "look how affordable everything is if we cut out all those stupid things? It's wasteful spending!" Then you get into a car accident, go to the hospital, lose your job, and cry about the inefficiency of the market because you now have a huge bill that you can't pay. It's short sighted a…

> True fiscal conservatism would be all about social safety nets and free education to grow the economy Which is why Italy and France have such strong economies, right? What’s really standing in the way of economic growth is that the government isn’t paying for people to get free degrees in left wing studies.

or the Scandinavian countries that generally have higher spending power than the us.

remember not to conflate a strong economy with an economy that is worth living in. you can possess minimum paid jobs in order to make profits for shareholders and never see a dime of that wealth yourself, but alas, you live in a strong economy.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#298

Post by fire_lake »

rayiner wrote: post #280
MisterBastahrd wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way was Reagan a fiscal conservative other than making the poor targets for pain? He destroyed half the social safety net in this country while running on a hideously bigoted platform and STILL ended up spending an insane amount of money compared to his predecessors. The only fiscal conservative of the past 50 years in the White House was Bill Clinton.

> He destroyed half the social safety net in this country Democrats controlled the House the whole time, so how’d he manage that? > while running on a hideously bigoted platform What a remarkable assertion.

The monkey tape is revealing.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#299

Post by vineyardmike »

cpursley wrote: post #289
vineyardmike wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> houses are unquestionably more valuable today… They also have better insulation and construction, they’re all wired for electricity and plumbing, they all have advanced HVAC. Fancier kitchens with more plumbing, appliances and nicer materials. People have access to more furniture and fixtures and appliances to fill more home - no one needed laundry rooms before a washer/drier was invented. Few had garages. Don’t le…

The increase in housing prices are not at all proportional to these advancements in building techniques and materials.

It absolutely raises the “floor” of the housing costs - more materials simply means more costs. And the labor to do extra work means more costs - and quality labor is much more expensive today. Same reason a bigger house means more costs.

I would posit - admittedly without data - that outside of major metros where land is the clear dominant cost, most costs for housing increase is labor.

There are houses and empty lots available within 15min of downtown Cleveland that are selling for dozens of houses. They’re all empty lots or houses that need renovations. If you want a new construction in the same neighborhood, it’s $300k. The cost difference is labor or materials.

Obviously Cleveland is a cherry-picked example but I used to live there so I picked my old neighborhood. San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, etc are obviously mostly driven by land costs due to demand and very high incomes.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#300

Post by jlmorton »

tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

> McDonalds burgers were 15¢.

Okay, it was the McDonald's hamburger that seems to have been $0.15 in 1963. That is $1.53 in CPI-inflated 2024 dollars.

The cost today is $2.19. That's about a 0.6% difference in the compounding inflation rate over 61 years.

Post reply on HN