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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

forbes.com

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to our experience of the last 7 years, we should expect interest rate cuts, tax cuts, and more fiscal expansion either at the same time or in some sequence. Each of them will help solve our problem. There is no fiscal conservative left in America.

"Fiscal conservativism" is the equivalent of a household not purchasing any insurance, not going to the doctor or dentist, and saying "look how affordable everything is if we cut out all those stupid things? It's wasteful spending!" Then you get into a car accident, go to the hospital, lose your job, and cry about the inefficiency of the market because you now have a huge bill that you can't pay. It's short sighted a…

Woah, you sound like Adam Smith (the real one, not the one worshipped by alleged acolytes who clearly never read a word he wrote).

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#242
Government makes its money from a share every transaction between members of its society and others. Salaries, income, capital gains, and property taxes add on top of that. Inflation happens when supply can’t keep up with demand or when supply is restricted to increase the costs on demand by retailers / manufacturers / suppliers of energy, etc.

Putin’s war on Ukraine triggered an energy shortage which jumped prices on everything worldwide. When that happens retailers have an excuse to raise prices and the excess cash in the system meant consumers didn’t really resist for a while (didn’t reduce spending, and won’t until credit tightened and people start filing for bankruptcy en masse). Instead of resisting higher prices with less consumption, the excess cash in the system is still so superfluous that it’s going back into crypto and stock market excess.

Now the expanding war in the middle east is going to raise energy prices even more and re-boost the inflation on everyday goods. The accumulating high interest consumer and commercial real estate debt is a ticking time-bomb and when that puts tension on the banks, the ever increasing liquidity ratios allowed by Trump will come back with a vengeance.

One way to fight back is to move massively to EVs and Solar - which is already happening. The decreases impact of oil prices and foreign conflicts on the economy would reduce inflation.

Another way is to increase supply of goods that are inflating. Lower tariffs or provide subsidies for new supply in each area with an increase in prices and see how incumbents would be incentivized to keep their prices at bay. Housing is kind of a big chunk of the wallet share. Increase supply - provide a massive incentive for families who built their first home or buy a new home. Provide incentive for empty homes or unused investment properties to be put back to use - many fear squatting or rent control laws, eliminate or reduce those and see how quickly the rentable supply increases, lowering costs of rent. Interest rates are a blunt tool. Increase supply and lower prices organically.

If interest rates and the costs of capital are added into the equation that determines interest rates by proxi of inflation, you’d get a recurrent function (an infinite loop). You want signal in the data, not noise. The problem is the current signal is employment, not supply. Incentivize supply.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In other words you had 1 man working 50 hours a week afford a house... With inflation, we want to know about the change in value of the dollar only . We don't want to factor in the change in value of houses, food, etc. There is a place for understanding that too, but inflation is not it. Something like a cost of living index is more suitable to that kind of information. On that note, houses are unquestionably more…

> With inflation, we want to know about the change in value of the dollar only. By "we", you are referring to you and others who want to know only this. Some people (not many) want to know what is going on comprehensively, and in fact . For example: I would like to know if there is any strategic changing of formulas to improve appearances going on, like there has been at pretty much every single job I have ever worke…

General rule of people. If you have seen it at work it is happening in government. Being a public servant doesn't change human nature.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm using the term as it's used 9/10 times it comes up. I've never in my life met a self proclaimed fiscal conservative that didn't just mean "I want lower taxes". The way to lower taxes is a healthy and intelligent population. That is seen as a cost but is actually an investment that pays massive dividends. That's what a fiscal conservative would do, invest at the societal level. Otherwise they're basically just a l…

So a strawman. You set up the premise, you set up your misunderstanding, and then expect everyone else to follow your misunderstanding. You've even redefined what a "fiscal conservative" would actually do (if you were the one defining it). Then you pulled in "libertarian" out of nowhere. Which is an obvious set up for another strawman, so lets lean into it. Whats a "libertarian"?

I have no skin in this because I don't live in the USA and don't want to, but no, everything in the comment you replied to falsifies "So a strawman".

You can be wrong without being a strawman. When every example you have of X is Y, it's not a "strawman" to say "all X are Y" — when you're wrong like that, it's a black swan.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#245
post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

There are 153 million more people in the U.S. today than in 1963. The reason these neighborhoods are exclusive to the wealthy is that housing there is scarce despite growing demand due to job growth. Housing in places like the Bay Area is such a big portion of monthly expenses that stuff like Arby's 4 for $10 or whatever isn't whats hurting people the most. Lots of these issues just come down to housing and restricti…

It's also quite expensive partially because of garbage regulations on lot sizes and what can be built. NIMBYism is alive and well.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#246
post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

> Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home. They used older kids to watch younger kids, and generally let the kids fend more for themselves (my boomer dad was the oldest of 8 kids, and that was his experience, but having his grandparents die of spanish flu after WW2 hurt and helped a bit). I actually kind of admire that, and think we've lost somet…

>In a sense, FAANG salaries aren't especially high by historical standards

You can't be serious.

>$135k in 1980, my dad made more than that contracting in building nuclear plants

That's over six times the median household income in 1980. $135k today would still be nearly twice the median household income.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#247
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. Now everyone is competing to live in 15% of zipcodes You address the supply side of the "housing crisis", what about demand?

> 95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. 95% of white suburban zips might have been safe and livable, but nowhere close to 95% of all zips.

Pay no attention to the red lines behind the curtain.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#248
post #70
post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

The “one income household” model of the 50s worked for two reasons. 1) the rest of the world was in ruins, so for 50s-60s US was sole industrial power more or less. 2) artificial labor “scarcity” where POC and women were banned from many occupations. The remaining available labor (ie white men) had more leverage.

Housing costs.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did a college education cost in 1960? I would gladly trade WFH to be the one person supporting a family of 6. (Me, partner, two kids, two grandparents.) The Internet's great and all (although sometimes it seems like it was a mistake), but we're so far from 1 very average person being able to support a middle class life style for 6 people. Median income in 1960 was $5,600, which is equivalent to $60,000 today, bu…

Ah, the 1850s when life was good! The US Post is great and all, but I would gladly trade the US post for a large beaver-hunting territory! Horses are too fast! Walking is better. Or whatever... come on!

so the tradeoff, for having to have both parents working for a very average family, is that they can surf the Internet and get Doordash? you come on. I'm not denying that we have a better quality of living today, but how much time do you have outside of weekends to just go fishing or whatever? all these labor saving devices were supposed to give us more leisure time but instead we're worrying harder than ever!
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