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Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#201

Post by lowkey »

Retric wrote: post #78
woodruffw wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you couldn't. The average working male earning 6200 USD a year in 1963 was supporting 2-3 other people (i.e., the nuclear family), not 5. This is almost directly in line, via inflation, with the average US household income and size in 2024. I agree with the larger point about prosperity, and I think there are ways in which the US (and other developed countries) have gone backwards in QoL metrics. But a serious co…

Take your typical family of 4 living on 2 incomes today. Are they living in a 1,500sf house (median size in 1960)? Without AC, no cable TV, no computers, 1 car, no exotic / organic foods except from the garden, few toys, 60’s era medicine. Do they actually repair or even make clothes? How about home repairs? My mother was a teen in the 60’s and while objectively they were well above the median income for the time per…

You make some valid points but one nitpick: what we call organic food today, they simply called food in the 60's since all food was by definition organic.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#202

Post by zeroonetwothree »

tonymet wrote: post #97
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are 153 million more people in the U.S. today than in 1963. The reason these neighborhoods are exclusive to the wealthy is that housing there is scarce despite growing demand due to job growth. Housing in places like the Bay Area is such a big portion of monthly expenses that stuff like Arby's 4 for $10 or whatever isn't whats hurting people the most. Lots of these issues just come down to housing and restricti…

95% of zips in 1963 were safe and livable. Now everyone is competing to live in 15% of zipcodes You address the supply side of the "housing crisis", what about demand?

This is absurd. Crime is far lower than it was in 1963.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#203

Post by bongodongobob »

bugbuddy wrote: post #157
4death4 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average household also includes empty nesters and people who have moved out yet haven't started a family yet. The average number of children per family in the 60s was 2.3, which means quite a few families had 3 or 4 children.

According to our experience of the last 7 years, we should expect interest rate cuts, tax cuts, and more fiscal expansion either at the same time or in some sequence. Each of them will help solve our problem. There is no fiscal conservative left in America.

"Fiscal conservativism" is the equivalent of a household not purchasing any insurance, not going to the doctor or dentist, and saying "look how affordable everything is if we cut out all those stupid things? It's wasteful spending!" Then you get into a car accident, go to the hospital, lose your job, and cry about the inefficiency of the market because you now have a huge bill that you can't pay. It's short sighted at best. True fiscal conservatism would be all about social safety nets and free education to grow the economy, but y'all just want to save a few hundred bucks on your property taxes, everything else be damned.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#204

Post by zeroonetwothree »

fragmede wrote: post #80
adriand wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…

What did a college education cost in 1960? I would gladly trade WFH to be the one person supporting a family of 6. (Me, partner, two kids, two grandparents.) The Internet's great and all (although sometimes it seems like it was a mistake), but we're so far from 1 very average person being able to support a middle class life style for 6 people. Median income in 1960 was $5,600, which is equivalent to $60,000 today, bu…

The standard of living today is immensely higher. If you wanted to live at 1960 level you could certainly afford to do so. You’d have 1,000 sq ft of house, a single unreliable car, almost never go out to eat or travel, etc.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#205

Post by seaourfreed »

The reason the government lies on inflation isn't 2024 politics. Much older reason: 1) High inflation in 1960-1970s from stagflation 2) 1973 "COLAs" Law was passed, forcing increases in social security when inflation happens 3) By 1983, the US gov mathematically couldn't give those increases. Inflation raged across 1970s. So the government rigged CPI (inflation) numbers, by changing models 4) ShadowStats.com gives details and historic numbers 5) Lying about inflation numbers helped every politician from 1983 until now. 6) But citizens know the truth when they run out of money paying bills mid-month when they used to be able to pay for everything.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#206

Post by thebigman433 »

shrubble wrote: post #197
woodruffw wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Remember in 1963 only the man was working, and typically supported 4 kids, a wife and often parents in the home. This is a ridiculous exaggeration: the average US household was 3.7 people in the 1960s, not over 6[1]. There are good reasons to hold politicians to task for recent abnormally high inflation. But this comment is more of an atavistic fever dream of the past than an expression of those reasons. Edit: anot…

You can listen to Bing Crosby's Christmas album, to the song "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas", where the parents having 4 children (household size thus 6) is described, as an anecdotal supporting note... since it was a popular song for the masses, 4 kids was not seen as unusual.

You cant seriously be comparing actual cited stats for household size to lyrics from a song that was popular?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#207

Post by zeroonetwothree »

tonymet wrote: post #122
adriand wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…

Some aspects have improved, and others have declined. Home entertainment has more options, we spend more time at the TV and computer. Other aspects of life have declined. It's challenging because there are qualitative and aesthetic aspects to the process, so it takes some discussion to come up with a good understanding. Regardless CPI is misleading. The amount of time spent working over a lifetime to support the fami…

What specifically has declined? When I compare life that my grandparents had to now it is absurdly better in every way.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#208

Post by zeroonetwothree »

tonymet wrote: post #99
tossandthrow wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The main thing is, that I could actually support a household of 6 people on a single income if I was allowed to fix the comfort at the 60s level. 1. No flying on vacation and only simple camping as vacation 2. No technology: Computers, phone, television. Nothing, and no associated costs with subscriptions, etc. 3. Eat like it was the 60s, mainly potatoes (I am from Northern Europe). That said: I truly believe in the…

Like peter theil says, in 40 years only technology has improved , the real world has declined. Should we value technology so much that we cheer on the loss of the real world?

What exactly has declined?

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#209

Post by cmmeur01 »

mint2 wrote: post #160
tonymet wrote: post #16

I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…

There’s a number huge flaws in all that logic. Comparing Palo Alto circa 1960 to Palo Alto circa 2020 is frankly bizarre. But if we’re using that logic why stop at 1960? Coulda had that land for almost nothing in 1700, so there was infinite inflation from 1700 to 1960! Gasp! But what’s the result if we look at the price of a compute that a 1960 worker could buy vs a 2020 person? Let’s see a modern household has the e…

Love to eat and live in compute.

Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula

#210

Post by shrubble »

thebigman433 wrote: post #206
shrubble wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can listen to Bing Crosby's Christmas album, to the song "It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas", where the parents having 4 children (household size thus 6) is described, as an anecdotal supporting note... since it was a popular song for the masses, 4 kids was not seen as unusual.

You cant seriously be comparing actual cited stats for household size to lyrics from a song that was popular?

I specifically stated it was anecdotal... here are the census stats in graph form however: https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizat... ; 2.5 kids plus 2 adults is 4.5 in the household.
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