I don't really understand the argument at the heart of this article, which is "we should include interest rates in CPI". How do interest rates effect everyday people exactly, other than price inflation on goods and services (which is included separately in CPI)? The only way seems to be interest rates on personal loans and mortgages. So if anything, we should only include interest rates in proportion to how many peop…
Including interest rates in CPI muddles the distinction between the price of something vs how to fund the acquisition of something.
Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
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Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
Those aren’t fancy cuts or prime grade beef. Just regular steak at Kroger or Costco. Go see for yourself if you’re in the US. It really feels like the bottom is about to fall out from US economy. I don’t know how the low income families deal with a 30% increase in their grocery bills which were a significant chunk of their spending even a few years ago. Nor how they pay rent which has also increased massively.
> Those aren’t fancy cuts or prime grade beef. Just regular steak... I don’t know how the low income families deal with a 30% increase in their grocery bills I don't think low income families are buying steak - and price increases in luxury goods can understandably grow faster than in staples like non-steak beef.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#53I don't really understand the argument at the heart of this article, which is "we should include interest rates in CPI". How do interest rates effect everyday people exactly, other than price inflation on goods and services (which is included separately in CPI)? The only way seems to be interest rates on personal loans and mortgages. So if anything, we should only include interest rates in proportion to how many peop…
Most interest rates across the economy are set in relation to a benchmark rate, which loosely follow the Fed rate. E.g. the US prime rate.
This effects essentially all credit that isn't fixed rate, which is a huge portion.
How this effects you -- the price of credit that businesses use to function, which essentially every business uses, ultimately shows up in the cost of goods.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
But it’s not like our standard of living has remained static while we need to work more. A lot has changed. In 1960 the average single family home was 1300 square feet, now it’s more than double that, and it’s packed with amazing amenities and entertainment options. What would an iPad cost in 1960? Obviously the question is kind of nonsensical and yet on the other hand, if you were to try and quantify the price of ou…
The main thing is, that I could actually support a household of 6 people on a single income if I was allowed to fix the comfort at the 60s level. 1. No flying on vacation and only simple camping as vacation 2. No technology: Computers, phone, television. Nothing, and no associated costs with subscriptions, etc. 3. Eat like it was the 60s, mainly potatoes (I am from Northern Europe). That said: I truly believe in the…
I agree with the larger point about prosperity, and I think there are ways in which the US (and other developed countries) have gone backwards in QoL metrics. But a serious conversation about that needs to start with numbers rooted in reality, not a rose-glass view of the past.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#55I don't really understand the argument at the heart of this article, which is "we should include interest rates in CPI". How do interest rates effect everyday people exactly, other than price inflation on goods and services (which is included separately in CPI)? The only way seems to be interest rates on personal loans and mortgages. So if anything, we should only include interest rates in proportion to how many peop…
Is that right? What about people that didn't buy a home in 2023 because interest rates were high (i.e. they the impact of high interest rates was so large that they _wouldn't appear_ in your weighting because they were pushed out of the market)?
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#56I don't really understand the argument at the heart of this article, which is "we should include interest rates in CPI". How do interest rates effect everyday people exactly, other than price inflation on goods and services (which is included separately in CPI)? The only way seems to be interest rates on personal loans and mortgages. So if anything, we should only include interest rates in proportion to how many peop…
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#57That seems subjectively accurate, looking at my grocery store receipts and $13/lb meat. Certainly more accurate than “3.5%” bullshit the “free press” is asking us to believe.
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#58I recommend people use many different indicators to get a mental model of inflation, and you will notice that CPI does not represent inflation well. The memes of Arby’s 5 for $5 becoming 4 for $10 are more informative than the CPI numbers. Don’t let the shock at the grocery store wear off – it’s real and painful despite what the news tells you. True inflation would measure the amount of prosperity achieved per hour w…
> In other words you had 1 man working 50 hours a week afford a house... With inflation, we want to know about the change in value of the dollar only . We don't want to factor in the change in value of houses, food, etc. There is a place for understanding that too, but inflation is not it. Something like a cost of living index is more suitable to that kind of information. On that note, houses are unquestionably more…
By "we", you are referring to you and others who want to know only this.
Some people (not many) want to know what is going on comprehensively, and in fact. For example: I would like to know if there is any strategic changing of formulas to improve appearances going on, like there has been at pretty much every single job I have ever worked on.
But to be fair, this is a subjective personal preference, and an unusual one at that. Most people prefer simplistic, memetic representations of reality (though, few can agree on which memes).
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#59It's interesting that consumer sentiment apparently tracks the older formula more closely. Presumably we have data that could allow us to include "the price of money" in inflation metrics, perhaps weighed based on how much the average American borrows.
Headline consumer sentiment is polluted by junk like this article. People report their personal household situation is fine and they expect it to continue being at least this good or better in 1 and 5 years. But they've heard so much shadowstats horseshit on the radio that they are compelled to stake out a negative view on the economy as a whole. In the latest UMich consumer survey majority of respondents expect thei…
Re: Summers: Inflation Reached 18% in 2022 Using the Government's Previous Formula
#60Earlier quoted context omitted.
Including interest rates in CPI muddles the distinction between the price of something vs how to fund the acquisition of something.
Interest expense is a real cost people pay. Why ignore it?
For purposes of setting Fed rates, it makes sense to exclude it.
For purposes of measuring perceived inflation, it makes sense to include it.