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After Credentials

paulgraham.com

61–70 of 209 posts

Re: After Credentials

#61
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The YC brand has little weight to the customers of a startup, and without those a startup quickly dies. It would be interesting to see numbers on that. Informally, I noticed that back when reddit was good, anyone who was asked had either heard about it because it was YC-funded, or heard about it from someone who heard about it that way. I'm not certain, but I would probably bet that the submitters of, say "Man senten…

Reddit's a unique case because their initial user base (like News.YC's) consisted of other YC founders. And since they couldn't afford any form of promotion that cost money, news of the site spread mainly from those users.

I'm finding it difficult to square your assertion that Reddit is "unique" in this respect with the assertion that it's the web that's "making marketing and distribution free".

The only way that web marketing is "free" is if product awareness spreads between customers, or is pushed through the founders' personal contacts. Wouldn't this imply that we could expect this phenomenon - the initial user base being in some way close to the founders - to grow as the industry approaches the asymptotes you assert it is heading for?

Re: After Credentials

#62
post #38

The left likes credentials? The right doesn't like intergenerational transmission of income? These aren't any left or right I recognize. Who is PG thinking of?

I think the idea is that leftist policies retard the shift from credentialing and large organizations to small, nimble organizations by being anti-business. Therefore, by default leftist policies stick us with credentialing. This is not a conscious goal of the left, it's just what happens.

I'm sure the left would disagree with this, but that's the right-wing point of view.

Re: After Credentials

#63

i believe, without having done any research, that credentialism worldwide has GROWN massively as the middle classes try to protect their positions for the selfish reasons PG states. less biased, more thoughtful research would make for a more reasoned debate about an important topic, to Y combinator, and to wider society.

So without doing any research, you arbitrarily take the opposite position and demand that more research be done? Feels like a non sequitur...

Re: After Credentials

#64
post #23
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of what you say is true, but it's not true that the principal value of YC is the brand name. The YC brand has little weight to the customers of a startup, and without those it quickly dies. YC's principal value is the advice we (and the other YC startups) offer. The part you're right about is that "admission" to YC is structurally a lot like college or grad school admissions. The difference, though, is that our…

College admissions officers do not, as far as I know, follow up on the careers of the people they accept and see how they did. I'm not sure that's true - in the UK at least, universities often issue press releases when one of their alumni does something notable (like becoming the Prime Minster of Thailand for example, which Oxford is crowing about at the moment).

Possibly because the UK is obsessed with league tables for universities, secondary schools and even primary schools. The University of York send me an annual survey to find out what I'm up to - I'm pretty sure they gather this data on all (willing) alumni, and where the data shows them in a good light they certainly make no secret of it at open days, etc.

Re: After Credentials

#65
post #56
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this entire "lots of small firms are the future" meme is probably just wrong. paul graham knows a lot about websites but very little about the rest of the economy. show me the ten person company that can produce the equipment to generate and transmit electricity. or food production. where are all the ma and pa grocery stores? and banking...we have fewer banks now than ever and the number is still dropping. and PCs...…

Music production. Video production. Any industry where the capital costs are low, or where a small group of niche specialists can add a significant multiplier to the value chain are candidates for this sort of effect. As more industrial tasks are farmed out to large companies that specialize in flexible production it is possible that you will see this show up in industries that are currently have strong vertical inte…

> Any industry where the capital costs are low

How do these things change with time, though? Do they always, invariably drop? Might computing conceivably go through another phase where things get consolidated into some kind of big servers that cost a ton of money? Doesn't sound likely to me, but I'm not very good at predicting the future. Actual research into these trends would be interesting to see.

Re: After Credentials

#66
Ask someone who works at Google if there was ever a time when in the company's history when a Stanford or Berkeley degree wasn't a major advantage in the hiring process. Even at a small startup, you're probably going to have more faith in an unknown from Stanford than an unknown from Western Kentucky U.

Paul's essay is interesting, but I don't think any of recent academic / sociological studies would confirm his conclusions. In general, the best indicator of one's success is (a) your parent's income and (b) your education. Academic connections open so many more doors and opportunities, even to those who don't have the intelligence and skills to match. An idiot who graduates from an unknown college will probably go nowhere, but one from Stanford may end up as CEO. (Personally, I've seen the latter occur.)

Re: After Credentials

#67
post #58
post #46

I agree with much in the essay, but it's interesting that PG used law as an example of an organization that broke from the deferred compensation principle. Most "elite" law firms actually do pay by seniority. An associate is generally paid according to the number of years he or she has been with the firm. And while the salaries for young lawyers is very high, they are actually (often) working for the potential of bec…

> I think Law, Medicine, and other professions will be the holdouts against the trend away from school-based credentials. It's probably no surprise - these are the few sectors of the economy that can actually ban someone (with the full weight of government behind them) from practicing based on degrees and exams. These are also fields where the actions of a single bad/incompetent actor can have very, very serious cons…

I definitely don't want to give the impression that I am opposed to credentials in all instances. Actually, Medicine isn't that great an example, because you don't become licensed as a physician or surgeon until you've completed a residency - ie., you've proved you can "do it". Whereas in Law, you only need to obtain a degree and pass an exam. So in a way, you really are relying on reputation in law - which may be why "big firms" like to broadcast their connections with Ivies and so forth.

Anyway, the licensing process for MDs is so different from JDs that I shouldn't have mentioned them in the same sentence.

Here's my worry, though. If a truly bright person can learn much more quickly than the average, that person may eventually be discouraged from pursuing law (or even medicine) because they are essentially throttled by the system. Also, credentials may not matter as much to this person, because they seek out areas where they can prove themselves without worrying about the particular degree.

If this happens (and I'll admit it is unlikely in the near term), you could have a situation where professions that make heavy use of credentials are most appealing to those who are good at getting credentials, but not much good at anything else. For those folks, the payoff of a credential is highest. Whereas for someone who could do well with or without a credential, it's just a path with many irritating roadblocks.

The interesting thing will be to see if the professions adapt. Perhaps there are some creative ways to retain some of the valuable aspects of credentialing without forcing everyone to learn at the same pace? Perhaps a heavier focus on exams, rather than than hours or years logged in a program? Another approach might be to limit the most restrictive licensing to more specialized cases - ie, require a 3 year degree and full membership in the bar (and, I'd hope, even more than that) to try a death penalty case, but require a shorter and easier exam for more transactional work where a minor amount of money is on the line. Even in medicine, I suspect that nurses can handle many of the things that only MDs are currently allowed to do (in some states, nurse practitioners can do this - a two year MS followed by a one year apprenticeship and exam is sufficient to independently treat some cases, rather than a 4 year degree followed by a three year residency).

Hard to say if it can happen, or if it is even desirable. But I'd guess there will be pressure, and that's not necessarily a bad thing, depending on how it all goes down...

Re: After Credentials

#68
post #4

I think Paul is treading ideas with some interesting implications for him, personally. He is the head of an organization that funds companies on the basis of a written & oral exam, whose principal selling point is the transmission of "credentials" upon the kids they pick. Part of it is the kids' merit, but part of it is YC's past success. People go to YC for many of the same reasons people went to Stanford -- past se…

We're (TicketStumbler) a pretty good example of a startup that hasn't really been affected by being a YC company. [1] I did YC because it seemed interesting and I needed a good excuse to quit my job. [2] Tom was bored and wanted to get out of Ohio. When we launched on Techcrunch, we were met with widespread apathy. Techcrunch readers, by and large, weren't our target market and didn't give two shits about a ticket si…

[deleted]

Re: After Credentials

#69
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of what you say is true, but it's not true that the principal value of YC is the brand name. The YC brand has little weight to the customers of a startup, and without those it quickly dies. YC's principal value is the advice we (and the other YC startups) offer. The part you're right about is that "admission" to YC is structurally a lot like college or grad school admissions. The difference, though, is that our…

College admissions officers do not, as far as I know, follow up on the careers of the people they accept and see how they did. In Canada, one of the strongest selling points of universities is what fraction of their students got a job in a related field within X years of graduation -- so at least here, institutions do track this sort of data. In addition, there's a lot of work done to validate admissions processes ba…

I've heard that U.S. universities have similar "black books." It's too bad they don't publish their data, because that would be an interesting way to compare the performance of high schools.

Re: After Credentials

#70
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of what you say is true, but it's not true that the principal value of YC is the brand name. The YC brand has little weight to the customers of a startup, and without those it quickly dies. YC's principal value is the advice we (and the other YC startups) offer. The part you're right about is that "admission" to YC is structurally a lot like college or grad school admissions. The difference, though, is that our…

Nobel Prizes per undergraduate is an interesting measure. More than one in every 1000 Caltech undergrads wins a Nobel Prize, and that number rises substantially if one restricts just to science students, not engineering (which doesn't have a Nobel). This suggests that the admissions office there is doing something right.

Are you controlling for those not admitted that went to similar caliber schools, or have an example of how that statistic compares to those schools with a similar quality applicant pool?
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