Earlier quoted context omitted.
Voldemort is fictional and so are bumbling wizard apprentices. Toy-level, not-yet-harmful AIs on the other hand are real. And so are efforts to make them more powerful. So the proposition that more powerful AIs will exist in the future is far more likely than an evil super wizard coming into existence. And I don't think literal 5-word-magic-incantation mind control is essential for an AI to be dangerous. More subtle…
> Toy-level, not-yet-harmful AIs on the other hand are real. A computer that can cause harm is much different than the absurd claims that I am disagreeing with. The extraordinary claims that are equivalent to saying that the imperious curse exists would be the magic computers that create diamond nanobots and mind control humans. > that more powerful AIs will exist in the future Bad argument. Non safe Boxes exist in r…
Also, it seems obvious that the standard of evidence that "AI could cause extinction" can't be observing an extinction level event, because at that point it would be too late. Considering that preventive measures would take time and safety margin, which level of evidence would be sufficient to motivate serious countermeasures?