21–30 of 118 posts
I really just hope consumers will have access to both sides. I know people freak out about hardware backdoors but some of the cheap tech coming out of China sure is cool
That won't be that cheap for long though (and I don't see that as a bad thing either) Looking at Huawei or Xiaomi goods, the quality is there and the prices are also getting noticeably higher accordingly.
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The theory is that the Chinese middle class has already peaked given the population decline, economic woes, and shrinking growth of exports to the West. As but one signal, the recent dumping of Chinese EVs has less to do with industrial superiority and more to do with their own shrinking domestic demand. The Chinese market is saturated and consumer demand has slowed. India's growth is predicted to top China's before…
China is in a weird place that is hard to predict. They have some troubling economic and demographic problems as you said, but also have built up strong tech and manufacturing capabilities. We could easily see China continue to grow in power, even if the middle class continues to be poor.
One of the theories of China's recent, intense sabre rattling is that demographically they'll be in no position to militarily take Taiwan in 20 years. So it's now/soon or never.
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That won't be that cheap for long though (and I don't see that as a bad thing either) Looking at Huawei or Xiaomi goods, the quality is there and the prices are also getting noticeably higher accordingly.
Agreed though the availability of both would keep prices low by virtue of competition
Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reality, but they can certainly fix the appearance of reality and make the people judging THEM only observe a fixed reality.
Plus this is something that "infects" everything. If there is ONE western thing the CCP wants to hide from Chinese, they'll have to cut access to a LOT of western products just to hide a few small things they really don't want to get out (better ballpoint pens in the west perhaps?). It's funny how this starts too. Like in the USSR, in China when it started it was more-or-less positive. They outlawed better products and celebrated chinese industry catching up. Needless to say, they're a government. The focus has shifted to just outlawing better products, and now they're really more often destroying people who help chinese industry catch up, because ... that does the absolute #1 forbidden thing: it gives the wrong politicians a leg up over others. It gives, to be exact, random politicians a leg up over others ... which of course quickly gets a wrong one.
Hopefully it'll only mean Chinese people never see western products, unless specific products the party wants them to use. Hopefully we'll retain access to Chinese goods.
Though of course, it'll rapidly become INCREDIBLY rewarding for anyone with a great idea to run to the west. In the west, you'll get a great job at the very least. Idea great enough? You get to be rich. You stay in China with a great idea? You get killed ...
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Agreed though the availability of both would keep prices low by virtue of competition
They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will literally kill them if they're not the best at everything, and of course they will fuck up some bits. So they will outlaw access to foreign technology, to hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state". Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reali…
What use are chip factories in the United States when you cannot sell them to the largest market of chips that only will become even more larger as Chinese middle class and their consumption grows?
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Agreed though the availability of both would keep prices low by virtue of competition
They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will literally kill them if they're not the best at everything, and of course they will fuck up some bits. So they will outlaw access to foreign technology, to hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state". Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reali…
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Agreed though the availability of both would keep prices low by virtue of competition
They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will literally kill them if they're not the best at everything, and of course they will fuck up some bits. So they will outlaw access to foreign technology, to hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state". Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reali…
Two choice seem preferable over 1 choice even if the one is subject to state interference. (and lets be real here US side interferes a lot too - see sanctions & restrictions).
>hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state".
You assume there will be something to be embarassed about. Given current trajectory I'm more concerned about the opposite. Western side getting left in the dust in say a decade.
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They won't, for the same reason the USSR didn't. The people making these chinese goods are part of the government. They're also part of a government that will literally kill them if they're not the best at everything, and of course they will fuck up some bits. So they will outlaw access to foreign technology, to hide how they're "embarassing the Chinese state". Because totalitarian ideologies ... they can't fix reali…
That is what the West tells itself and God I wish that was true.