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The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

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Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#81

Post by seanmcdirmid »

1970-01-01 wrote: post #80

>The introduction of cheap Chinese autos — which are so inexpensive because they are backed with the power and funding of the Chinese government — to the American market could end up being an extinction-level event for the U.S. auto sector,” the organization writes. This would never happen. The industry is too big to fail. It would get bailed out just like it did during the 2008 crisis.

I don't know. It seems to me that every American brand other than Tesla is pretty much a non-concern outside of pickups. We could always wind up with America car production being dominated by the Germans and Japanese along with Tesla, with Ford, GM, and Chrysler being a thing of the past. Heck, we could wind up with Chinese autos produced in the USA, because how different is Mississippi from Henan anyways?

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#82

Post by WorldMaker »

boringg wrote: post #23

Everyone being like - we don't care about cars that small. It's the equivalent at looking at LLMs two years ago and being - it can't perform anything. It's an entry point and they will get bigger and better and more attractive - to the benefit of consumers upping the competition. Kia was written off when it first came to town. US domestics should be concerned - they wrote off Tesla as well.

Before Kia it was Honda and Toyota in the 80s/90s. Before that there was the 70s love affair with small Italian and British imports like Fiat and Mini. Before that was the 60s love affair with Volkswagen. It's a cycle that has happened so many times already in the US of imports filling small car niches (both niches that are small and large niches that include smaller cars) the domestic manufacturers ignore for too many years at a time. You would almost think that US manufacturers would have learned by now given how many times it has repeated.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#83

Post by AtlasBarfed »

hangonhn wrote: post #47
GenerWork wrote: post #5

Would BYD even be able to sell it here for $10k? Pretty sure Trump slapped a bunch of tariffs on Chinese vehicles, and Biden may have hiked those tariffs. To me, the logical step is for Chinese vehicles to build factories in Mexico and then ship vehicles into the country so they qualify as NAFTA vehicles. No way will it be $10k, but it certainly won't be $40k like other electric vehicles.

> To me, the logical step is for Chinese vehicles to build factories in Mexico and then ship vehicles into the country so they qualify as NAFTA vehicles. No way will it be $10k, but it certainly won't be $40k like other electric vehicles. I wouldn't be so sure it won't be $10k. The cost of labor in China has been going up for a while now. China's strength in the EV market comes from their near monopoly on the supply…

They also have abnormal access to financing as well, although that remains to be seen long term.

I believe that Chinese car companies are real, because the underlying battery manufacturers (BYD again, CATL, etc) are all leading in the mass market chemistries of LFP and Sodium Ion.

WHich by the way are the key enablers of the cheap car.

What should be REALLY concerning to car manufacturers isn't that this car is 10,000$. Sodium Ion is poised to be 25-40% the cost of lithium ion (cobalt/nickel), and LFP may be dropping from the 70% to 50% or less, for an equivalent pack. Both of those chemistries are improving on the roadmaps to being currently at 150 wh/kg (sodium ion) and 200+ wh/kg (lfp) to 200 wh/kg sodium and 250 lfp.

Anyway, what that means is that EVs aren't just going to reach ICE parity soon (probably already is in China and Tesla with their high car margin), they are going to shoot past in quickly.

So that $10,000 car might be $9,000 in two years, then $8,000 in four years, etc.

"Big ICE" is in trouble if it doesn't get its platform development and battery supply ducks in a row, Tesla won't eat their lunch, the Chinese will.

You know, assuming financial armageddon + autocratic dysfunction + demographics + Taiwan invasion sanctions don't crater the Chinese. As you stated, I can see Chinese companies diversifying their production internationally to hedge against their own government.

These are interesting times.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#84

Post by iambateman »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #55
iambateman wrote: post #39

"The Chinese government wants to wipe out American automakers by introducing competitively priced cars" is a PR scare tactic. It's exactly what I would say if I were a PR person trying to figure out how to protect my company's interests. Cars are imported from all over the world, and so long as they meet American safety standards, I think they should be. Also if I could buy a safe, new EV for $10,000, no matter how s…

> so long as they meet American safety standards, I think they should be The question is to what degree those standards were written for safety versus protectionism, and to what degree any other market cares about them.

I agree that that question is important but I view it as separate.

I know nothing about car safety, so I have to take the recommendations on authority that they are necessary.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#85

Post by baggy_trough »

paxys wrote: post #70
zalthor wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/why-can-t...

There are plenty of small cars made outside of China. Why do you think not a single auto manufacturer worldwide bothers to export their best selling models to the US? The market here wants SUVs and trucks, not $15K subcompacts.

We don't know what the market wants, because the government has made it very difficult to supply such a subcompact.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#86

Post by paxys »

baggy_trough wrote: post #85
paxys wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are plenty of small cars made outside of China. Why do you think not a single auto manufacturer worldwide bothers to export their best selling models to the US? The market here wants SUVs and trucks, not $15K subcompacts.

We don't know what the market wants, because the government has made it very difficult to supply such a subcompact.

Outside of Chinese-made vehicles the US has probably the most open auto import market in the world. Most manufacturers enjoy a 2.5% tariff, which is a joke, and not reciprocated anywhere in the world. All these foreign manufacturers are selling $25-50K+ cars just fine (over 4 million of them every year in fact). It's the US market that is rejecting lower priced cars.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#87

Post by baggy_trough »

paxys wrote: post #86
baggy_trough wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't know what the market wants, because the government has made it very difficult to supply such a subcompact.

Outside of Chinese-made vehicles the US has probably the most open auto import market in the world. Most manufacturers enjoy a 2.5% tariff, which is a joke, and not reciprocated anywhere in the world. All these foreign manufacturers are selling $25-50K+ cars just fine (over 4 million of them every year in fact). It's the US market that is rejecting lower priced cars.

Safety and other regulations still apply.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#89

Post by paxys »

baggy_trough wrote: post #87
paxys wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Outside of Chinese-made vehicles the US has probably the most open auto import market in the world. Most manufacturers enjoy a 2.5% tariff, which is a joke, and not reciprocated anywhere in the world. All these foreign manufacturers are selling $25-50K+ cars just fine (over 4 million of them every year in fact). It's the US market that is rejecting lower priced cars.

Safety and other regulations still apply.

European safety and environmental standards are much higher than here.

Re: The $10k BYD Seagull EV is scaring the U.S. auto industry

#90

Post by vidanay »

iambateman wrote: post #39

"The Chinese government wants to wipe out American automakers by introducing competitively priced cars" is a PR scare tactic. It's exactly what I would say if I were a PR person trying to figure out how to protect my company's interests. Cars are imported from all over the world, and so long as they meet American safety standards, I think they should be. Also if I could buy a safe, new EV for $10,000, no matter how s…

> Just because Americans have never purchased small, affordable cars _en masse_ before doesn't mean they won't in the future.

I'm guessing you weren't around in the 80s?

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