Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

That, there is no debate.

> what's happening in the irish property market.

This is happening in many countries' property markets, including the US, Canada, UK, Australia, etc.

Two monetary factors can be used to purchase a house: income and wealth. You are assuming income should the only factor at play (it ought to be, but it is not), but not realizing that wealth is also used. The problem is that houses are now treated as a wealth asset, like a stock, with the expectations of 5-10% YoY growth, so there is an enormous appetite for dumping large savings/wealth into them.

> This won't raise the median price to 600k, it will take way more sales to shift the median (if we're talking about the mean then this is more likely).

Do you price a stock based on the median transaction of the last 10 years? No, because they are usually increasing in value. The most recent transactions provide a better estimate on approximately what the median or mean is. The shorter the time interval, the less data points, but the more accurate.

The crux of what you're missing is that home prices for everyone are set on the margin of most recent transactions, and income isn't the whole story, as that assumption isn't making sense to you or the data. It's because there is saved up wealth that is a large factor in price too.

The solution is to build enough to break housing as an indefinite 7% YoY asset, which will stop this awful positive feedback loop.

Correct that the use of terminology is incorrect because no country can go bankrupt. But the point remains.

>We massively increased taxes, massively cut spending, and borrowed vast amounts of money. We spent more per capita bailing out banks than anywhere else on earth. Again, criticism would generally be of _doing that, rather than becoming bankrupt_.

corporate tax for example was ~38% in 1996, 10 years later after bankruptcy it was 12.5%.

Personal income tax was ~48% in 1996, 10 years later, it was 42%.

Spending vs gdp, 38.6% gdp in 1996, 33.6% in 2006.

I dont agree with your analysis at all. Moreover these 'we' clearly indicate to me you're not objective.

>By any reasonable metric Ireland was in a far better fiscal state in 2019 than in 2006, and we had a fairly extensive and expensive response to covid.

Until a few days ago I didnt know what ireland did for covid. But no, what north america did was significant different from what ireland did. The irish response seemed to have been about reverse course years earlier which is shocking to me.

The reality is that ireland couldnt afford a covid response and the government fully was aware.

>This is incorrect. Ireland's marginal rate has been 48% or 52% depending on whether you count PRSI (which is not strictly an income tax), has been for over a decade, and continues to be.

My source is The Office of the Revenue Commissioners

https://www.revenue.ie/en/personal-tax-credits-reliefs-and-e...

Clearly indicating 40%.

>Actually, you know what, I'm not going through the rest of this. This is peak HackerNews; absolute nonsense, stated confidently. I'd suspect the involvement of an LLM, but for the grammar.

"Absolute nonsense" is the biased person who has gotten several fact incorrect.