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SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

nasa.gov

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Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#71

Post by InclinedPlane »

rbanffy wrote: post #63
InclinedPlane wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, let's take the Shuttle off the table, which is no longer in service and was by far the most expensive launch vehicle in extensive service in history. Right now, the price of a Falcon 9 launch is around $50mil, this translates to $4.8/g to LEO or $16.7/g to GTO (which is where most satellites go). This compares very favorably to the price of other western launchers (Atlas V: $18/g, Ariane 5: $21/g, Delta IV: $1…

> as competitive pressure to lower their profit margin increases Assuming current incumbents are capable of doing that. That's a big if. If their competition can't effectively compete, their profit margins will remain steady allowing them to develop more interesting vehicles/capabilities.

True enough. Even so, it's in their best interests long term to price themselves a decent amount below the cheapest competition (but not too much below) to make sure they're maintaining a high enough marketshare to maximize their total profit, not just per unit profits.

Also, to some degree as the space tourism market gains traction there will be some amount of competitive pressure on the costs of orbital tourism from the sub-orbital market (Virgin Galactic and others). More so, once SpaceX has proven their business model it will drive a lot of investment capital to their competitors (both old and new) to try to level the playing field.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#72

Post by thematt »

slug wrote: post #37
cryptoz wrote: post #7

I can't wait! SpaceX is the most amazing company right now. They're work is the exact opposite of the trivial-to-start social networking apps, the tedium of online advertising. They want to send people to Mars . And they're launching to the ISS tomorrow, the most expensive object ever built by humanity. They have the world's trust. They have the world's best engineers. And they have some intense ambition and lots of…

I would love to work there but they only recruit U.S. citizens and although I was contacted by them last year, it ended up going nowhere when I mentioned this "small" detail. Can you elaborate on your phone interview?

It's not a small detail, it's because of ITAR -- and it's not taken lightly. Space companies can't even speak to people who aren't US citizens.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#73

Post by davidcuddeback »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #47
joshuahedlund wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give some numbers for some of the "vast" cost difference we're talking about (even if they're ballpark figures)?

First, let's take the Shuttle off the table, which is no longer in service and was by far the most expensive launch vehicle in extensive service in history. Right now, the price of a Falcon 9 launch is around $50mil, this translates to $4.8/g to LEO or $16.7/g to GTO (which is where most satellites go). This compares very favorably to the price of other western launchers (Atlas V: $18/g, Ariane 5: $21/g, Delta IV: $1…

I think the maiden flight of the Falcon Heavy is slated for this year: http://www.spacearchive.info/vafbsked.htm

With the way launches tend to slip, I wouldn't be surprised if you're right about it happening next year, but as of right now, it's on Vandenberg's launch schedule for 2012.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#74

Post by tsotha »

ANH wrote: post #45
joshuahedlund wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you give some numbers for some of the "vast" cost difference we're talking about (even if they're ballpark figures)?

In the press conference about an hour ago, I think I heard Gwynne Shotwell (President, SpaceX) say Russia offers a seat for $63M, whereas SpaceX will be offering NASA Dragon launches in the $30M range. A Dragon holds seven astronauts.

The Russians were offering seats in the $30M range as well until the shuttle was retired. There was a lot of anger over the adjustment.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#75

Post by tsotha »

slug wrote: post #37
cryptoz wrote: post #7

I can't wait! SpaceX is the most amazing company right now. They're work is the exact opposite of the trivial-to-start social networking apps, the tedium of online advertising. They want to send people to Mars . And they're launching to the ISS tomorrow, the most expensive object ever built by humanity. They have the world's trust. They have the world's best engineers. And they have some intense ambition and lots of…

I would love to work there but they only recruit U.S. citizens and although I was contacted by them last year, it ended up going nowhere when I mentioned this "small" detail. Can you elaborate on your phone interview?

All rocket technology is considered military technology by the US government (and probably every other government). There really isn't that much difference between a rocket that can put you into LEO and a rocket that can deliver a nuke to your enemies. And, as the North Koreans have proven, it's not the easiest thing in the world to get right.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#76

Post by tsotha »

Zaak wrote: post #50
nightski wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd love to work there. Just had a friend interview in fact (didn't quite make it but enjoyed the experience). The only concern is salary and working conditions. I mean I get the impact of the work and it is true that is by far the most important consideration for any engineer. But I have worked for smaller companies before where salary was well below average and there were 70-80-90 hour weeks. It was incredibly demo…

This is a question I have about SpaceX. How much of their low development and launch costs depend on having large numbers of people willing to sacrifice compensation to work for such a transformative company? I don't know anything solid about this, but I would very much like to know.

They claim the savings come from the fact that they're basically using the same engine for everything, i.e. a Falcon 9 has a cluster of the same engine used in the Falcon 1, and the Falcon Heavy will have three clusters of the same engine.

Though I'm sure they don't pay more than it takes to get the talent they want. Why would they?

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#77

Post by ChuckMcM »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #30

I'll add my voice to the chorus of folks gushing about how awesome this is, but here's a list of reason on just WHY this is so awesome. Straight off the top, this is only the third launch of the Falcon 9. This rocket alone represents a dramatic disruption of the entire orbital launch industry, offering to make launch of both humans and cargo cheaper than it's ever been by an incredibly wide margin. If this rocket pro…

And once we get one of ULA's long duration cryogenic vehicles [1] in orbit the game changes tremendously.

An in-orbit depot system for fuel would open up the moon pretty effectively.

[1] http://www.ulalaunch.com/site/docs/publications/Integrated%2...

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#78

Post by zem »

kmm wrote: post #42
StevenRayOrr wrote: post #34

I get caught up in the romantics of this. We could be explorers again like Magellan or Shackleton, this time charting the vast, infinitude of the stars. We could see planets and moons that are but specks in a telescope. It has been so easy, over the last few years, to become jaded with politics and our society and the minutia of technology. SpaceX gets me excited about "the future (of our species)" which hasn't happe…

Doesn't it bother you that you won't be the one doing the exploring? I'm insanely envious of these people and sometimes I wish manned spaceflight would end. Standing on the Moon sounds like the most amazing experience I can imagine and it pains me that I won't ever get there and even if I would, I would just be the umpteenth tourist, littering up the place.

anne passovoy wrote a beautiful song about this, "harbors". you can see the lyrics here[1], though sadly it's hard to find a recording.

[1] http://www.stonekettle.com/2011/07/next-step-americas-future...

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#79

Post by baddox »

arethuza wrote: post #10
cryptoz wrote: post #7

I can't wait! SpaceX is the most amazing company right now. They're work is the exact opposite of the trivial-to-start social networking apps, the tedium of online advertising. They want to send people to Mars . And they're launching to the ISS tomorrow, the most expensive object ever built by humanity. They have the world's trust. They have the world's best engineers. And they have some intense ambition and lots of…

"They want to send people to Mars" I was actually thinking the other day about the people alive today who might be household names in 500 years - if Elon Musk achieves his goals for reaching Mars then his is probably the only name on that list.

The Christopher Columbus for the next millennium.

Re: SpaceX headed to the ISS tomorrow

#80

Post by tg3 »

breidh wrote: post #28
arethuza wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"They want to send people to Mars" I was actually thinking the other day about the people alive today who might be household names in 500 years - if Elon Musk achieves his goals for reaching Mars then his is probably the only name on that list.

I don't think he'll need to get to Mars to be on that list. Lastingly transforming the economics, reusability, and safety of rocket and vehicle technology in his short lifetime will be enough. Musk and Spacex are already on track to benefit humanity 500 years from now and beyond.

And that's just one of his companies. Let's not forget PayPal and Tesla, which, while not as important to the future of humanity, both represent successful leaps forward in technology and economics.
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