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Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

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Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#81

Post by rorrr »

redthrowaway wrote: post #39
rorrr wrote: post #7

I really don't get why FB is valued that much. If you look at their revenues, net income, quarter-to-quarter growth, the stock should be at $5.50. Seriously, look at GOOG, compare it to FB. You must be insane to buy FB.

For a long time, Google had similar monetization challenges. It was only after Adsense that they really started making money. I imagine FB's pricing reflects the expectation that they'll find a way to make serious cash, although I'm not overly optimistic on that front.

Yeah, but FB is not making good money even after they started posting ads.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#82

Post by rorrr »

dsil wrote: post #20
rorrr wrote: post #7

I really don't get why FB is valued that much. If you look at their revenues, net income, quarter-to-quarter growth, the stock should be at $5.50. Seriously, look at GOOG, compare it to FB. You must be insane to buy FB.

Buying stock is generally about what you think will happen in the future, not what has happened in the past.

That's a meaningless statement. What you "think will happen in the future" is based on what you know about the company. And what we know now, doesn't look so good.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#83

Post by rorrr »

wanderful wrote: post #19
rorrr wrote: post #7

I really don't get why FB is valued that much. If you look at their revenues, net income, quarter-to-quarter growth, the stock should be at $5.50. Seriously, look at GOOG, compare it to FB. You must be insane to buy FB.

The question for many investors isn't in the current figures so much as what are the future figures likely to be and how that compares to the current figures.

True, but if the company is not really growing, how can you expect the future figures to go up?

FB is really stuck, they have no fucking idea what to do with all the users. FB ads don't work.

The only way FB will survive is if they start selling shit directly on their pages, highly targeted, Amazon-level goods and prices.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#84

Post by encoderer »

joering2 wrote: post #46
dkulchenko wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pardon my ignorance, but what do the quoted numbers mean?

It means that underwriters were putting lots of stocks to buy at the exact $38 level so that this will scare people away from selling ( oh wow such a huge position someone wants to buy [$38 x 9999900 shares == $379,996,200], there is no chance someone will buy that much of a shares [and therefore stock will plunge deeper], so I better stick to my own shares and not sell ). They build rather fake barricade. edit: depe…

You're right on what it means, but not why.

This is the reason IPOs work the way they do, with investment banks underwriting it. They get a large profit (potentially huge profit) in exchange for providing the services of a market-maker in the stock at $38/share.

There was nothing nefarious, just market making.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#85

Post by encoderer »

Klinky wrote: post #62
tazzy531 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's going to be interesting is how long they can hold this support. Banks can't take on too much risk on their books.. especially in the post Dodd-Franks world.

Didn't JPMorgan Chase just lose $3 billion? Seems like they're still a little too good at taking on risk.

And it's important to remember that $3bn is a fraction of one quarters profit at JPMorgan Chase.

A lot of people could thusly call that perfectly acceptable risk.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#86

Post by encoderer »

sks wrote: post #12
earl wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

here's the pricing chart for today [1]. What makes you think it was supported -- the flat line beginning at 334 pm? [1] http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FB+Interactive#symbol=fb;... ;

Well the price did come very close to $38 several times (twice before 12:00 and then during the flat part at 3:34 that you mentioned) but the price never crossed below $38. This does show a lot of resistance/support at $38

Yes, of course, because the underwriters in an IPO act as market-makers at the IPO share price. That's their function in exchange for making an obscene profit taking a company public.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#87

Post by shangrila »

cookiecaper wrote: post #68
mratzloff wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> On the other, the shape of the daily curve looks like it was supported at that level artificially. Facebook's too big to fail!

The prospect of that reality is frightening. Facebook is so large now that if it went away the amount of civil discontent would be a point of concern for politicians (primarily if Facebook's disappearance gets pinned on them).

The flipside of that of course is that they can pass whatever draconian regulations they want in regards to the internet, so long as Facebook gets a free pass and is allowed to keep chugging along. Surprised they didn't do that already for things like SOPA.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#88

Post by davvid »

Klinky wrote: post #62
tazzy531 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's going to be interesting is how long they can hold this support. Banks can't take on too much risk on their books.. especially in the post Dodd-Franks world.

Didn't JPMorgan Chase just lose $3 billion? Seems like they're still a little too good at taking on risk.

The $3B is only what's been reported. Tip of the iceberg.

FB is being propped up to lure in "retail" investors. Retail investors == "muppets" == dumb money. If FB stock is so great then Goldman would be holding onto it themselves. Are they doing that? No. They are selling. $38 is their exit point. Anyone who's buying in will be left holding the bag. That is the whole point.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#89

Post by encoderer »

gamble wrote: post #74

Traditionally, the point of an IPO was that it let the company raise more money than private investors could provide, so that the company could fund further growth. It's hard for me to see what opportunities this IPO opens for Facebook. They were already extremely well-funded. They already saturate their niche. It seems like the most likely consequence is that it will lead to early employees cashing out and moving on…

But the reason they had so many billions cash on hand was the huge round they rased last year via Goldman Sachs.

Investors certainly participated in that with the expectation that they could exit with profit in the near future.

In other words, they took a payday advance (with very generous terms to the borrower). You still need the payday.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#90

Post by Klinky »

encoderer wrote: post #85
Klinky wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't JPMorgan Chase just lose $3 billion? Seems like they're still a little too good at taking on risk.

And it's important to remember that $3bn is a fraction of one quarters profit at JPMorgan Chase. A lot of people could thusly call that perfectly acceptable risk.

One half of quarterly profits is a pretty big fraction.

Exec resignations & the CEO apologizing doesn't sound like a lot of people are very accepting of the risks taken.

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