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Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

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Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#71
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Layperson question: what does it matter? What impact does Facebook's valuation have on its day-to-day business, now that they have the IPO cash in hand?

The shareholders control the board, and the board controls management. Thus, unhappy shareholders will mean new management. In FB's case however, Zuck still controls (through proxy) the majority of votes; Zuck cannot be ousted. There are other problems with a non-performing stock too; employee morale may be (and is increasingly?) tightly related to the share options they own. If management is not performing well and…

Do Facebook employees get options, or do they get actual stock?

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#72
post #36

(EDIT: Earlier this title read "barely above it's IPO price". It definitely used this word, "barely". My comment is now moot. I'm leaving it due to the replies.) what is with this title? It sounds like it's saying sullenly, "a year later, Facebook is barely above its IPO price". OF COURSE IT'S TRADING AROUND ITS IPO PRICE, GIVEN THAT IT'S JUST IPO'D. I mean, of ALL the times a company could be trading at its IPO pric…

On a day where a company has IPOed, for it to be close to the IPO price on the close is a comparative failure. When you float a company your underwriters will generally float at a price which is slightly under what's perceived to be the true value - this is mostly to ensure that the shares get sold (i.e. the VC firms and investors when the company was private get to make their profit from selling their shares), and b…

It's a failure if you're in the business of buying IPO stock.

For Facebook itself, it's a glorious success: they have successfully raised alllll the moneys. Most IPOs try to "pop" a little as an incentive to get the big underwriters to take multimillion/billion dollar positions (which they would be totally unable to liquidate at the 'popped' price, because they'd run out of buyers willing to pay decent money). But Facebook had people tripping all over themselves to get the stock. Why give away shares for anything less than they had to? Preserving existing shareholders' values is the name of the game, not giving away valuable shares to a bunch of outsiders.

An incredibly successful IPO.... for Facebook's existing shareholders. Possibly the best IPO ever.

(Disclosure: I bought 50 shares as part of the IPO, because I had that kind of money sitting around and was getting bored with medium-term corporate bond funds.)

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#73
post #59
post #55

I'm glad about this. If we had trading that quickly doubled or tripled the market cap then that may well be evidence of unsustainably high valuations (I hesitate to use the word "bubble" [1] as it's largely a baseless pejorative at this point). That being said, some say this is evidence of FB being fairly priced. I disagree on two points: 1. Pre-IPO investors expect an immediate return. Investment banks ("IBs") under…

Layperson question: what does it matter? What impact does Facebook's valuation have on its day-to-day business, now that they have the IPO cash in hand?

Bear in mind that they don't have all that cash. Some early investors and founders are taking some of that money off the table (which is fine). According to [1] over half the money is going to existing stockholders rather than the company.

That being said, Facebook doesn't actually need the cash for anything (apparent). It is profitable and can hire and build data centers.

For a company in Facebook's position, any large cash pile is likely to be used for acquisitions more than anything else.

But the share price still matters. It affects the company's ability to attract and retain talent.

In the 90s Microsoft did amazingly well from this. IIRC at the time an employee's stock options were price at the lowest closing price in the month after they joined. This meant that someone who joined in around 1990 could buy MSFT at less than $1 when it was trading at 50-100 times.

It is very hard for someone to leave in that kind of position.

AFAIK option vesting and pricing has changed somewhat since then (typically with the whole 4 year vest and 1 year cliff) such that early employees are probably fully-vested. Later share parcels won't be anywhere nearly as attractive. So those employees will stay basically as long as it's fun because it's not about the money anymore.

Then again, good luck motivating such people to do shitty jobs.

Facebook is now (IMHO) beyond the point where stock can be considered a lottery ticket anymore. Even it becomes a trillion dollar company that's still only 10x. At this point, a potential employee can simply multiply his or her RSU (restricted stock unit) allotment by the current price divide it by the vesting period and add that to base compensation plus target bonus to work out total comp.

Zuck still holds 57% of the voting power in Facebook so really the stockmarket doesn't matter much at all to Facebook. It's still Zuck's company and he can (within reason) do what he likes with it. That seems to be a tech company norm and probably a good thing based on the short-term narrowsighted thinking that seems to dominate Wall Street (just look at Yahoo).

TL:DR effect on FB = not a lot.

[1]: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230344840457740...

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#74
Traditionally, the point of an IPO was that it let the company raise more money than private investors could provide, so that the company could fund further growth. It's hard for me to see what opportunities this IPO opens for Facebook. They were already extremely well-funded. They already saturate their niche. It seems like the most likely consequence is that it will lead to early employees cashing out and moving on, while the only possible use for the billions raised are the kind of acquisitions that history shows rarely result in a net gain for the acquirer.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#75
post #59
post #55

I'm glad about this. If we had trading that quickly doubled or tripled the market cap then that may well be evidence of unsustainably high valuations (I hesitate to use the word "bubble" [1] as it's largely a baseless pejorative at this point). That being said, some say this is evidence of FB being fairly priced. I disagree on two points: 1. Pre-IPO investors expect an immediate return. Investment banks ("IBs") under…

Layperson question: what does it matter? What impact does Facebook's valuation have on its day-to-day business, now that they have the IPO cash in hand?

The valuation will be used to continue to reward employees, and in fact will be used a lot more frequently now that there is liquidity and the IPO is out of the way.

With high level share liquidity, insiders will find it easier to cash out and walk away from Facebook. Particularly those that have been there for a long time. The market has set a 'real' price on the shares, whereas the Second Market pre-IPO trading was a lot less liquid, and made it difficult to guess just what FB's real value was. Now employees know what their shares are really worth on a durable time frame.

The stock market is in a down swing, so there was little chance FB was going to see a healthy pop today. If you're building a long term business, all of the talk about it being up or down or popping today is literally irrelevant.

Groupon is specifically a great example of the investor con-game that goes on. They IPO'd a near historically small float (for a large company) to get as big a pop out of the stock as possible to punch the valuation high. Smoke and mirrors, and the stock proceeded to collapse 62% accordingly. It's a good sign that Facebook didn't pull any of that shit, and by all indications had a very sane and orderly IPO process.

If you're interested in the stock, give it time, you'll be able to get it under $30 / share in the next year.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#76
post #55

I'm glad about this. If we had trading that quickly doubled or tripled the market cap then that may well be evidence of unsustainably high valuations (I hesitate to use the word "bubble" [1] as it's largely a baseless pejorative at this point). That being said, some say this is evidence of FB being fairly priced. I disagree on two points: 1. Pre-IPO investors expect an immediate return. Investment banks ("IBs") under…

"4. Current investors will have a lock-out period from selling. This may be 6 or 12 months. Whatever the case, if supply meets demand now then extra supply suggests a price drop may be coming when that lock-out period ends."

So if you are a speculator, unlike with Groupon and their miniscule float, you can take a short position. I don't recommend it, there is the old joke about how long the market and stay irrational, but if you've got a couple hundred thousand you don't mind losing you can now at least make the bet.

One of my favorite pastimes is a sort of Fantasy Hedge Fund game where I manage a $10M hedge fund and try to out perform the S&P 500. This kind of play fits right into that.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#77
post #74

Traditionally, the point of an IPO was that it let the company raise more money than private investors could provide, so that the company could fund further growth. It's hard for me to see what opportunities this IPO opens for Facebook. They were already extremely well-funded. They already saturate their niche. It seems like the most likely consequence is that it will lead to early employees cashing out and moving on…

With $12 billion or whatever they're keeping out of the $16 billion, plus the $4 billion on hand, I guess they could try to eat Twitter if they get really bored. But you're right, the extra $12 billion doesn't do much for them, other than perhaps provide defense capital for patent problems (it'd take a helluva patent problem to start eating multiple billions though).

Wall St. will now expect an annual profit, so even using the cash to grow the company massively with new costs (employees, buildings, etc.) will be frowned upon. They'll obviously still be expected to operate moderately within their cash flow means.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#78
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying stock is generally about what you think will happen in the future, not what has happened in the past.

No, sir. Speculating is about what you think will happen. Buying stocks in a business is about buying into something that has shown to be profitable, and stable. Enough to exchange your hard-earned money for it. Read "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham to gain a better picture of what investing really is.

I agree about the value of Ben Graham, however, there's no set definition for what investing is really all about.

If you want to argue what the most rational approach to investing is, sure, that's fine.

However, there are a lot of ways to skin the cat these days. You can high frequency trade; you can slap puts on stocks if you have a skill as a short; you can use calculated hedges and skim points; you can carry trades through currency variations; you can buy and flip based on market panic (or short temporarily based on irrational euphoria), with no intention for long term holdings or long term profit concerns.

I think more people (less skilled professionals) can invest in the Ben Graham model, over a long period of time, than any of the other approaches. But, a select few have turned out to be extraordinary at the other approaches, and have made great fortunes that way as well.

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#79
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Buying stock is generally about what you think will happen in the future, not what has happened in the past.

No, sir. Speculating is about what you think will happen. Buying stocks in a business is about buying into something that has shown to be profitable, and stable. Enough to exchange your hard-earned money for it. Read "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham to gain a better picture of what investing really is.

One of the most common and simplistic valuation methods is using the Expected Value of the Net Present Value of Future Earnings. Past information can be an indicator, but is in a sense "Sunk."

Re: Facebook closes at $38.23 first day NASDAQ trading, above IPO price $38.00

#80
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a day where a company has IPOed, for it to be close to the IPO price on the close is a comparative failure. When you float a company your underwriters will generally float at a price which is slightly under what's perceived to be the true value - this is mostly to ensure that the shares get sold (i.e. the VC firms and investors when the company was private get to make their profit from selling their shares), and b…

It's a failure if you're in the business of buying IPO stock. For Facebook itself, it's a glorious success: they have successfully raised alllll the moneys. Most IPOs try to "pop" a little as an incentive to get the big underwriters to take multimillion/billion dollar positions (which they would be totally unable to liquidate at the 'popped' price, because they'd run out of buyers willing to pay decent money). But Fa…

Oh for sure, good for Facebook as well. Post-IPO Facebook doesn't really care so much what their valuation is - they've got the cash, they've got a profitable business.
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