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'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

theatlantic.com

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Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#41

Post by earl »

JPKab wrote: post #26
earl wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. Obviously cleanly measuring advertising returns from fb is hard, but it's still being done. Second, fb can put up the first credible alternative to adsense since they collect browsing info from their fb login and other widgets. In fact, they can do better than adsense: fb can mix in very accurate demographics alongside the page context.…

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanholiday/2012/05/17/why-i-los... Advertising isn't worthless, but advertisers are very naive. You talk about companies spending money because they are stupid. I SUSPECT, but only Facebook has the data to KNOW, that there is a high turnover in companies advertising on Facebook. New companies coming in every day, but also many who realize they aren't getting a return on investment and lea…

You realize that brand advertising isn't measured via clickthrough, right? Most people on the net don't click -- see the infamous natural born clickers study. Yet nonetheless, brand advertising via display can be demonstrated to be very effective on an roas basis via A/B testing by geo.

Also -- ctr doesn't matter as long as your cpc compares. So 1/100 the ctr is fine w/ 1/100 the price, etc.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#42

Post by earl »

qohen wrote: post #31
earl wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. Obviously cleanly measuring advertising returns from fb is hard, but it's still being done. Second, fb can put up the first credible alternative to adsense since they collect browsing info from their fb login and other widgets. In fact, they can do better than adsense: fb can mix in very accurate demographics alongside the page context.…

> One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. What if there were enough naive newbies to keep things afloat even in the face of advertisers who became disillusioned? http://www.jperla.com/blog/post/facebook-is-a-ponzi-scheme (via: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ryanholiday/2012/05/17/why-i-los... )

That is possible but extremely unlikely. Companies who spend interesting amounts of money on advertising don't just hand you $100k or something. Instead, they hand you $10k for a month or a quarter and tell you to demonstrate what you can do. You only get more as long as you can show something going up and to the right. So you can certainly get to million dollar accounts but it's going to take at least a year of demonstrating performance and going out and demanding quarterly increases in spend.

Now, to your claim: could fb get $2B in ad spend w/o demonstrating that performance? Sure. It's damn unlikely though because the companies that will eventually spend $1m/year with you don't start there. If your theory is there is super high churn, then 2e9/(10k) = 200k different advertisers spending $10k for a quarter then churning. That seems dubious. Now obviously they make some money from tax, etc, but just look at the rough order of magnitude of new suckers you would have to find every year and estimate whether it's likely.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#43

Post by akg »

ericd wrote: post #32
akg wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in…

Many people spend 10% of their waking lives in cars, and more of it earning money to afford their cars. Automatic driving with the associated ease of fractional car ownership is potentially huge. Keep in mind that not everyone works at a desk job that can almost as easily be done remotely. Social networks really, really aren't nearly as impactful in the the productive sense. They've mostly made it easier to chat with…

I am not sure how things like this will change our lives to be honest, I think it is too early to say which will have a bigger impact.

To your latter point, I can understand that most people use social networks to merely chat and browse drunken photos of friends, but that is like saying that all the invention of the telephone did was make it easier to share mindless banter with your friends. There are fringe benefits that arise from these kinds of technologies that could be really impactful. Twitter's use during the Arab Spring comes to mind as the most recent example of this.

I admit that Facebook doesn't provide any great "technological"/scientific achievement, but it does have a strong network effect supporting it; and that is something that can be impactful in a very productive sense.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#44

Post by 38f0ia »

Prof. Blank's blog entries aimed at selling his "Startup Manual" are creepy. Framed as stories of walking through the woods with former students it just stinks of cheap, manipulative internet marketing. Is this what he is teaching kids? Then at the end a link to his book on Amazon. Just terrible.

Thanks for lowering the bar, Mr. Blank.

"Where the money is." Indeed. Money that could be invested in more worthwhile research. He's right. Thank God for NIH, NSF and the SBA, because now we have educators giving in to the lure of low brow internet marketing. Sad.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#45

Post by muhfuhkuh »

tsotha wrote: post #19
InclinedPlane wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revo…

I think you're vastly overstating the disruption potential of the iPad. Most people who use tablet computers use them as internet-connected televisions to stream videos. A TV that can play Angry Birds isn't a disruptive technology. Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer, and a computer you consider dirt cheap is impossibly far out of reach for people who're wondering where their next meal is comin…

Okay, what about a TV that can play Angry Birds, take a picture and send it via SMS or email, and let's you surf, chat, share your life, and meet new people.

"Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer"

Wow, so short-sighted I don't even know where to begin. You must not know how deeply mobile technology has penetrated on earth. The fact that phones are now becoming small computers seems to completely escape you.

"And even if they can afford the hardware, who do you suppose is going to pay for the wireless infrastructure, and why?"

3rd world countries have wireless coverage. There are villages in Asia and Africa where a kid comes through on a bike (or horse!) with a car battery to charge people's phones in the slums for around a US penny or thereabouts.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#46

Post by yannickt »

jonny_eh wrote: post #33

It's easy to downplay the impact of Facebook compared to the kind of stuff Elon Musk is doing, but it was only last year that we saw dictators being overthrown with the help of social networks like Facebook. That's pretty cool too, no?

I think you are vastly overestimating the impact Facebook had on the so-called Arab spring. Internet penetration in that part of the world is not high enough for social media to trigger an uprising at that scale. Also, just because a dictator is overthrown doesn't mean things automatically change for the better. See Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and much of subsaharan Africa.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#47

Post by kd0amg »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #30
asto wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will it disrupt exactly? Example? As far as I can tell, it is merely a device that affords convenience.

How is a device that afford convenience not disruptive? I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience…

There's a difference between "makes this already-very-feasible thing a bit more convenient" and "makes this thing feasible."

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#48

Post by untog »

InclinedPlane wrote: post #30
asto wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will it disrupt exactly? Example? As far as I can tell, it is merely a device that affords convenience.

How is a device that afford convenience not disruptive? I can walk from Seattle to Portland if I desired, the only advantage a car offers is convenience. Yet through that dramatic increase in convenience the car has proven to be one of the most disruptive inventions in history. Similarly, one can communicate, do graphic design, mix audio, produce movies, write letters and novels without a computer but the convenience…

Those comparisons aren't even nearly on the same scale. A car doesn't just offer convenience, it offers trips that were previously impossible. It is not possible to walk from Seattle to Portland in any kind of meaningful timeframe.

An iPad, on the other hand, makes a few tasks marginally quicker, but is incapable of other tasks. It is marginally more portable. Yes, there are other benefits (as you state) but they are nothing compared to the amount of time that would be generated by self-driving cars. The average US citizen spends 7% of their life driving:

http://www.justanswer.com/general/0oy3c-time-does-person-spe...

Imagine the difference that could make. We could all play on our iPads more.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#49

Post by ajross »

muhfuhkuh wrote: post #45
tsotha wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're vastly overstating the disruption potential of the iPad. Most people who use tablet computers use them as internet-connected televisions to stream videos. A TV that can play Angry Birds isn't a disruptive technology. Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer, and a computer you consider dirt cheap is impossibly far out of reach for people who're wondering where their next meal is comin…

Okay, what about a TV that can play Angry Birds, take a picture and send it via SMS or email, and let's you surf, chat, share your life, and meet new people. "Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer" Wow, so short-sighted I don't even know where to begin. You must not know how deeply mobile technology has penetrated on earth. The fact that phones are now becoming small computers seems to completely…

I could play games, take pictures, send them to friends, surf the web, chat, "share my life" and meet new people with computers fifteen years ago. The iPad has made that process easier and better, and to some extent cheaper. And it's a great product.

But that's not "disruption", it's just plain old improvement.

Re: 'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

#50

Post by TechNewb »

recursive wrote: post #8
Bud wrote: post #5

Who cares what this guy thinks? He doesn't count either the iPhone or iPad among the most important innovations of the last 5 years, but two of his 4 choices are about cars, and another is Google Goggles. He also surmises that Silicon Valley is dead because of a few observations about Facebook, while ignoring that Apple has become the largest company in the history of the known universe.

He's absolutely correct. Automated cars will have a much bigger effect than iPads. So much time is wasted driving.

How about living in, or building, cities that have good enough public infastructure that cars aren't needed. That would have an even larger effect.
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