'The Golden Age of Silicon Valley Is Over, and We're Dancing on its Grave'

This is just blatantly wrong. Yes automated cars will be a huge deal, but discounting the iPad is just prejudice pretending to be insight. The mobile OS experience and the tablet PC are very much the next phase of evolution of the computer. Right now the iPad is trailblazing the way as a very high markup luxury good but even so it's proving to be enormously disruptive. When the second shoe drops on the tablet PC revolution the entire industry and indeed the entire world will be shaken up. In a few decades the market for computing devices and software will be vastly larger than it is today. People in Sudan will have dirt cheap solar powered tablet PCs. The degree of disruption on the horizon due to these devices cannot be overstated.

Edit: how are tablet PCs disruptive? In several ways:

First, they have fewer components than any other form-factor complete computer and are cheaper to produce. Cheaper computers means more people that can buy computers which exponentially increases the number of people who buy computers when you consider the developing world. This is a feedback loop, technologically it's likely to be possible to make a profit on tablet pcs in the near future in a price range of tens of dollars per device.

Second, they are more user friendly for average users and their form factor offers advantages for normal users (portability, etc.) This makes them desirable as replacements for laptops and desktops for many people, as witnessed by the massive number of tablet pcs that have already been bought.

Third, they are excellent gaming platforms and will almost certainly compete on equal if not superior footing with other handheld gaming devices (which have sold hundreds of millions of devices already, not including software sales) and even traditional consoles and pcs. That industry is already larger than the film industry and growing rapidly, the growing market share of tablet gaming is nothing to scoff at.

Fourth, tablets don't require the same level of infrastructure as other computers. They have long battery life and low power usage, they don't necessarily need a hardline internet connection or a constant source of electricity. Someone in 2030 living in a 3rd world country could pay 1/100th their annual income for a tablet pc which has an e-ink display and can recharge via solar power. They could use it as an ebook reader most of the time and use it for other purposes such as communication and whatnot when they visit a city or someplace with free wifi or they could communicate point to point with folks with similar devices (using them as phones or relays, for example). That technology will change what it means to live in the 3rd world.

Fifth, the way that apps work on tablets is a natural match for line of business apps and corporate IT deployment and management. Future generations of tablets will make huge inroads in office computing, which is a huge business.

Yes, today they are sometimes toys, but there is a lot of money in toys, and such devices are far less toys than the original PCs were.

Try and overstate it as an exercise for yourself.

If time is wasted driving, is building more efficient cars really the solution? I would venture that technology that makes the world a lot smaller and puts information at your fingertips, e.g., tablets, phones, social networks, etc. will be a much bigger disrupter in the way we live our current lives. Maybe in the future we won't have to drive as much since we can just get things done without having to waste time in cars.

One, you presume that advertisers are incredibly naive and don't measure returns. Obviously cleanly measuring advertising returns from fb is hard, but it's still being done.

Second, fb can put up the first credible alternative to adsense since they collect browsing info from their fb login and other widgets. In fact, they can do better than adsense: fb can mix in very accurate demographics alongside the page context. Adsense makes google nearly $10B/year and I'd bet fb could eat half of that. And many pubs that lean heavily on adsense are desperate for a competitor. So I'd say fb is -- at bare minimum -- a $5B/year company. Plus another billion or two from taxing every bit of money that flows through social gaming. Plus it seems like zynga will be able to do poker for money now. Plus I don't believe all the ads on fb proper are worthless, so roll that into the mix.

Finally, from your comments below, you seem to think advertising in general is worthless. If you think companies (US only) spend $400B/year because they're stupid, then I'm too dumbfounded to formulate a response.

I think you're vastly overstating the disruption potential of the iPad. Most people who use tablet computers use them as internet-connected televisions to stream videos. A TV that can play Angry Birds isn't a disruptive technology.

Most people in the world don't have any use for a computer, and a computer you consider dirt cheap is impossibly far out of reach for people who're wondering where their next meal is coming from. And even if they can afford the hardware, who do you suppose is going to pay for the wireless infrastructure, and why?