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Re: NASDAQ:FB

#141

Post by jwilliams »

Aqua_Geek wrote: post #135
alecco wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very serious warning sign, FB IPO didn't take off as some people expected. This is going to be a very important day to the valley. http://www.businessinsider.com/zynga-shares-crushed-and-halt...

Is it a bad sign? Doesn't it mean that shares were priced appropriately and FB didn't leave much on the table?

It's a fine line.

Markets care a lot about sentiment. A nice 10-15% pop on the first day leaves everyone feeling pretty good - and a nice halo around the company.

If the price levels off.. Well people will be inclined to be more critical. They'll be wanting FB to start moving the stock north sooner.

I was a bit curious about the pricing. As you say, they want the maximum investment value, but there is some sense in buying the management team some time. A billion less may have saved them a lot of headaches dealing with market criticism, given them time to get some wins...

Anyway. It's a brave new world when you suddenly have to start answering to shareholders.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#142

Post by fear91 »

joezydeco wrote: post #136
fear91 wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are we rooting for the fall of Google, too?

I respect Google. The search engine they built was made out of the hard work of their own employees. They didn't build an empty bucket and wait for everyone else to do the hard work and fill it up. Sure, Facebook is full of clever hacks and nice features but the gas in that engine is the data happily supplied by their users, for the low low cost of free.

Doesn't change the fact that both companies show little regard for their users privacy.

I haven't heard about facebook sniffing wi-fi packets though.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#143

Post by j2labs »

The reason for FB's drop seems simple. The options have been traded on secondmarket for a long time already, meaning institutional investors have already been playing the invest-in-facebook game for a long time.

The only folks left are the normal folks and I don't believe they have the money to drive the price up significantly.

In short: this is a liquidity event for Facebook ownership and nothing else.

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#144

Post by JonnieCache » 

    $> ping us.etrade.com
    PING us.etrade.com (12.153.224.21): 56 data bytes
    Request timeout for icmp_seq 0
    36 bytes from etrade-fina.edge4.atlanta2.level3.net (4.30.52.206): Communication prohibited by filter
    Vr HL TOS  Len   ID Flg  off TTL Pro  cks      Src      Dst
     4  5  00 5400 115d   0 0000  31  01 9939 10.0.232.100  12.153.224.21 
    
    Request timeout for icmp_seq 1
    Request timeout for icmp_seq 2
    Request timeout for icmp_seq 3
    Request timeout for icmp_seq 4
    ^C
    --- us.etrade.com ping statistics ---
    6 packets transmitted, 0 packets received, 100.0% packet loss
Now that's demand.

(etrade is an online brokerage service for independent traders, and their network is very unhappy right now.)

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#145

Post by robomartin »

alecco wrote: post #116
mmaunder wrote: post #113

Trading in Zynga halted due to 13% drop and a circuit breaker tripped.

This is a very serious warning sign, FB IPO didn't take off as some people expected. This is going to be a very important day to the valley. http://www.businessinsider.com/zynga-shares-crushed-and-halt...

If you mean that the have succeeded in issuing a stock at 100x earnings, you are absolutely right. This is not, by any measure, a failure for those who funded FB prior to the IPO. In fact, they are getting paid 100x earnings for the company they own!

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#146

Post by emiranda »

clueless wrote: post #137
emiranda wrote: post #126

So... that percentage next to the stock price represents the change in value since it opened? Mine currently says +0.99 (2.61%) but the stock opened at $42 and the current price is $39. I would think the number should be a negative value/percentage.

It's based on the $38 pricing, not the opening.

Why is that?

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#147

Post by corford »

pilom wrote: post #134
corford wrote: post #66

Although I'm generally a market bear and have been saying we're in a bubble for months, even I'm having a hard time seeing how there isn't going to be an almighty pop today given the sheer amount of irrational exuberance over this. My bet is FB closes somewhere between $55 and $65. Anyone else fancy making a prediction? [ edit: stuck an upper limit on my prediction to make it more interesting :) ]

My bet is it closes somewhere between $35 and $45. The owners pushed back against the bankers at every turn to push for a higher price. If they don't price at the start of the day effectively, the original shareholders lose money to the bankers who set up the IPO like what happened to LinkedIn.

That's a good point I hadn't considered. As it looks at the moment, I'm glad I stuck to arm chair punditory (if that's even a word!) and didn't buy any shares...

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#148

Post by marshray »

fear91 wrote: post #112
marshray wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google seems to have a pretty good track record of being a well run, profitable company. In my opinion anyway, FB still seems to be in the "do something big, figure out how to profit from it later" stage. That's all well and good, but I don't know that it's $130+ per active user good. How many ad banners are these people going to click? To put this in perspective, the initial valuation of $104B is over 2/3 the entire…

I believe that Facebook could make something like AdSense. They have vast quantities of info about people and their interests. Additionally, thanks to the huge presence of facebook tracking codes (Likes) on websites, they can track which websites you visit - additionally increasing targeting efficiency. It would be fun seeing google decreasing their margins on AdSense (38% of webmasters profit?) vs AdvFace(or somethi…

So right now FB (at $110B) is market valued at about 1/2 of Google (at $201B).

Let's say FB builds or buys a search engine, a popular web browser, a smartphone platform equivalent to Android, a Gigabit fiber-to-the-home project, and an AdvFace that takes 50% of that market away from Google.

If all that were to happen, then it might make sense for FB's valuation to be comparable to Google's. G's might even shrink a little bit to help.

But G has that all functioning now, whereas FB's seems merely hypothetical. Could we not equivalently reason that FB could start a P2P auction market to rival Ebay? A distribution channel to rival Amazon?

Re: NASDAQ:FB

#149

Post by mynameishere »

_delirium wrote: post #119
alexchamberlain wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's falling fast... $40 atm. Edit: $40 seems to be a barrier (not a surprise). It will take a little while for all the limit orders to be satisfied there.

Then back down to $38 for a bit, then back up to $40 for a bit. Oddly step-like price graph, with steps on the even numbers. I guess I have no idea how trading in this kind of opening works to hazard a guess.

JP Morgan or whoever was buying hard at 40, and they did the same at 38. The behavior is very clear, and if it gets to 38 again I might gamble on it...

...not that we need another zerohedge link, but this makes it obvious

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/facebook-ardennes-spot-syndica...

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