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7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

earthquake.usgs.gov

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Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#111

Post by shiroiushi »

PaulHoule wrote: post #52
shiroiushi wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's generally very bad, but it also depends on the shoreline. If your city is on the coast at sea level with no real barrier, it's devastating. If there's a big cliff and everything is at higher elevation, you can ignore it. Unfortunately, people tend to build settlements at sea level.

Consider for instance this place https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Category:Diablo_Canyon_Po... which is on top of a high bluff thus much more secure than the Fukushima NPP.

Unfortunately, that power plant is very close to two fault lines, and they didn't even know when they built it, so it's questionable how well it'll withstand an earthquake.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#112

Post by lamontcg »

thijson wrote: post #59
lamontcg wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nisqually quake in Seattle was a 6.8 but it was 57km (35 miles) deep. It was also on the other side of Tacoma sort of in between Tacoma and Olympia. The depth of that quake made it a lot less severe than it could have been, only killed one person, but estimated it cost $1b to $4b in damages.

I remember how it felt, I thought I was sick, because I felt this rocking motion. I thought it was just me, then I stood up and saw a plant shaking, so I knew it was everything else that was shaking too. The amplitude slowly increased, reached a maximum, then decreased over the course of what seemed like a minute. It was a quite slow frequency, possibly due to the depth. This was from Portland.

I was on the 8th floor of a brick building in Seattle. If it had been a shallow quake I would be dead. There was a whole lotta motion. Can't remember what it damaged, though, other than some glass bottles on top of the refrigerator that fell off and shattered everywhere in the kitchen.

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#114

Post by jcranmer »

spxneo wrote: post #99

this guy is right again at predicting these earth quakes: https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148

Looking at his feed, his big prediction was for a M7 earthquake around 3/30, so his prediction is actually 3 days off.

Before that, he was looking at a M8 earthquake around 3/13.

And before that, strong tremors around the end of 10/23/2023, seeming later updated to more like 10/25/2023 or 10/28/2023.

None of this panned out.

In general, I'm seeing a lot of misses and no real hits.

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#115

Post by spxneo »

jcranmer wrote: post #114
spxneo wrote: post #99

this guy is right again at predicting these earth quakes: https://twitter.com/ssgeos/status/1775146068079960148

Looking at his feed, his big prediction was for a M7 earthquake around 3/30, so his prediction is actually 3 days off. Before that, he was looking at a M8 earthquake around 3/13. And before that, strong tremors around the end of 10/23/2023, seeming later updated to more like 10/25/2023 or 10/28/2023. None of this panned out. In general, I'm seeing a lot of misses and no real hits.

so he's off by a few days? did you go back to his past predictions that also came true last year and the year before? he's better than any predictive processes we had so far

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#116

Post by speed_spread »

supportengineer wrote: post #92
shiroiushi wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's generally very bad, but it also depends on the shoreline. If your city is on the coast at sea level with no real barrier, it's devastating. If there's a big cliff and everything is at higher elevation, you can ignore it. Unfortunately, people tend to build settlements at sea level.

We should set up some stone monuments to delineate the high water mark, for future generations.

The Japanese have those. A lot of the monuments are hidden in the forest in the hills above the coastal villages...

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#117

Post by hojinkoh »

thangngoc89 wrote: post #55
voisin wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a stream of the big dampening device in Taipei 101? I cannot find it via usual searches but wonder if it is available in another language search.

It happened too early 8:03 AM. Probably no visitor or even staff in Taipei 101. Last time videos are all from visitor.

I can't imagine how terrifying it will be if I was on Taipei 101 during this quake...

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#118

Post by LilBytes »

komali2 wrote: post #89
thangngoc89 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m also in Taipei. It’s the worst one ever I’ve felt in my life. Staying on the 7th floor with noway to escape in time is probably the worst feeling

If it's any consolation, there's not really time to escape a collapsing building from any level, since the bottom floors usually are crushed first and near instantaneously. If you look at pictures from partially collapsed buildings in Hualian you can see that sometimes it's just the bottom floor that's destroyed and the remaining floors are fine for sometimes days or even until the building is manually taken down. Th…

I appreciate the context you're providing, but "Hey you'd be dead regardless of where you are in the building at the time if it collapses" isn't as reassuring as you'd think.

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#119

Post by jcranmer »

spxneo wrote: post #115
jcranmer wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at his feed, his big prediction was for a M7 earthquake around 3/30, so his prediction is actually 3 days off. Before that, he was looking at a M8 earthquake around 3/13. And before that, strong tremors around the end of 10/23/2023, seeming later updated to more like 10/25/2023 or 10/28/2023. None of this panned out. In general, I'm seeing a lot of misses and no real hits.

so he's off by a few days? did you go back to his past predictions that also came true last year and the year before? he's better than any predictive processes we had so far

His prediction is wrong. He buttonholed it to a few specific days, and missed that window.

As for prior predictions, I went back 6 months. None of his predictions panned out.

Although, admittedly, it's a bit difficult for me to figure out what actually constitutes a prediction since most of them tend to be the kind of vague generality that's hard to grade: "The Mars-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction on 22 September can result in a strong shake later on 23 or 24 September."--what's a "strong shake"? "Stronger seismic activity is likely to occur in the coming days"? These are the kinds of predictions that are worded vaguely enough to be dismissed if they don't come true, and can be highlighted as a miracle of prediction if something does happen.

(I haven't even attempted to grade location because I can't even tell what's supposed to be suggested as possible locations. As noted elsewhere, even guessing that a M6+ earthquake is likely in the next few days isn't a difficult guess, because they'll occur more or less weekly: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m6-world.php?...).

Re: 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan, 34km depth

#120

Post by jfrbfbreudh »

LilBytes wrote: post #118
komali2 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's any consolation, there's not really time to escape a collapsing building from any level, since the bottom floors usually are crushed first and near instantaneously. If you look at pictures from partially collapsed buildings in Hualian you can see that sometimes it's just the bottom floor that's destroyed and the remaining floors are fine for sometimes days or even until the building is manually taken down. Th…

I appreciate the context you're providing, but "Hey you'd be dead regardless of where you are in the building at the time if it collapses" isn't as reassuring as you'd think.

Read his comment again
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