Tesla releases Q1 2024 deliveries: disastrous results

I think it'd be a mistake to also underestimate the impact of actual competition showing up with far fewer quirks. Tesla's interiors were already spartan to say the least, and with each interior update the cost cutting gets even more obvious and more compromising (eg, replacing turn signal stalks with buttons on the steering wheel).

Meanwhile you've got things like the Ioniq 5 that have fun styling, way better interiors, and don't really cost that much more. They're still selling a lot fewer in total numbers than Tesla, but Ioniq 5 + EV6 is around 53,000 vehicles in 2023. Given the shape of the EV landscape and EV sales in general, that's probably a lot of lost sales from Tesla specifically. BMW also started showing up, and they're responsible for another 47,000 sales in 2023.

And then at the high end it looks like the Model X + S sold 17,027 total, which yeah. At that price point those vehicles are just one-trick ponies. They go fast, and that's about it. Meanwhile you've got Lucid Air, Porsche Taycan, Audio e-Tron GT, etc... Taycan + eTron GT sales in the US add up to around 10,000. Lucid only had 6,000 delivers in 2023, but it also only offers a Model S competitor atm.

Could it be that Musk's inflammatory language and behaviors are a turn off for potential buyers? They are a turn off for me. I like the vehicles but I'd never get one.

I'm a big fan of Toyota Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime. (High efficiency vehicles, Prius Prime is #1 most green car of ACEEE list, etc. etc.). But people buying Tesla aren't aligned to Toyota.

But a better match to culture is likely Jeep Wrangler 4xe. Incredible offroading performance, reasonable towing capacity, large size / in-your-face advertising to some extent. And electrified, so that your daily commute is efficient and environmentally friendly.

Etc. etc. There's a lot of competition these days. People who buy Toyota / Honda are people who care #1 about reliability and simplicity.

But "Tesla Buyers" are more excited about niche features or feeling like their car can do something other cars cannot do (even if they never actually use that feature). And honestly, vehicles like Jeep Wrangler 4xe are best suited for that mindset.

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Or the new Dodge Charger EV. Now that Stellantis is making their EV push, I think Stellantis has better branding for what the stereotypical Tesla Buyer is going for... without the awfulness associated with Elon.

It's already around 20% of all cars sold globally last year. And prices are still dropping. https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds-largest-ev-battery-ma...

Tesla has the Cybertruck now (is it shipping yet?). People love trucks, so this might work out great for TSLA.

But they don't really have an SUV, which is by far the most popular form factor. The Model Y is closest but it's still a bit car-ish.

Interest rates are up.

Their chairman is going through a very public ...episode.

They'll definitely overcome the headwinds: they still have superfans despite the Musk antics; they have lower leverage than GM/F [0]; there's a lot of regulatory pressure coming down the pipes over the next 10-30 years to phase out ICE engines.

[0]: https://valustox.com/GM

https://valustox.com/F

https://valustox.com/TSLA