Notes on El Salvador • Hacker News Board

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#201

Post by wolverine876 » Sun, Mar 31, 2024, 8:43 PM UTC

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #144

philwelch wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're getting the causation backwards here. Successful countries can maintain democracies, but when a democracy runs into a crisis it can't handle, it usually ceases to be a democracy. You're just not counting the failures because most failed democracies turn into some other form of government.

Hmm, good perspective. But doesn’t this seem to be a no true Scotsman fallacy? If you call all failed democracies not real democracies, you can write them off and only focus on the successful ones. Does a corrupt and poor democracy ceases to be a democracy? I agree that democracy is the best system when implemented well. I’m just pointing out that many countries have struggled to succeed as democracies because they l…

> they lack the proper mindset and culture of maintaining one.

What is your basis for saying why they failed? Maybe they were just overwhelmed by violent dictators (and, like people in the US now, by anti-democratic propaganda).

Democracy works across cultures; the examples are overwhelming from Latin America to the US to S Asia to E Asia (including the most prosperous part of China, and the most prosperous city in China until the CPC took away its democracy), W Europe, E Europe, etc.

The biggest obstacle to democracy is people quitting and undermining it. Our ancestors sacrificed for many generations. What are we doing to promote it, to make it work, to spread freedom to all?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#202

Post by wolverine876 » Sun, Mar 31, 2024, 8:46 PM UTC

ta8903 wrote: post #172

wolverine876 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gang crime seem to be a common weakness of democracies. I've read many histories and that hasn't been a problem. I've lived all my life in democracies and it's never been a problem anywhere that I've lived. I also don't see a correlation. Countries with high levels of corruption, of every form of government, have organized crime problems. Haiti has a very serious gang problem but never much democracy. You might not…

I think you misunderstood the parent post, they didn't say democracies had a common gang crime problem or that there is a correlation between gangs and democracies, they just said democracies don't do very well in dealing with gangs.

Maybe, but do the outcomes differ or not?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#203

Post by philwelch » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 5:57 AM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #199

philwelch wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're getting the causation backwards here. Successful countries can maintain democracies, but when a democracy runs into a crisis it can't handle, it usually ceases to be a democracy. You're just not counting the failures because most failed democracies turn into some other form of government.

> when a democracy runs into a crisis it can't handle, it usually ceases to be a democracy Democracies, it turns out, are more stable in part because they have peaceful transitions of power. When the UK government gets into a crisis it can't handle, it gets voted out and a new government is put in its place; it's a normal process. When dictators get into such situations, there is war and destruction and death; dictat…

> Democracies, it turns out, are more stable in part because they have peaceful transitions of power.

That remains to be seen. The longest lived democracy, if you want to define the term generously enough, might be the UK, which has been roughly the same style of constitutional monarchy since 1688. That’s a little under 350 years. Almost as long lived as the Western Roman Empire. The French monarchy survived for about twice as long. The oligarchic Venetian republic lasted over a millennium, as did the Eastern Roman Empire.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#204

Post by philwelch » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 6:23 AM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #201

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, good perspective. But doesn’t this seem to be a no true Scotsman fallacy? If you call all failed democracies not real democracies, you can write them off and only focus on the successful ones. Does a corrupt and poor democracy ceases to be a democracy? I agree that democracy is the best system when implemented well. I’m just pointing out that many countries have struggled to succeed as democracies because they l…

> they lack the proper mindset and culture of maintaining one. What is your basis for saying why they failed? Maybe they were just overwhelmed by violent dictators (and, like people in the US now, by anti-democratic propaganda). Democracy works across cultures; the examples are overwhelming from Latin America to the US to S Asia to E Asia (including the most prosperous part of China, and the most prosperous city in C…

> Maybe they were just overwhelmed by violent dictators

Yes, that is a form of failure. And it’s not always the result of violence. German democracy failed when the chancellor of a minority government managed to make himself dictator. Russian democracy failed when Putin took over.

Explain to me why, even after 20 years of help, Afghanistan couldn’t establish a democracy. I have an explanation that largely approximates to “they lack the proper mindset and culture of maintaining a democracy”, but if you reject that categorically, go ahead and provide an alternative explanation.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#205

Post by philwelch » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 6:35 AM UTC

bluish29 wrote: post #188

philwelch wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, and if you hadn’t disingenuously quoted me out of context, that would have been obvious. The complete sentence you should have quoted was: “That was actually one of the precipitating causes for the coup, which had a ton of popular support at the time .” By which I meant popular support within Iran . It turns out that Iranians have agency of their own and don’t just do whatever the CIA tells them to do. In fact th…

I quoted the important part of your point. Adding that it did have popular support is a fact that is not established. The CIA and US media propaganda spread false reports about the situation then and still to this day. i.e this article you attached is a pure piece of western propaganda. And even if that was a reason, the reason why US abd CIA involved is much more obvious. It is the oil right getting nationalized. Al…

I’m not arguing about why the US and UK supported the coup. I’m pointing out that Iran was no longer a democracy when the coup happened regardless. I’m also pointing out that if Iran had remained democratic, the shah and the military would have had no reason to carry out the coup whether or not the US wanted it to happen.

> The CIA and US media propaganda spread false reports about the situation then and still to this day. i.e this article you attached is a pure piece of western propaganda.

That claim is completely inconsistent with the CIA and US government repeatedly and publicly claiming responsibility/taking credit for the coup.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#206

Post by blackhawkC17 » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 11:40 AM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #201

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, good perspective. But doesn’t this seem to be a no true Scotsman fallacy? If you call all failed democracies not real democracies, you can write them off and only focus on the successful ones. Does a corrupt and poor democracy ceases to be a democracy? I agree that democracy is the best system when implemented well. I’m just pointing out that many countries have struggled to succeed as democracies because they l…

> they lack the proper mindset and culture of maintaining one. What is your basis for saying why they failed? Maybe they were just overwhelmed by violent dictators (and, like people in the US now, by anti-democratic propaganda). Democracy works across cultures; the examples are overwhelming from Latin America to the US to S Asia to E Asia (including the most prosperous part of China, and the most prosperous city in C…

I know it because I live in one (Nigeria). My country of 200 million+ is not under any threat from a violent dictator. The issue is terrible corruption and a culture that values irrational tribalism over democratic dialogue and cooperation.

There's a reason the Middle East has no successful democracy except Israel, and that's because Israel's culture is largely Western-oriented and fit for democracy.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#207

Post by gigatree » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 7:29 PM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #197

lotsofpulp wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they want it, they will have it. More like if they are lucky to have above subsistence living, and they (specifically the men) have sufficient time and are smart enough to organize and, eventually, over generations, create a culture of democracy and trust, AND a foreign power does not come in to meddle with progress or perhaps put in their own dictator, THEN “they” will have it. I would even go so far as to say…

Do you have some empirical basis for all of this? (I don't at my fingertips - it would be great if you do!) Let's name the elephant in the room: It's trendy to talk down democracy these days, by the megalomaniacs who think they should rule the world and be unbound by others, by dictators, by the right wing in the US and other places which wants to impose its vision on everyone else. IMHO it's children toying with mat…

> Why the men? At least one well-known theory is that the education and development of women is tightly correlated to overall development.

Absolutely. It’s a fool’s errand to try to develop the men without prioritizing the development of women (ie mothers of men). I’d even go as far as to say the underdevelopment of women directly results in the corruption of whole society; how many vandals, militants, and generally corrupt men are the result of absent or uneducated mothers?

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#208

Post by lotsofpulp » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 9:08 PM UTC

wolverine876 wrote: post #197

lotsofpulp wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If they want it, they will have it. More like if they are lucky to have above subsistence living, and they (specifically the men) have sufficient time and are smart enough to organize and, eventually, over generations, create a culture of democracy and trust, AND a foreign power does not come in to meddle with progress or perhaps put in their own dictator, THEN “they” will have it. I would even go so far as to say…

Do you have some empirical basis for all of this? (I don't at my fingertips - it would be great if you do!) Let's name the elephant in the room: It's trendy to talk down democracy these days, by the megalomaniacs who think they should rule the world and be unbound by others, by dictators, by the right wing in the US and other places which wants to impose its vision on everyone else. IMHO it's children toying with mat…

I don’t mean to talk democracy down, it’s great in my opinion.

It’s just the initial conditions under which democracy can flourish may require being un-democratic first.

>Why the men? At least one well-known theory is that the education and development of women is tightly correlated to overall development.

Because they are physically more powerful. A tribe of men able and willing to dish out damage is usually only stopped by another similar tribe. So there has to be a critical mass of them (specifically the leaders) who are willing to forego violence and accept compromise.

We have an easy example before us. Israel and Palestine or Russian and Ukraine. Two or more tribes want the same land, and there is no sufficient middle for there to be middle ground.

So if you were to draw a line around the perimeter of both tribes and setup a democracy, it’s probably not going to work out.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#209

Post by Sammi » Mon, Apr 01, 2024, 9:43 PM UTC

constantcrying wrote: post #175

StrauXX wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No they don't. The issue with dictatorships is that your powerbase rurns from "the people" (or a wealthy subset of the people, depending on how well your democracy works), to a small group of powerfull supporters. Army generals, police chiefs and so on. Even if you were an angel, the power dynamics of dictatorships don't give you the ability of doing all too much for the general populace. Thats the beuaty of democrac…

>Your power base is (indirectly and delayed, but still) the people. In almost any democracy the power base are political parties who have the obligation and ability to control what politics are allowed to manifest in the country. Very few democracies (a notable exception might be Switzerland) actually allow for the general population to act against what the political parties want. The population exists as a feedback…

> If you want to tell me that the population just can create a new party, look how well that works in the US

Most European countries have new popular parties come into existence regularly. Regularly.

Your voting system in the US is broken.

Re: Notes on El Salvador

#210

Post by wolverine876 » Thu, Apr 04, 2024, 9:50 PM UTC

blackhawkC17 wrote: post #206

wolverine876 wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they lack the proper mindset and culture of maintaining one. What is your basis for saying why they failed? Maybe they were just overwhelmed by violent dictators (and, like people in the US now, by anti-democratic propaganda). Democracy works across cultures; the examples are overwhelming from Latin America to the US to S Asia to E Asia (including the most prosperous part of China, and the most prosperous city in C…

I know it because I live in one (Nigeria). My country of 200 million+ is not under any threat from a violent dictator. The issue is terrible corruption and a culture that values irrational tribalism over democratic dialogue and cooperation. There's a reason the Middle East has no successful democracy except Israel, and that's because Israel's culture is largely Western-oriented and fit for democracy.

Nigeria hasn't done it well yet. It takes time to build those institutions and that culture. The US was not a successful democracy for many years - and is still an imperfect one now. Generations worked and built so the future generations could have something better.

Democracy doesn't necessarily change people, it gives them self-determination, a mechanism for change.