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Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

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Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let's not forget that (European) immigrants were mostly wanted, so as to provide needed workers. Sure. I’m talking about the long-term effects of that deliberate policy choice. > Again, the "movie" is that over generations, those people became fully assimilated into American society and values. Quite a bit of evidence shows that core cultural values, such as levels of social trust and attitudes towards the nature o…

> core cultural values, such as levels of social trust and attitudes towards the nature of government, are durable across generations Interesting. Does that take into account the mixing of cultures as the generations go by? My own immigrant ancestors came to this country in the 19th- and early-20th centuries — from four different countries in northern- and southern Europe; two different religions; and arguably three…

> Interesting. Does that take into account the mixing of cultures as the generations go by?

It’s using GSS data, which doesn’t identify ancestry in that level of granularity. But I suspect mixing changes the host culture significantly. My wife is of almost completely British American descent. I’m of completely Bangladeshi descent. But because in my culture married couples assimilate into the husband’s family, the kids are being raised with a strong dose of Bangladeshi traditionalism.

> Which "British America[]"? The New Englanders like the Puritans, and later the Adamses? The mid-Atlantic Quakers? The Virginians? The Cavalier enslavers who came from their Carribean sugar plantations to grow cotton? Very different subcultures.

The British America that was the confluence of those British sub-cultures—the things they agreed on and their distinctive conflicts. In particular, participatory self-government reflecting both Puritan small towns and Jeffersonian agrarianism has been supplanted by mass government.

The widespread American attitudes towards government is now similar to those in Bangladesh, which was shaped by half a millennium of Mughal and then British rule. The government is the administrator of a fractious and foreign population. “Democracy” is reduced to merely “voting.”

> My guess is that Trump appeals to a certain fearful, hero-worshipping, authoritarian mindset that's widely distributed among the human population, and whose adherents have far greater ability to communicate and organize than ever before.

That’s close to the same point that I’m making. Every society has conservatives and liberals—these are rooted in psychological traits. Specific conservative or liberal ideologies, however, are rooted in culture. When you change the country’s cultural mix, you change what kinds of political ideologies you need to carry a viable coalition. And when you fragment the culture, politics becomes much more about unifying around things that speak to gut-level reactions across cultures.

The small-government conservatism that would be popular in Rhode Island can’t win Florida. You need to cobble together a coalition of Mexicans in Arizona, Scots-Irish in West Virginia, Cubans and Puerto Ricans in Florida, Germans in Ohio, etc. And Trump is the manifestation of that.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> core cultural values, such as levels of social trust and attitudes towards the nature of government, are durable across generations Interesting. Does that take into account the mixing of cultures as the generations go by? My own immigrant ancestors came to this country in the 19th- and early-20th centuries — from four different countries in northern- and southern Europe; two different religions; and arguably three…

> Interesting. Does that take into account the mixing of cultures as the generations go by? It’s using GSS data, which doesn’t identify ancestry in that level of granularity. But I suspect mixing changes the host culture significantly. My wife is of almost completely British American descent. I’m of completely Bangladeshi descent. But because in my culture married couples assimilate into the husband’s family, the kid…

> But because in my culture married couples assimilate into the husband’s family, the kids are being raised with a strong dose of Bangladeshi traditionalism.

But your kids aren't watching Bangladeshi TV, are they? And I'm guessing they don't run around with mostly-Bangladeshi friends.

You might be surprised how your kids are being influenced by your wife — and her family. I've read over the years that culture is transmitted primarily by the mother; that certainly fits what I've observed casually.

And let's not forget that at some point most kids tend to rebel — especially against authoritarian fathers (and then maybe later revert to what they remember from childhood).

> In particular, participatory self-government reflecting both Puritan small towns and Jeffersonian agrarianism has been supplanted by mass government.

Alexander Hamilton and his fellow Federalists would like a word. Jeffersonian thinking was certainly present at the Founding but was by no means dominant.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US housing market crashed back in 2006 because tech started showing promise ("Web 2.0", mobile shortly thereafter) and the money left housing to buy into the newfangled tech. This is definitely the first time I’ve read this. Do you have more info on that?

> This is definitely the first time I’ve read this. Do you have more info on that? This would be a particularly unique explanation for the bursting of property bubbles all over the world (like, does this also explain the Irish property bubble crashing?).

If you can have a something for nothing investment market it will always get in the way of actually doing something useful.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Historically nothing sets up a country better for future success than lots of immigrants Ummm citations needed urgently. I would point out, immigration policy vs anyone without a passport is welcome are two complete scenarios that the only thing in common is that outsiders are coming in. Unchecked immigration policy as a good thing is a myth. People from clashing cultures dont mix naturally. Only results are natura…

"Keep, ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

It is 2024 now. Why should we live by the standards of some poem in 1883?

If we want society to continue updating its morals, why not update the morals about immigration as well?

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#115
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting. Could you share a source?

Not the OP but suspect the source is this: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censu...

Thank you for this. It does clearly corroborate that figure of 9%.

Still, 230,000 dwellings of 2,125,000 in total is a lot to be be vacant during an accommodation crisis. As I said elsewhere, the number of vacant dwellings is higher than most would suspect.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I say fixing I primarily mean government fixing. But thanks for insulting my ability to read because I used the wrong synonym (fixing/control). Therefore I will ignore price gouging laws because that's a form of the above but also if reasonable they won't apply to a person selling their own single allocation. > In this scenario, eventually no amount of money can buy food. You could be the richest person on earth…

> So I still don't see a big difference here between 90 meals and 90 houses for 100 people. The difference is that once the meals are consumed, that's it. 91st in line can't buy food no matter what. No amount of money is going to produce the 91st meal. As such, when food stocks are tight, you cannot rely on price to determine the buyer. You have to resort to some other mechanism. Given the limited information you pro…

> consumed

90 meals per day.

> if he has enough money, will buy a house from someone in the first 90 who got there first

Which takes longer than waiting for the next day. You're making a distinction that doesn't really exist.

> The other 10 are priced out. Those 10 are not market participants, they are simply dreamers.

I can only laugh at this. If people give up, then it's not a shortage?

You claim my definition makes everything a shortage, because you ignore the other rules I would apply because you think they're too subjective. But your definition makes nothing a shortage.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#117
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the OP but suspect the source is this: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-cpr/censu...

Thank you for this. It does clearly corroborate that figure of 9%. Still, 230,000 dwellings of 2,125,000 in total is a lot to be be vacant during an accommodation crisis. As I said elsewhere, the number of vacant dwellings is higher than most would suspect.

Often the issue is where exactly those vacant dwellings are. Typically, booming metro areas will have a low vacancy rate, while the vacancy rate will be high in rural areas or declining cities, where economic prospects are more dubious.

Demand is local. If someone needs to live in Dublin for their work, it doesn't help them much if there's cheap housing a few hours away.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#118
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for this. It does clearly corroborate that figure of 9%. Still, 230,000 dwellings of 2,125,000 in total is a lot to be be vacant during an accommodation crisis. As I said elsewhere, the number of vacant dwellings is higher than most would suspect.

Often the issue is where exactly those vacant dwellings are. Typically, booming metro areas will have a low vacancy rate, while the vacancy rate will be high in rural areas or declining cities, where economic prospects are more dubious. Demand is local. If someone needs to live in Dublin for their work, it doesn't help them much if there's cheap housing a few hours away.

The only two studies I'm aware of that look at this (admittedly from ~10 years ago and for England and the city of Melbourne in Australia) suggest that the proportion of vacant properties is highest where prices and capital gains are greatest. Not intuitive, but that's what they show.

But yes, it would be helpful to see the breakdown of that census data.

Edit: There is actually a breakdown by county if you scroll down the page. Dublin and Cork appear to be at 6 and 7% respectively.

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#119
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People predicting the Canadian housing bubble would burst probably didn't think the government would resort to such absurdly high levels of immigration. https://globalnews.ca/news/10386750/canada-41-million-popula...

I'm interested that you used the word "absurd" - how come? Historically nothing sets up a country better for future success than lots of immigrants - if it's paired with government policy that doesn't discourage growth...

> Historically nothing sets up a country better for future success than lots of immigrants

Are immigrants fungible?

Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst

#120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So I still don't see a big difference here between 90 meals and 90 houses for 100 people. The difference is that once the meals are consumed, that's it. 91st in line can't buy food no matter what. No amount of money is going to produce the 91st meal. As such, when food stocks are tight, you cannot rely on price to determine the buyer. You have to resort to some other mechanism. Given the limited information you pro…

> consumed 90 meals per day . > if he has enough money, will buy a house from someone in the first 90 who got there first Which takes longer than waiting for the next day. You're making a distinction that doesn't really exist. > The other 10 are priced out. Those 10 are not market participants, they are simply dreamers. I can only laugh at this. If people give up, then it's not a shortage? You claim my definition mak…

> If people give up, then it's not a shortage?

No...? That doesn't make any sense. People also have to give up when there is a shortage. Some people giving up is a constant here. I am sorry to report that the world does not have infinite resources. Economics is a thing only because we have to manage allocation of the limited resources.

If you want to take that angle, the mechanism by which they give up is what is significant. If they give up to a price-based mechanism, then you have what is considered a normally functioning market. But if price is unable to rise and thereby they have to give up to some other mechanism, then you have what is considered a shortage.

> You claim my definition makes everything a shortage

Frankly, I have no idea what your definition is. I stated that if you want to consider dreamers participants in the market then everything that comes with a cost is in shortage. Obviously. That's why there is a price. If we had the resources to allow everyone to have everything they could ever dream up, everything would be free. Any time you see a price of more than free – even just 1¢ - you know there are people wanting more of something than there are of those somethings available.

If it is that this does align with your definition – which I'm guessing is why you called it your definition – what are you communicating by exclaiming 'shortage', exactly? It doesn't say anything.

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