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List of emerging technologies

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Re: List of emerging technologies

#11

Post by soup10 »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

Less time sitting in traffic due to more efficient road usage could help maybe?

Also if self driving cars became the norm, I could see a lot of automobile usage becoming similar to a "taxi" situation where the nearest car picks you up, and you could opt for an economical plan where the car picks up passengers going the same way.

At this point it's just speculation because nobody knows what kind of novel usage patterns and macro effects we'll see if driverless automobiles become the norm. We just know it will be a huge net positive in the long run. If only for the millions of truck drivers who would be unemployed and hopefully quickly re-employed doing something else useful.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#12

Post by jarek »

Symmetry wrote: post #9
joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

Its quite true that driverless cars per se would have just the effects you mention. But if driverless cars mean that suddenly nobody owns a car and just rents a car from the automated taxi fleet when they need a ride we'd probably see most of them be lightweight single occupancy vehicles, meaning less pollution overall.

Every time I see someone explain why they need a car they always mention big grocery trips and often taking kids somewhere or other. It doesn't seem like driverless cars will do away with those, and if they're really so necessary, most cars available probably won't be lightweight and single occupancy.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#13

Post by pyre »

toemetoch wrote: post #10
K2h wrote: post #2

The whole head transplant[1] has got to be the most disturbing thing on that list. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_transplant

Disturbing, yes. But keep in mind that there are warehouses out there with people's heads cryogenically frozen. So there's a line of people queuing up, waiting for it to happen. :)

That may be true, but I was under the impression that cryogenic thawing wasn't necessarily a foolproof operation. That would seem to be to be the first step.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#14

Post by [deleted] »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

[deleted]

Re: List of emerging technologies

#17

Post by adamsmith »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

One more: the taxi fleet model (fewer cars) makes it easier to replace cars with newer models, which tend to include more environmentally friendly technology.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#18

Post by learc83 »

jarek wrote: post #12
Symmetry wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its quite true that driverless cars per se would have just the effects you mention. But if driverless cars mean that suddenly nobody owns a car and just rents a car from the automated taxi fleet when they need a ride we'd probably see most of them be lightweight single occupancy vehicles, meaning less pollution overall.

Every time I see someone explain why they need a car they always mention big grocery trips and often taking kids somewhere or other. It doesn't seem like driverless cars will do away with those, and if they're really so necessary, most cars available probably won't be lightweight and single occupancy.

I'm sure that there will still be plenty of multi-passenger cars.

But to your point, most people who drive trucks actually use the bed maybe a dozen times a year, and many people who have high occupancy vehicles take far more trips with only themselves or 1 additional passenger than they do fully loaded.

Single occupancy vehicles aren't practical for most people because they need a larger car some of the time, but if you don't own it you're free to request whatever vehicle you need right then.

Going to work by yourself--lightweight single occupancy. Picking up the kids--minivan.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#19

Post by Jun8 »

joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

Most people choose public transportation to avoid the agony of commuter traffic (mine is ~2hrs per day). Not only is it time consuming but you can't do anything else during that time other than get bored. If I had a self driving car, I could work during the commute, making the incentive for taking the train much lower.

It would take much analysis and user studies to see if effects like this that encourage people to drive more or car sharing effects will dominate. But reducing air pollution definitely is not a foregone conclusion.

Re: List of emerging technologies

#20

Post by Symmetry »

Symmetry wrote: post #9
joshuahedlund wrote: post #7

Why is "reducing air pollution" a potential application of driverless cars? The other benefits allow people to driver faster and safer on the same amount of roads, but I don't see how that would encourage less driving that would lead to less air pollution. Faster driving = less gas mileage, and if driverless cars dramatically lowers the opportunity cost of driving people may be encouraged to put even more miles on th…

Its quite true that driverless cars per se would have just the effects you mention. But if driverless cars mean that suddenly nobody owns a car and just rents a car from the automated taxi fleet when they need a ride we'd probably see most of them be lightweight single occupancy vehicles, meaning less pollution overall.

Right, I just realized I forgot another important effect if we go the autonomous taxi route. Currently we have somewhere around 5 parking spaces for every car. I bet we could at least cut that in half with autonomous cars, making it reasonable to develop more densely, meaning shorter driving distances, and making trains a more attractive option for some trips.
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