Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
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Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
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Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#2I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today.
Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#3I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today. Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
People predicting the Canadian housing bubble would burst probably didn't think the government would resort to such absurdly high levels of immigration.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10386750/canada-41-million-popula...
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#4I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today. Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
Proponents of what is called the "real estate cycle" say it is about 18 years long (plus or minus, and discounting its disruption due to wars), from peak to peak. They say the next peak is due in late '26 or early '27 (October or March, if the month matters).
There are some that say they can predict the movements of land speculation based economies. I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that predicted the crash in 2008 accurately.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#5> Ireland had arguably the world’s largest housing bubble and crash in the 2000s, with prices quadrupling in the decade to 2007, even while supply soared, before crashing by more than half between 2007 and 2012. (emphasis mine)
That wasn't the accepted wisdom at the time. Prices going up spelled 'supply shortage' to most. When the tide went out (i.e. credit availability) it revealed an oversupply.
We should learn from this. Demand comes in two forms. Demand for housing and demand for property investments. We should not lose site of the drivers of the second type of demand. It can make what isn't a supply shortage look like one (and feel like one for the average person).
Edit: It's worth noting that 15 years after the collapse, prices in Ireland had finally recovered and once again a shortage of available housing is a reality. I say 'available housing', because the long term rental market is dire, but if it's a short term rental you're after, well...
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#6I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today. Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
Proponents of what is called the "real estate cycle" say it is about 18 years long (plus or minus, and discounting its disruption due to wars), from peak to peak. They say the next peak is due in late '26 or early '27 (October or March, if the month matters). There are some that say they can predict the movements of land speculation based economies. I'm familiar with old blog posts from back as far as maybe 2005 that…
Proponents of "millennial cycles" say it's about 1000 years long. They know as much as the 18-year cycle ones.
There's guys predicting the end of the world tomorrow from an alien invasion also, and if it happens they'd have been right, but not any smarter.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#7I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today. Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
Same in Australia.
I think governments (any party) will pull any lever available to prop up the market because of the role that property plays in the economy.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#8> Ireland had arguably the world’s largest housing bubble and crash in the 2000s, with prices quadrupling in the decade to 2007, even while supply soared , before crashing by more than half between 2007 and 2012. (emphasis mine) That wasn't the accepted wisdom at the time. Prices going up spelled 'supply shortage' to most. When the tide went out (i.e. credit availability) it revealed an oversupply. We should learn fr…
Did rents also go up? I'd expect investment demand to cause a dislocation between rent and price. If it's a supply issue then both will go up.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#9I’m not sure what’s different, but I will chime in to say that I’ve been reading about Canada imminent bubble burst for 15 years. I mean, eventually someone may be right, but had I let this get to me and not buy my house 12 years ago, I would be in a much worse position today. Be careful with people trying to predict how markets will move.
Canada's population just grew by a million people in 9 months; that's like 3%+ annualized growth. Add to that specific regions (Alberta just experienced net migration from every province and territory) and I find it hard to believe that anyone can predict "property bubble" with accuracy greater than 20 years resolution. I'm sure that won't stop so pundit from claiming victory when the music stops (or slows) and they have a chair.
Re: Why Ireland's housing bubble burst
#10> Ireland had arguably the world’s largest housing bubble and crash in the 2000s, with prices quadrupling in the decade to 2007, even while supply soared , before crashing by more than half between 2007 and 2012. (emphasis mine) That wasn't the accepted wisdom at the time. Prices going up spelled 'supply shortage' to most. When the tide went out (i.e. credit availability) it revealed an oversupply. We should learn fr…
Did rents also go up? I'd expect investment demand to cause a dislocation between rent and price. If it's a supply issue then both will go up.
Haha. Do rents ever not go up?
Edit: But seriously, it's available housing that matters. We can have a shortage of available housing with an oversupply if investment demand is high enough. That is what the Irish experience demonstrates. Only second homes and investment properties can be underutilised...
This is why I believe that any government serious about tackling an accommodation crisis should start by determining what proportion of homes are being used as a primary residence.