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All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

37signals.com

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Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#11

Post by johnbender »

zackzackzack wrote: post #9

It's a shame that all of that talent is working on things the author doesn't think are worthwhile. I mean, everyone should work on what everyone can agree on is worth their time, right? Yet, I don't think everybody can really agree on what is worthwhile for a person's time. I can point at people working on things like Linux and Khan Academy and say "Their efforts are worthwhile!" but then Microsoft and that one guy,…

I appreciate your relativistic stance, but there's a part of me that wonders if, as an example, Instagram provided a billion dollars worth of additional photo sharing value over what already existed on Facebook.

That is, photo sharing does have value to people who want to stay connected and have shared experiences via the internet, but I don't think that Instagram improved that to the tune of a billion dollars.

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#12

Post by tferris »

> All those smart and talented heads, and all those benjamins, didn’t progress the economic base in a way we’re going to care about tomorrow.

He's talking of Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, etc. and doesn't have the courage to name then. Is this envy? That DHH's products haven't got this far? Or just naive? Because he should know the typical deal terms of a Pinterest and that valuations and raising are blown up for the sake of getting PR and the real milestone payments are much smaller? And that FB IPO can still fail in the long run?

Whatever.

As much I appreciate DHH and his past work his posts have always the same bitter taste: 37signals is the benchmark and the rest is wrong.

EDIT: Hey downvoters, downvoting != disagreeing, just reply if you disagree

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#13

Post by loganfrederick »

DrJokepu wrote: post #8
AznHisoka wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you can just concentrate on building a sustainable business, and worry about more urgent things that will affect your business, rather than the macro-trends.

But "macro-trends" always affect your business even if you are building a sustainable one. Even if you have no investors, if your clients are suffering, you are suffering. If your clients' clients are suffering, you are suffering. If your clients' clients' clients are suffering, you are suffering.

You're right, but a truly valuable and sustainable business/technology will be one that clients consider worth paying for even when they are suffering.

There aren't necessarily a lot of modern tech companies that would survive this test though.

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#14

Post by potatolicious »

zackzackzack wrote: post #9

It's a shame that all of that talent is working on things the author doesn't think are worthwhile. I mean, everyone should work on what everyone can agree on is worth their time, right? Yet, I don't think everybody can really agree on what is worthwhile for a person's time. I can point at people working on things like Linux and Khan Academy and say "Their efforts are worthwhile!" but then Microsoft and that one guy,…

> "It's a shame that all of that talent is working on things the author doesn't think are worthwhile."

That's an unfair statement - I think more importantly the bubble is making people work on things that they themselves do not believe are worthwhile. You have more and more people entering the market working on things because they think it will flip for ${MAX_INT}, not working on products they genuinely believe people want, or will pay for.

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#15

Post by izak30 »

AznHisoka wrote: post #3
3pt14159 wrote: post #2

I'm finally coming around to thinking that it is starting. About three years ago people were screaming bubble because YC companies were getting $4m or $5m valuations and I wrote the following: "The truth is this: Bubbles don't exist without my aunt's mutual fund getting involved or my next door neighbor getting told to mortgage his house to invest by his financial advisor. Web 1.0 was all about IPOing on the nasdaq a…

Or you can just concentrate on building a sustainable business, and worry about more urgent things that will affect your business, rather than the macro-trends.

Agree or not, that's what DHH is saying here. It's harder for sustainable businesses to hire talent, when talent is getting paid more at places with enormous valuations.

This of course falls down if the large valuation and the large pay are justified by things like large revenues, or value to those with large revenues.

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#17

Post by lmm »

dave1619 wrote: post #5

I know the guys at 37Signals are a smart pack, but I don't understand their hangup with Instagram and Pinterest... and apparently FB (esp. their older posts). FB has proven to be able to make $billions of revenue and substantial profit, and is only growing. Isn't that proof that an ad-based model can work if it's large enough? Instagram was FB's biggest competitor... huge growth and huge adoption amongst young groups…

They're probably hung up because it's making them look small-time. What do 37Signals actually do, other than generate a steady stream of blog posts for HN? They make some sort of dropbox knockoff, right?

Re: All the oxygen trapped in a bubble

#20

Post by kevinpet »

Well, the key feature of a financial bubble is that no one is behaving irrationally at a micro level. Even if you know its a bubble, it may be worth trying to get in now and get out closer to the top.

Same thing with building social local mobile stain removal advice apps -- if someone's buying, then someone will be supplying it.

If it is really, no shit, a bubble, then there is a lot of money to be made by determining how to pop it.

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