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He'll be out around 2040: https://x.com/wagieeacc/status/1768798879959400776?s=46&t=N5... Shkreli far and away has been providing the most informed analysis of this case. He trashed the letters to the judge from SBF's parents, then Judge Kaplan went on to raise the exact points Shkreli said he would.
That’s an old tweet from 2 weeks ago.
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> If anything, it's excessive if you consider the nature of the crime relative to the nature of murder or kidnapping. I suspect the resulting number of shortened lives amongst all the people who lost $8 billion worth of their money due to the fraud is more than the number caused by a single murder.
I thought the “lost” money was simply due to poor accounting and actually found. > Kaplan said he had found that FTX customers lost $8 billion, FTX's equity investors lost $1.7 billion, and that lenders to the Alameda Research hedge fund Bankman-Fried founded lost $1.3 billion. https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-bankman-fried-be-sent... Clearly the real crime is bilking investors out of their money. It’s also que…
Shkreli dealt with the "making people whole/replacing money you took": it's not okay to steal or defraud people just because you later make them whole or they don't even realize that you did.
But even moreso, to your point: Please don't conflate the rising crypto price with SBF's intent. He didn't care about that. The fact that crypto rose and may have lessened the losses is entirely orthogonal to his intent, just a "fortunate" coincidence. It could equally have cratered. The people who are being recompensed are only being recompensed in part because of something entirely outside of SBF's control and intention.
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If someone isn't a violent threat to society, there isn't much social benefit to keeping folks locked up longer then 20-ish years. 20-25 (assuming he gets the 15% off for good behavior the feds allow) is plenty.
> If someone isn't a violent threat to society, there isn't much social benefit to keeping folks locked up longer then 20-ish years. This unfortunately widely held belief is measurably wrong and reeks of all kinds of biases. White collar criminals are one of the categories most likely to reoffend. Recidivism is much higher in white collar criminals precisely due to the leniency they often experience and the powerful…
Another aspect of white collar crime vs violent crime is that there's no real legal concept of self defense against white collar criminals while in most places there's varying degrees of force you can use in response to a violent crime being committed against you or a stranger. With white collar crime a psychopath wearing a corporation can act with impunity and ruin your livelihood in all kinds of ways and there's nothing you can do about it.
It's wild that 99% of the "point" of crypto and a Bahamas-based exchange was to avoid all the laws around securities trading, banking, money transferring (anti-money laundering, taxes, etc), etc and yet when things go south, people still expect the government to come in and enforce a tiny subset of the financial laws they've otherwise been operating outside of. This is a weird form of "privatize the profits, socializ…
More to the point, the IRS has been collecting taxes on Bitcoin earnings since around 2014[1]. Since the government is taxing you, it's fair to ask the government to protect you.
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[1] https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/freq...
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> If anything, it's excessive if you consider the nature of the crime relative to the nature of murder or kidnapping. I suspect the resulting number of shortened lives amongst all the people who lost $8 billion worth of their money due to the fraud is more than the number caused by a single murder.
I thought the “lost” money was simply due to poor accounting and actually found. > Kaplan said he had found that FTX customers lost $8 billion, FTX's equity investors lost $1.7 billion, and that lenders to the Alameda Research hedge fund Bankman-Fried founded lost $1.3 billion. https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-bankman-fried-be-sent... Clearly the real crime is bilking investors out of their money. It’s also que…
What? No.
The “lost” money was bet on red at the roulette wheel. While the firm was in bankruptcy, the wheel stopped spinning and came up red. That was enough to make customers whole to their original deposits. But it didn’t make up for capital gains, opportunity cost or the emotional damage caused by having your funds locked away for years.
> interesting that by contrast SVB leaders didn’t face any repercussions
Totally different situations. The analogy would be PayPal freezing everyone’s accounts for 3+ years while they put all the money into Peter Thiel’s hedge fund.
SBF was a top political donor in Washington. I expect a pardon by the end of this year.
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You think so? 25 years seems quite reasonable to me. He stole billions of dollars.
The victims are going to get paid back (in 2022 crypto prices) due to the appreciation of FTX’s assets (crypto and Anthropic shares). So if someone lost a bitcoin when FTX collapsed (BTC was at $18k at the time) they will get more than $18k but not $70k which is today’s price.
It could easily have crashed.
That it went in a direction that helps make his victims more whole is entirely happenstance and SBF should get ZERO credit or recognition for this aspect of restitution.
An uncle once commented about a cousin of ours that he demonstrated how it's possible to screw things up so badly that you can't possibly recover. I think that's true for Sam. I hope it's not true for the people in his orbit; I hope they can get out from under this and try to find meaning, ideally from repairing the harm they've done. As Rick Heicklen writes, "We are not ever going to be Sam. But we could be Caroline…
FWIW, I didn't find Lewis's book as bad (or amoral) as it's often made out to be. Yes, he didn't put his judgement in every paragraph, but his description of SBF was: a) absolutely damning! SBF's lack of empathy, his notion that (given that everyone else is stupid) he knew best and should basically ignore the advice of everyone else (particularly his elders), his naive utilitarianism without any deontological/virtue…
Would he have to torture puppies for fun to check all the boxes? Because if so, Hitler loved dogs.
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Well, 27.5 would be right down the middle. As others have suggested, likely he won't even serve the 25 though.
You should use a geometric mean for this sort of stuff. The difference between a one- and two-year sentence is much bigger than 25 and 26. So that would be 16 years, though obviously, it's foolish to use "right down the middle" as a heuristic for something like this. (The more severe a crime, the more incentive the defense has to pretend like it didn't happen at all.)