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The window for great-grandmothers is closing

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Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#81

Post by WillAdams »

whimsicalism wrote: post #54
WillAdams wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same. When my were in school and had friends who were visiting great-grandparents in nursing homes (and in one instance great-great), I had to explain that my great-grandfather was a Civil War veteran, and that I'd only met my grandfather (who worked as a sharecropper alongside freed slaves and the children of freed slaves on my great-grandfather's farm) once. One of those children lived behind us when I was growing…

feel like it is questionable to describe yourself as a sharecropper if your daddy owns the entire farm

He married one of the daughters --- two different family branches here.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#82

Post by titzer »

anonym29 wrote: post #60
titzer wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of ecological overshoot ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot ), which is a real problem ( https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-da... .). Gradual population decline through declining birth rates is the least jarring and least fascist way of getting human population down to sustainable levels.

A vast supermajority of the entire inhabited human planet is so far below replacement-level fertility that human extinction is now closer than the ice caps being completely 100% melted. This has been the case for several years and is a trend that still accelerating. Fun fact: human fertility per person is shrinking faster than GHG emissions per person are growing. Even with a handful of countries still breeding like…

I posted links because I've had this conversation many times over. The short version is: yeah, I used to be a techno-utopian too, 20 years ago. But none of those magic technologies are realistic, we aren't on the path to them being widely deployed, the population and emissions and resource consumption are all worse, as summarized in the conclusions of the experts who put together the Earth Overshoot Day report. If you want to argue about it, take it up with them.

> the invention of fertilizer

Nitrogen-based fertilizers are made with hydrogen from natural gas. The agriculture industry, at its base, is like the rest of modern economy: based on drawing down a vast reservoir of non-renewal fossil fuels, with the unfortunate massive externality of altering the composition of our atmosphere and the global climate in a bad way.

While technology will play a role in how humans adapt to the changes we've brought on ourselves, it's important to take realistic stock of where we are and where our trajectory is. Human population peaking will happen--the question is whether it's gradual or whether it's sudden. You don't want the global equivalent of this: https://www.geo.arizona.edu/Antevs/nats104/00lect21reindeer....

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#83

Post by CalRobert »

titzer wrote: post #13
CalRobert wrote: post #8

If you haven't read the article, it's about how people having kids later means you won't meet your great grandparents. My mom had me when she was 23, and her mom had her at 22. I'm in my forties and still have two living grandparents, and am very grateful for them. I remember a lot of days where my grandmother watched me and my sister, and she was able to do that because she was only in her late 40's herself and plen…

My family has really long generations. Going back 7 generations for me patrilinearly is exactly 280 years; 40 years per generation. When I was young my grandparents were already in their 80s and both grandfathers gone before I was 14. Sadly, both had mental decline (stroke, Alzheimers) and I never knew them in their right mind. They'd be in their 110s today. The idea of knowing my great-grandparents, who would be in…

My neighbour is a fifty year old guy and his grandfather was born in the 1860's. Both the grandfather and father had kids with much younger women. Funny how we're closer to the past than we think.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#84

Post by CalRobert »

maxerickson wrote: post #22
CalRobert wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely, but for some reason pointing this out is considered massively classist in some quarters. I don't really think it's classist to say that if people who don't value science, think climate change is fake, fear outsiders, etc. have 6 kids, and people who hold different have 1 or none, it will have a large impact on public policy in a generation.

Isn't it wildly classist to so patly assume that attitudes are that transmissible? My great grandfather had like 10 siblings and worked on a farm. What's that tell you about me?

Well, it's about averages really. If scientists were having eight kid families and creationists having one kid families the same logic would apply. Most people have value systems reasonably close to their parents'.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#85

Post by CalRobert »

titzer wrote: post #25
cool_dude85 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pointing out differences in age of first child for different groups (race, class, etc.) is not necessarily classist. It's the part that so often comes next, "therefore, we should..." that causes offense. Anyway, what's wrong with having 6 kids? People used to do it all the time and society was fine. Why shouldn't we set up our society in a way that allows this as a reasonable possibility?

Because of ecological overshoot ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot ), which is a real problem ( https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-da... .). Gradual population decline through declining birth rates is the least jarring and least fascist way of getting human population down to sustainable levels.

I generally agree, but a key issue here is fairness. Telling someone in India they can't have three kids because Johnny techbro wants to feel ok about flying 100,000 miles a year isn't great.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#86

Post by CalRobert »

BurningFrog wrote: post #41
titzer wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because of ecological overshoot ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_overshoot ), which is a real problem ( https://www.footprintnetwork.org/our-work/earth-overshoot-da... .). Gradual population decline through declining birth rates is the least jarring and least fascist way of getting human population down to sustainable levels.

Some see people as burdens, some as assets. I think this is a very important world view conflict.

The situation can be far more nuanced than this. It's not the people, it's the cars, cows, planes, land, and fuel they consume.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#87

Post by vel0city »

psychoslave wrote: post #79
vel0city wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"More like" not "exactly like". I'm not expecting them to all be farmers. But say, having similar-ish religious views, similar-ish social views, etc.

And how should we measure that?

There are literally hundreds of ways to slice population statistics other than just primary occupation. Practically any of those, maybe!

Do you find your primary occupation entirely defines every aspect of yourself?

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#88

Post by MenhirMike »

CalRobert wrote: post #83
titzer wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My family has really long generations. Going back 7 generations for me patrilinearly is exactly 280 years; 40 years per generation. When I was young my grandparents were already in their 80s and both grandfathers gone before I was 14. Sadly, both had mental decline (stroke, Alzheimers) and I never knew them in their right mind. They'd be in their 110s today. The idea of knowing my great-grandparents, who would be in…

My neighbour is a fifty year old guy and his grandfather was born in the 1860's. Both the grandfather and father had kids with much younger women. Funny how we're closer to the past than we think.

John Tyler was born on March 29, 1790 and served as the 10th President of the USA from 1841-1845.

His Grandson, Harrison Ruffin Tyler (Born November 9, 1928), is still alive today.

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#89

Post by [deleted] »

CalRobert wrote: post #83
titzer wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My family has really long generations. Going back 7 generations for me patrilinearly is exactly 280 years; 40 years per generation. When I was young my grandparents were already in their 80s and both grandfathers gone before I was 14. Sadly, both had mental decline (stroke, Alzheimers) and I never knew them in their right mind. They'd be in their 110s today. The idea of knowing my great-grandparents, who would be in…

My neighbour is a fifty year old guy and his grandfather was born in the 1860's. Both the grandfather and father had kids with much younger women. Funny how we're closer to the past than we think.

[deleted]

Re: The window for great-grandmothers is closing

#90

Post by Afton »

CalRobert wrote: post #8

If you haven't read the article, it's about how people having kids later means you won't meet your great grandparents. My mom had me when she was 23, and her mom had her at 22. I'm in my forties and still have two living grandparents, and am very grateful for them. I remember a lot of days where my grandmother watched me and my sister, and she was able to do that because she was only in her late 40's herself and plen…

The upside is that I was a total basket case in my 20s, completely incompetent to be able to raise a child. I'll leave it to my children on how it turned out in my 30s. Generally I'd expect older adults to have done a lot more maturing and increased ability to emotionally regulate, which is a really critical ability when dealing with the 4th day of 3 hours of sleep and a colicky baby (for example).

Also no point. But honestly, if you want people to have kids earlier, you need to make them think that their life won't be bleak if they do.

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