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What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

kentlaw.edu

171–180 of 182 posts

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Question does not seem to apply. What point are you trying to make or what mystery baffles you about the concept of an employee of a billionaire?

Why does being an employee of a billionaire matter? I could be a janitor.

Being an employee of a billionaire matters because the billionaire, and by proxy their employee, is held to a different standard than everyone else.

They didn't say anything that implied this applied to every single emoyee of a billionaire, so the janitor who happens to work for a billionaire and happens to buy a stock doesn't change anything or invalidate that point.

The employees being referenced are the ones employed to do trades for investors or for the company itself or for the billionaire themself (which might be a person or a group or a company).

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#172

> Lebed professes that he did nothing wrong – he did nothing different from Wall Street analysts. He states that he learned how people react to the stock market and acted on that knowledge. So you trick people by lying to them, and it's ok because you take their money indirectly via the stock market. And because some analysts also do this (often suffering legal consequences), then it's definitely not wrong? Shameful.…

> The 2007–2008 financial crisis, or Global Economic Crisis (GEC), was the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the Great Depression. Predatory lending in the form of subprime mortgages targeting low-income homebuyers,[1] excessive risk-taking by global financial institutions,[2] a continuous buildup of toxic assets within banks, and the bursting of the United States housing bubble culminated in a "perfect sto…

Others getting away with similar (or even worse) isn't a strong argument that such fraud is OK. Plenty of voices rose up during that fiasco, and rules were changed.

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#173
post #25
post #6

TL;DR: he argues that he did the same as everyone else on Wall street, so the SEC fines him $285,000, letting him keep more than half a mil of net profits. The system works as intended

The SEC only found wrongdoing in eleven trades, whose profit netted approx $272K. They did not penalize him for trades not found in violation of the law. Clearly, too long, didn’t read.

The issue of which particular trades were in violation of the law doesn't appear to be that clear cut:

> Michael Lewis, writing for New York Times Magazine, acknowledges that there were victims who suffered from Lebed’s actions, yet asserts that the SEC only settled because they believed they would not be able to win in court, and that its evidence was not as strong as it had alleged

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are only a finite number of possibilities here. If you're stuck with a machine you don't like that shows you harmful advertising because it has no viable competitors, the problem is with the law, because it's propping up that institution or otherwise failing to enforce anti-trust laws. If that machine exists, even though there are plenty of viable competitors that don't do that, and then you freely choose that…

I agree that a marketplace of ideas is indeed the solution to the information asymmetry problem. I think we need to change the web so that nobody but the user has authority over which data is displayed in context with which other data such that platforms cannot prevent critical annotations from appearing next to content (or annotations that simply remove that content)... supposing the user has opted into those annota…

> I think we need to change the web so that nobody but the user has authority over which data is displayed in context with which other data such that platforms cannot prevent critical annotations from appearing next to content (or annotations that simply remove that content)... supposing the user has opted into those annotations. I'm working on such a protocol.

To some extent browsers (i.e. users agents) already do this -- it's how ad blockers work. Naturally large corporations are always looking for ways around this, like using native apps for specifically the things (like social media) that have no reason at all not to be a web page -- or better yet, a feed protocol like RSS with a client app which is independent of the service.

A modern protocol which is basically RSS for social media content would be welcome. Probably even among content creators. But not so much social media conglomerates.

> We just collectively refuse to accept it.

If there are 10 grocery stores in town and 8 of them go along with this, the miners just shop at the other two, or the mine starts selling groceries in the company store. In order to be effective it would have to be close to universal, at which point you're basically reinventing government. Notice how if 51% of people are in on it, you already have the votes to pass a law.

Trying to tag money with the evil bit is also a fool's errand because it's fungible. Suppose that AT&T isn't in on your boycott, so they accept the hundred bucks from the mine to pay their phone bill, and put it in their account with billions of other dollars. Now AT&T is tainted. They're going to pay that money to their employees who will use it to buy everything from everywhere and in two weeks there won't be an account in the country that hasn't been Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon'd into having tainted money in it, or the boycott becomes a self-DoS because there are fewer places you can patronize while respecting the boycott than the miners can.

Conversely, suppose you're not willing to taint money that some huge corporation accepts. Well, now the miners just go to Walmart, who isn't in on your boycott, and use it to buy a prepaid debit card which isn't tainted because Walmart doesn't publish that information, and then use the card to buy whatever they want.

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that a marketplace of ideas is indeed the solution to the information asymmetry problem. I think we need to change the web so that nobody but the user has authority over which data is displayed in context with which other data such that platforms cannot prevent critical annotations from appearing next to content (or annotations that simply remove that content)... supposing the user has opted into those annota…

> I think we need to change the web so that nobody but the user has authority over which data is displayed in context with which other data such that platforms cannot prevent critical annotations from appearing next to content (or annotations that simply remove that content)... supposing the user has opted into those annotations. I'm working on such a protocol. To some extent browsers (i.e. users agents ) already do…

> you're basically reinventing government

Well, yes. The ability to spin up a government when there's the kind of problem that needs one and dissolve it when that problem goes away is indeed what I'm after.

How else are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your existing government? You've got to spin up a new one. (Consider all the US-installed dictators in South America in the 80's as an example. If only the citizens of those countries had something like this and were prepared to coordinate a resistance.)

> Money... Is fungible

Is it? I've worked at enough payment provides and been through enough trainings about KYC the OFAC lists and heard enough proposals regarding CBDC's to doubt that that's true anymore. It's just that only privileged parties are allowed to use the non-fungibility of money to their advantage.

As for the Kevin Bacon thing, that's kind of the point. When I accept some fiction in exchange for parting with something real, I want it to carry enough metadata to know who I'm helping and who I'm harming by doing so. That way I can make better decisions

It's not "the" evil bit, it's annotations by people who I may or may not share interests with. It's a restoration of information symmetry.

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have the energy to dissect all this, but you're completely conflating legality, enforcement, and provability. We have juries for a reason. Most would a priori find it hard to believe that someone who found a winning strategy would repeatedly post it on random message boards with altruistic intent.

Juries need some basis on which to make a decision. The law is ridiculous if it only turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say while operating the identical scam. It's not clear why telling people you think a stock is going to go up after you've already bought it would require altruism, and more than that you would benefit by building a reputation as someone who makes accurate predic…

> The law is ridiculous if it only turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say while operating the identical scam.

You'd be very shocked...

... but that's essentially what criminal defence is about :-/ In a sense half the value of having a defence lawyer is having somebody to remind you not to say stupid things to the police/investigators/prosecution.

Of course it's not really as simple as that, but you'd be surprised at the number of convictions where the prosecution relied on something stupid the defendant said. If (say) 50% of convictions "turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say", is the law ridiculous? Because that's what it generally is like (not just for securities fraud cases).

PS: for cases where it's particularly easy to feign ignorance/innocence, sometimes the law specifically states that the mens rea requirement is waived (i.e. the intent/knowledge does not matter, or does not need to be proved beyond reasonable doubt). This in turn gives opportunity for defence lawyers to argue this infringes on the right of the defendant to be presumed innocent..

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does being an employee of a billionaire matter? I could be a janitor.

Being an employee of a billionaire matters because the billionaire, and by proxy their employee, is held to a different standard than everyone else. They didn't say anything that implied this applied to every single emoyee of a billionaire, so the janitor who happens to work for a billionaire and happens to buy a stock doesn't change anything or invalidate that point. The employees being referenced are the ones emplo…

So this is, say, for people who invest for pension schemes that the billionaire happens to have a pension with, for example?

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think we need to change the web so that nobody but the user has authority over which data is displayed in context with which other data such that platforms cannot prevent critical annotations from appearing next to content (or annotations that simply remove that content)... supposing the user has opted into those annotations. I'm working on such a protocol. To some extent browsers (i.e. users agents ) already do…

> you're basically reinventing government Well, yes. The ability to spin up a government when there's the kind of problem that needs one and dissolve it when that problem goes away is indeed what I'm after. How else are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your existing government? You've got to spin up a new one. (Consider all the US-installed dictators in South America in the 80's as an ex…

> How else are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your existing government?

How are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your new government?

What are you going to do when the incumbent corrupt government declares your alternate government to be unlawful?

> Is it?

Being fungible is the purpose of money. It's why a doctor doesn't have to find a farmer who needs medical care in order to have lunch.

> I've worked at enough payment provides and been through enough trainings about KYC the OFAC lists and heard enough proposals regarding CBDC's to doubt that that's true anymore.

Are you aware of the effectiveness of KYC? It's basically zero. Because money is fungible.

Suppose Bob is naughty and nobody is allowed to give him any money, but Bob wants to sell iron and buy wheat. Alice wants to buy Bob's iron. So Alice tells Bob she can't give him money and asks what he wants instead. Bob says wheat, Alice buys wheat from someone she's allowed to buy things from, then trades the wheat for Bob's iron, which is a process that involves Alice and Bob but not banks so nobody else knows it's happening. Trying to prevent this is futile but causes a lot of collateral damage and overhead and the people who continue to insist it be attempted should become unemployed.

> When I accept some fiction in exchange for parting with something real, I want it to carry enough metadata to know who I'm helping and who I'm harming by doing so.

And what I'm saying is that the metadata would just be a meshed graph containing everyone in the world.

Let's come back to AT&T. If someone you don't like pays them $100 and then they put the $100 in an account with a billion other dollars from ten million other people, what do you want metadata on money that comes out of that account to say? That the money is from everyone? Because it is. But how does that help you decide anything? All money would say that within a trivial number of transactions because it would quickly end up going through some large institution which mixes it with money from millions of other sources and then sends it back out into the general economy.

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#179
post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Juries need some basis on which to make a decision. The law is ridiculous if it only turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say while operating the identical scam. It's not clear why telling people you think a stock is going to go up after you've already bought it would require altruism, and more than that you would benefit by building a reputation as someone who makes accurate predic…

> The law is ridiculous if it only turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say while operating the identical scam. You'd be very shocked... ... but that's essentially what criminal defence is about :-/ In a sense half the value of having a defence lawyer is having somebody to remind you not to say stupid things to the police/investigators/prosecution. Of course it's not really as simpl…

> If (say) 50% of convictions "turns on whether you had a lawyer ahead of time to tell you what not to say", is the law ridiculous?

Yes.

It's entirely believable that at least 50% of laws are ridiculous.

> for cases where it's particularly easy to feign ignorance/innocence, sometimes the law specifically states that the mens rea requirement is waived (i.e. the intent/knowledge does not matter, or does not need to be proved beyond reasonable doubt).

But that's not the issue.

If you go out to the parking lot and your key fob unlocks someone else's car of the same make and model, e.g. because the manufacturer screwed up and made any of the keys open any of the cars, and then you claim that you thought that car was yours when you drove off in it, the prosecution now has to prove that you intended to steal someone else's car. Which they may yet even be able to do, if there is other evidence that implies you knew what you were doing, but it's completely reasonable that they have to prove it.

Whereas if you went out into the parking lot and broke the window of a car and then hot wired it, your actions are evidence of your intent. And, importantly, it's generally difficult to avoid actions that signal your intent while perpetrating a car theft.

The actual problem for this type of securities laws isn't just that the prosecution has to prove your intent, it's that their only means to do that is effectively a confession. There is no plausible way to operate a chop shop such that hiring a lawyer ahead of time would keep you out of prison when you get found out, but for parts of the financial industry that's what happens, which is absurd. There is no justice in a law that can only be enforced against people without effective counsel.

Re: What Happens When a Fifteen Year Old Pumps and Dumps with a Net Profit of $800k? (2002)

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you're basically reinventing government Well, yes. The ability to spin up a government when there's the kind of problem that needs one and dissolve it when that problem goes away is indeed what I'm after. How else are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your existing government? You've got to spin up a new one. (Consider all the US-installed dictators in South America in the 80's as an ex…

> How else are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your existing government? How are you going to resist people with enough market power to corrupt your new government? What are you going to do when the incumbent corrupt government declares your alternate government to be unlawful? > Is it? Being fungible is the purpose of money. It's why a doctor doesn't have to find a farmer who needs med…

re: corruption, the impromptu government in my scenario only exists because a group of people decided to form it by collectively deciding the same way re: which money they'll accept and which they won't. It is legitimate so long as they continue to agree. If it stops being legitimate, then it stops being effective at the problem it was created to solve, people stop agreeing, and poof, it disappears.

The goal is only to make this kind of resistance possible. If it's the wrong tool for the job, stop using it and use something else.

re: incumbents, the assumption is that they're so sclerotic that they can't respond to novel scenarios. If this weren't the case, you could've just used them to deal with the driniking water problem in the first place.

re: fungibility and barter, the idea that "before we had money, we had barter" is often repeated in economics classes, but the anthropological evidence doesn't support it. Before the Roman empire violently asserted that caesar-face coin was more valuable than the metal it was made of, we did more or less what I'm describing. People with shared interests kept track of debts between each other, and people without shared interests refused to do so. It didn't scale super well, but now that we have computers, it can.

re: fungibility and kyc, there are plenty of people who are in jail for at one point having had the wrong kind of money, because it's not fungible.

re: a meshed graph containing everyone in the world

Well yes, that's how we treat money today, but I don't think it's sustainable. It concentrates too fast into the hands of too few. Why play a game in which you were born into a losing position? My generation decided to play, but I don't think that'll keep happening, because every generation has worse and worse reasons to. The French got fed up with their royalty, the children of the future will get fed up with their Quadrillionaires. The French chose violence, I'm proposing something else. A way to make old money into not money without taking anybody's head.

If you opt in to something like this, all that remains is new money--money issued with a purpose (we have this already, money enters the system when loans are granted, those loans were granted because somebody at a bank thought something was worth doing, a mining project perhaps). You don't have to track every single transaction, just the ones where money is created. I think people should have the ability to look at money and decide if its original purpose was a worthwhile one (nowadays the loan reasons are hidden from us). This would create better behavior among those so audacious as to create things and propose that they be treated like money.

For inflation reasons, money will also need to exit the system, so it's not going to hang around forever. As for whether you need metadata on every hand that is passes though from creation to destruction, or whether it's good enough to accept/reject anonymously handled money based solely on the conditions of issuance... that's up to the people. If they deem an abstraction legitimate by being willing to accept it as money, so be it. If not, well I guess we'll need bigger databases or more aggressive demurrage schemes such that the histories don't become unwieldy.

I realize that this all seems a bit outlandish, I must seem like a crazy person to you. But it's clear to me that our system has some very damaging design flaws, and I can't tolerate watching the subsequent harm without at least spinning my wheels now and again in search of an alternative.

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