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Be more lucky

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Re: Be more lucky

#21

Post by Tade0 »

gosub100 wrote: post #16
Tade0 wrote: post #5

My personal experience is that quite often "luck" is just someone winning via statistics. After all, when you try something that has a 1% probability of success seventy times, it becomes a coin toss whether you succeed at least once. I was "lucky" with the apartment I bought because I've become obsessed with checking listings and at one point was doing it several times a day. Took eight months to find the right prope…

Can you help me understand those types of real estate markets? If they are sold immediately doesn't that mean the sellers are giving up substantial gains by not asking enough?

I don't understand them either to be honest.

What I do know is that most of the apartments I've seen which were offered at a good price went for sale as part of a divorce settlement. My significant other has an uncanny talent in getting such information from people.

This neighbourhood was planned with families in mind and people hold on to their properties here, so I suspect it's mostly divorcees wanting to deal with the matter as soon as possible.

Normally investors scoop it all up, but at the third attempt in this area I managed to get ahead of them.

Re: Be more lucky

#22

Post by 331c8c71 »

quadcore wrote: post #12

Robert Greene explains in a video his 48th law of power. The rule is there is no rule. Life is fluid he says. You've got to pickup the little clues, use your intuition and your gut feelings. This perfectly matches my experience of life. When you arrives in a situation with a premade plan and execute blindly, it often fails dramatically, even if on paper you did exactly what you were supposed to. Especially with peopl…

> Do you picture what a person must pull off to get that seat? It's unimaginable.

On the other hand there is a seat that must be filled and hence there will be somebody taking that place. It's a zero sum game: if you win I lose.

I would rate proving Poincare conjecture and that kind of thing much higher because its _not_ zero-sum and is a pure advancement.

Re: Be more lucky

#23

Post by pjerem »

gosub100 wrote: post #16
Tade0 wrote: post #5

My personal experience is that quite often "luck" is just someone winning via statistics. After all, when you try something that has a 1% probability of success seventy times, it becomes a coin toss whether you succeed at least once. I was "lucky" with the apartment I bought because I've become obsessed with checking listings and at one point was doing it several times a day. Took eight months to find the right prope…

Can you help me understand those types of real estate markets? If they are sold immediately doesn't that mean the sellers are giving up substantial gains by not asking enough?

Most of the time, sellers are in the process of buying another place (or other life reasons like divorce or whatever) so they are incentivized to sell at a good price but also pretty quick.

Re: Be more lucky

#24

Post by IshanMi »

I remember someone telling me that they thought of luck as being as one of four kinds:

- blind luck (which is what people usually mean by "luck")

- stirring the pot (if you apply to 100 jobs you might get more "luck" than if you applied for just 10)

- domain expertise (the more knowledge you have, the more opportunities you can spot that others might miss)

- reputation (if you're the world's best painter then when people want a painting they'll immediately think of you)

Re: Be more lucky

#25

Post by pjerem »

Tade0 wrote: post #21
gosub100 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you help me understand those types of real estate markets? If they are sold immediately doesn't that mean the sellers are giving up substantial gains by not asking enough?

I don't understand them either to be honest. What I do know is that most of the apartments I've seen which were offered at a good price went for sale as part of a divorce settlement. My significant other has an uncanny talent in getting such information from people. This neighbourhood was planned with families in mind and people hold on to their properties here, so I suspect it's mostly divorcees wanting to deal with…

Divorce makes the fastest sales but the thing is people always sell for a reason anyway and every seller have somehow a deadline depending on what’s next.

Re: Be more lucky

#26

Post by snowpid »

quadcore wrote: post #12

Robert Greene explains in a video his 48th law of power. The rule is there is no rule. Life is fluid he says. You've got to pickup the little clues, use your intuition and your gut feelings. This perfectly matches my experience of life. When you arrives in a situation with a premade plan and execute blindly, it often fails dramatically, even if on paper you did exactly what you were supposed to. Especially with peopl…

" The great leaders are masters at that. I often think about the current China leader for example. It's just an example. " You mean that guy who brings Chinese economy into troubles and just does one genocide (or two, if you count Tibet).

Re: Be more lucky

#27

Post by TrainedMonkey »

IshanMi wrote: post #24

I remember someone telling me that they thought of luck as being as one of four kinds: - blind luck (which is what people usually mean by "luck") - stirring the pot (if you apply to 100 jobs you might get more "luck" than if you applied for just 10) - domain expertise (the more knowledge you have, the more opportunities you can spot that others might miss) - reputation (if you're the world's best painter then when pe…

A couple studies have shown that people who believe they are lucky get better outcomes. Something about looking at most positive outcomes - https://www.frameofmindcoaching.com/blog/why-are-some-people...

Re: Be more lucky

#28

Post by quadcore »

331c8c71 wrote: post #22
quadcore wrote: post #12

Robert Greene explains in a video his 48th law of power. The rule is there is no rule. Life is fluid he says. You've got to pickup the little clues, use your intuition and your gut feelings. This perfectly matches my experience of life. When you arrives in a situation with a premade plan and execute blindly, it often fails dramatically, even if on paper you did exactly what you were supposed to. Especially with peopl…

> Do you picture what a person must pull off to get that seat? It's unimaginable. On the other hand there is a seat that must be filled and hence there will be somebody taking that place. It's a zero sum game: if you win I lose. I would rate proving Poincare conjecture and that kind of thing much higher because its _not_ zero-sum and is a pure advancement.

Thanks for bringing that up.

More and more for practical purposes I tend to believe that - sit tight - everybody is solving or capable of solving the Poincaré conjecture. Let me explain.

Granted some people are simple, but most are actually very gifted at what they do ; it's just that the type of engineering they do is different than yours (or mine, whatever). Besos says "there is a million types of inteligence".

Some are good at making dramas for example - and they'd beat you at that game every single day. Some others are good at, I dont know, working out.

Many people are very very good at playing dumb is actually my very point. And they love that. If you are observant, you'll see little clues that they are geniuses in some ways. It's just that they dont care about advancement. In itself it's a form of dumbness but beside that, they freaking good.

You can easily do x2 on your percieved intelligence and engineering capabilities of people. They way way better at what they do than meet the eye. Especially nowdays as they are educated.

It's very practical to think that way Ive found.

Re: Be more lucky

#29

Post by antisthenes »

IshanMi wrote: post #24

I remember someone telling me that they thought of luck as being as one of four kinds: - blind luck (which is what people usually mean by "luck") - stirring the pot (if you apply to 100 jobs you might get more "luck" than if you applied for just 10) - domain expertise (the more knowledge you have, the more opportunities you can spot that others might miss) - reputation (if you're the world's best painter then when pe…

So they just didn't know what luck was and invented their own definition to sound smart?

2 and 3 are definitely not luck, because it's affected by your actions. 4 can have partial luck, because people sometimes view you better or worse than you expect, and you can't predict your complete reputational outreach.

1 is the only definite piece of luck here, like being born to the right parents, or a stranger that you held the door for being the CEO that offers you a job.

Re: Be more lucky

#30

Post by quadcore »

snowpid wrote: post #26
quadcore wrote: post #12

Robert Greene explains in a video his 48th law of power. The rule is there is no rule. Life is fluid he says. You've got to pickup the little clues, use your intuition and your gut feelings. This perfectly matches my experience of life. When you arrives in a situation with a premade plan and execute blindly, it often fails dramatically, even if on paper you did exactly what you were supposed to. Especially with peopl…

" The great leaders are masters at that. I often think about the current China leader for example. It's just an example. " You mean that guy who brings Chinese economy into troubles and just does one genocide (or two, if you count Tibet).

See my other comment. Some (most?) people dont care about advancement. Or rather, their position on that is complicated for practical purposes.
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