Be more lucky
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Be more lucky
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Re: Be more lucky
#2[deleted]
Re: Be more lucky
#3Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short term. Any characteristics derived from self-reported or externally observed data that successful group shares is always askewed due to selection or surviorship bias because of this.
The only true thing here is: people who analyze the data more and reason based on this, can draw better outcome. It is not luck, but yes, might look like one.
Cheers!
Re: Be more lucky
#4Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short term. Any characteristics derived from self-reported or externally observed data that successful group shares is always askewed due to selection or surviorship bias because of this. The only true thing here is: people who analyze the data more and reason base…
I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
Re: Be more lucky
#5My personal experience is that quite often "luck" is just someone winning via statistics.
After all, when you try something that has a 1% probability of success seventy times, it becomes a coin toss whether you succeed at least once.
I was "lucky" with the apartment I bought because I've become obsessed with checking listings and at one point was doing it several times a day.
Took eight months to find the right property and now when I talk with people looking for a place everyone swears that there's nothing for sale in my area.
The truth is that there is - 3-4 times a year and you have to call the same day, because it gets bought immediately.
Re: Be more lucky
#6Luck has been associated with "happiness" in many cultures across the last few thousand years. There is a concept of management accounting of "rewarding for b while hoping for a". I think the soft focus that allows for creativity helps "luck", but everyone who "knows better than you" wants to proud out good behavior by rewarding for b.
Re: Be more lucky
#7Reminds me of the old phrase, "luck is when preparation meets opportunity". The strategies discussed in this article seem to maximize the "opportunity" side of that equation.
Re: Be more lucky
#8Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short term. Any characteristics derived from self-reported or externally observed data that successful group shares is always askewed due to selection or surviorship bias because of this. The only true thing here is: people who analyze the data more and reason base…
I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
> take more chances
That seems to be the key here.
Re: Be more lucky
#9Successful people are keen on telling their success story while people who did not win are busy trying agian or have depression in quiet corner, hopefully short term. Any characteristics derived from self-reported or externally observed data that successful group shares is always askewed due to selection or surviorship bias because of this. The only true thing here is: people who analyze the data more and reason base…
I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
You can work harder at tossing coins and toss them more often but previous outcomes do not affect current or future outcomes in any way. No matter how many times in a row a coin lands tails up, there is still only a 50% chance that it will land heads up on the next flip.
Working harder/smarter than someone else at something for which each try increases your capability to influence the next try should give you an edge in a competition but now it's not about luck.
> I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
Now, if anything, you can also postulate that people who believe they are lucky don't work harder and take less chances (hey, they are lucky, they don't need to try as much as others).
So the question would be: why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck more than some who don't think they are lucky and why do some people who think they are lucky try their luck less than some who don't think they are lucky ? It's two opposite behaviour but they have the same belief. Why ?
Re: Be more lucky
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wonder if those who believe they are lucky work harder and take more chances than those who don’t.
You can work harder at tossing coins and toss them more often but previous outcomes do not affect current or future outcomes in any way. No matter how many times in a row a coin lands tails up, there is still only a 50% chance that it will land heads up on the next flip. Working harder/smarter than someone else at something for which each try increases your capability to influence the next try should give you an edge…
If price of failure on a coin toss is less than the value of success, then flipping the coins as rapidly as possible is a winning strategy. (I've worked on failure after failure, but the occasional success has more than compensated for these).