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Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

dcurt.is

61–70 of 122 posts

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#61
post #52
post #48

"Microsoft makes an endless quantity of software that is alluring to big businesses, like Office, SQL Server, Exchange, SharePoint, etc..." Let me offer some perspective on this. I worked for a number of years as a programmer at a large (read: "enterprise-scale") entity. Being in closer physical proximity to the general workforce than our IT department, I was often the go-to guy when employees needed tech support. An…

You've never used Lotus Notes then ... you have no idea what non-intuitive counter-productive UI is until you use Notes.

It's that much worse when your company still uses a version that has reached end of life. I must loose a good 30 minutes a day because of that.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#62
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People belittle Ballmer because: (1) they were the big villain for a long time and there's still a lot of unspent schadenfreude with their name on it. (2) they've always been juxtaposed with Apple which is in meteoric rise like nothing we've really ever seen. (3) because monkey boy Their stock price is flat only if you don't include the dividends they've paid out.

"Their stock price is flat only if you don't include the dividends they've paid out." You have that backwards. If people think a company will pay out big dividends, then they bid up the price of the stock. That Microsoft's stock has remained mostly flat despite good dividend payments suggests that the stock would have plummeted without the dividend payments, and it will plummet if the dividend payments stop. A flat s…

Buyers will only bid up if they expect the dividends to increase without compromising the ability of the company to pay further dividends, or if the dividend is paid out with an asset that is currently worthless the way it's being used. It's really no different than growth stocks -- they are bid up with the idea that the last owner of the stock will ride it out in dividends until the final sale of assets.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#63
One thing could be sure is that he's business man, not really a product man, and hundreds of miles from a technology man. The problem of this is, he can't really manage his reports because he has no real idea of what they are doing, and what's going wrong. Jobs isn't a technology man either, but he knows what a good products is, and who are good in technology.

Microsoft needs a great CTO to compensate what's not there in Ballmer. Btw, they should fire the one who decided WP7 doesn't need native development kit. That is the most stupid idea I've ever seen. Gee, they had the best native toolchain inherited from years of work on WM!

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#64
post #43
post #30

"Microsoft's execution in mobile has been excellent". This could not be farther from reality. Microsoft has consistently lost money in the mobile market, to a point they are ashamed of it, and don't even give sale figures for the Windows Phone OS anymore. Profits from this business unit is reported in the "Entertainment and Devices" unit, which has turned a loss this quarter, again, of $229M. The only argument the au…

Can you give us a realistic game plan that starts with the iPhone launch & WinMo6 and ends better? After iPhone excellent execution gets you failure, that's just the current state of the market. They've made awesome deals with companies like HTC, even convincing HTC to pay them $15 for every Android phone they sell, etc. They've pretty much got Nokia on lockdown almost exclusively WinPhone7.

Can you give us a realistic game plan that starts with the iPhone launch & WinMo6 and ends better?

That's sort of the point... Microsoft's game plan ought not to have started with the iPhone launch.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>value investors Just following your logic here, value investors bank on the market's eventual rationality? Or is it rather that a company who is undervalued for no real reason today might be overvalued for no real reason tomorrow?

I don't remember who first said it, but it's worth repeating, "the market can stay stupid longer than you can stay solvent"

If your life savings is invested in one undervalued company then sure, that's pretty risky. If you happen to have a portfolio spread amongst many undervalued companies, then I'd love to be in your shoes no matter what people quote at me.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#66
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The market does not think. It is neither efficient nor rational. If the stock market is about the future, then how do you interpret Goldman Sachs' share price of $235 in November 2007? 1 year later it fell to $53. A company's share price will tell you nothing about the actual financial stability or future of the company.

This man is absolutely right. The stock market is rarely rational. This is exploited by value investors , like myself, who invest in companies that are undervalued for no reason.

If the rest of the market undervalues them it can still undermine a value investor by sticking the company with high interest rates on bonds etc.

Keynesian beauty contest etc

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't remember who first said it, but it's worth repeating, "the market can stay stupid longer than you can stay solvent"

John Maynard Keynes. s/stupid/irrational/

Thank you. I'm not sure if I'm proud or embarrassed to be an unintentional Keynesian.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#68
Forbes named "worst CEOs" based on one pretty clear criteria: These CEOs have failed to create value (or stopped creating value) for their shareholders over long periods, yet remain employed, and their companies remain pretty large.

GE has underperformed the S&P by 40% since Immelt took over, Microsoft by 30%, Walmart by 40%, and while both Lampert and Chambers created value for a while, their companies have substantially trailed the market over the last 3 and 10 years, respectively.

Ballmer is perhaps guilty of inheriting a growth company just as it stopped growing, but you can't deny that Microsoft has essentially stopped growing under his watch.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#69
post #43
post #30

"Microsoft's execution in mobile has been excellent". This could not be farther from reality. Microsoft has consistently lost money in the mobile market, to a point they are ashamed of it, and don't even give sale figures for the Windows Phone OS anymore. Profits from this business unit is reported in the "Entertainment and Devices" unit, which has turned a loss this quarter, again, of $229M. The only argument the au…

Can you give us a realistic game plan that starts with the iPhone launch & WinMo6 and ends better? After iPhone excellent execution gets you failure, that's just the current state of the market. They've made awesome deals with companies like HTC, even convincing HTC to pay them $15 for every Android phone they sell, etc. They've pretty much got Nokia on lockdown almost exclusively WinPhone7.

Here's my swing:

1. Start working on the reboot immediately, rather than dismissing the iPhone as a fad for over a year.

2. Include at least some source-level backwards-compatibility so existing developers don't have to start over from scratch, even though the foundation is changing.

3. Be nicer to your existing OEMs (early OS access/input, wider hardware support, skip royalties for a year or two, etc.)

1-3 are just about cutting off the next potential disruption (which, in this case, turned out to be Android) off at the pass. To be successful in mobile, Microsoft didn't have to beat the iPhone. They just needed to defend their position against everything else, which they spectacularly failed to do. There's also:

4. Don't buy Skype or if you do, give up on carriers and work on direct-to-consumer (and direct-to-business) "Skype smartphones" using data-only SIMs.

Re: Steve Ballmer's Microsoft

#70
"While Microsoft is no disruptive force in tech today, the truth is that it has never been."

This is so false it is painful for me to read. I'm embarrassed for the author.

"The company's core competency is a process it uses for entering and consuming existing industries. After it enters a market, it rides off the innovations of its competitors, uses its existing brand power and sheer size to tackle a large surface area at the bottom of the market, and then, finally, it develops a valuable platform on top of the new market. As the platform grows, it slowly squeezes out the existing players."

Name one instance of this in the past 15 years. One. Oh wait, the author lists a few!

Xbox? Well, they have operated at a loss for the first seven years or so, ousted the entire create leadership team (Bach and Allard say howdy), and now are turning nice sums of coin. But this isn't truly Microsofts win, it is the entire industry's failures. Nintendo and Sony are seeing bad times. The currency difference is hurting Japanese companies, who are tired of innovating. Even many lead game designers are admitting the Japanese are years behind the US market. With Sony in turmoil and Nintendo trying to figure out how to right the ship, it is no wonder the years Xbox has seen a profit are only recently.

"Windows Mobile"

In 2010 Ballmer himself said they' lost a "whole generation of users". They dropped the ball so hard that even after the debut of the iPhone, when Google realized it was time to explore a new approach to Android, Ballmer didn't understand why it would be popular. Ballmer displayed a weak passion for mobile yes, but the crime here is that he displays no vision.

Windows 7 is years too late. Nokia will die in a vain attempt to give this OS a chance, but it will never work. The audience only sees two contenders in the ring.

"Windows" This is the only horse worth mentioning. It, and thus Office, are the default winners. Xerox, Kleenex, and Windows. They win this category by default as 99% of users could care less about the OS they use.

But there are an insane amount of products not mentioned here! Where are the Zunes, the silverlights, the Vistas, or the Azures? There are hundreds of horrific decisions we all watch spiral out of control. Remember the Kin? How I so wanted to play with its awkwardness. Or the Courier? How I pulled at my hair when they killed not only the product, but laid off the entire team. Remember Ensemble or Bizzare Creations? They made some beautiful games. Remember Surface? Remember a decade of IE's disgraceful finger in the face of all web users?

This is a history of successes? It sounds like a meandering path of exploration, where one in one hundred connects. This is luck.

The overall premise here is that Microsoft deserves a gold star for existing. They made 6.3B profit last quarter! Give them a break.

For comparison, Apple made 11.6B profit last quarter. That was a 47% increase from the previous year, which also had a 41% increase. These products were ideas that Microsoft had left behind, too busy swerving around trying to find a mission. Apple took the best ideas and developed a valuable ecosystem to grow as a platform. Sound familiar?

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