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A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

nytimes.com

1–10 of 100 posts

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#2
"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one."

It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#3
post #2

"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one." It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

An interview in the New York Times is not an academic research paper. In this context, it's reasonable for the interviewer to take the mathematician's word for it rather than hammering away at a pedantic detail that may or may not be relevant.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#4
post #2

"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one." It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

There was a documentary on HBO recently that stated this as well. What's going on is that someone who is obese needs less calories per day to maintain their weight than someone who is not obese. Something to do with metabolism rates slowing down when you are overweight.

See "Weight of the nation."

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#5
It's nice to see that people are developing new models and ways of thinking about weight loss but I wonder how effective this research is going to be. The conclusion of the article is the same old "eat less and eat healthier" which is fantastic advice ... and advice that a great many people don't bother to follow.

As a culture we're eating ourselves to death while worrying that low probability events like terrorist attacks are going to kill us. We're killing us and we're doing it slowly.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#6
post #2

"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one." It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

Thanks for bringing this up, I'd really like some statistical awareness to show up in science reporting.

> It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts.

I would settle for a simple statement that "An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one," all else equal or controlling for other factors.

So much of science is based off accepting statistical evidence, that it would be invaluable for science reporting to state, at least in laymans terms, the statistical veracity of results. In this case such a statement should be even easier since we're dealing with a theoretical model of obesity. Is there a coefficient for "current weight" that is independent of other factors?

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#7
post #5

It's nice to see that people are developing new models and ways of thinking about weight loss but I wonder how effective this research is going to be. The conclusion of the article is the same old "eat less and eat healthier" which is fantastic advice ... and advice that a great many people don't bother to follow. As a culture we're eating ourselves to death while worrying that low probability events like terrorist a…

Well, stop subsidizing farmers is probably a good takeaway.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#8
post #2

"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one." It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

An interview in the New York Times is not an academic research paper. In this context, it's reasonable for the interviewer to take the mathematician's word for it rather than hammering away at a pedantic detail that may or may not be relevant.

This would be reasonable if people who ought to know better didn't commit this kind of elementary error constantly, particularly in nutrition. It is your attitude, that it's reasonable to publish a scientific article in a major publication without independent thought and fact checking, that I am challenging.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#9
The Omnivore's Dilemma (Michael Pollan) goes into more detail on the history of the food boom in the 1970s and its link to obesity. Its a great read for anyone interested. Essentially we got hit with a one-two punch of food price paranoia and the high fructose corn syrup innovation.

Re: A Mathematical Challenge to Obesity

#10
post #2

"An extra 10 calories a day puts more weight onto an obese person than on a thinner one." It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place, i.e. whether these are purely correlational facts. It would be nice if the New York Times wasn't susceptible to elementary statistical fallacies like this but... well this is nutrition after all.

It needs to be explained how he determined that this isn't related to _why_ they are obese in the first place

I agree that more explanation is needed...the thinner person may be thin because she is more active, and the obese person may be obese because she is more sedentary. An extra 10 calories would seem more likely to put more weight on a sedentary person than an active one.

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