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Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

danluu.com

211–220 of 294 posts

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By 2004, a former KGB spook was in power long enough to introduce a falsification system. The 1990s were worse economically in Russia, but Yeltsin was a relatively liberal politician and possibly didn't want to falsify elections.

I am not sure. Yeltsin was “our guy”. He was feted by us, he even addressed the congress, etc. Until he was not when he refused to deliver Russia on a plate. Guys that are not “our guys” never win a legitimate election. Remember how integrity of elections were questioned when a guy that is not our guy won an election in 2016?

I am far from sure either, but Yeltsin had some "street cred" speaking for him. I remember the 1990s quite well, being a teenager with intense interest in politics.

He got to power by organizing a folk uprising against an attempted coup by KGB generals Kryuchkov et al., who were hardliners and quite skilled people as well; they caught Gorbachev and held him hostage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Soviet_coup_attempt

That coup could very well succeed and that would mean death for Yeltsin, possibly after a torture session in Lubyanka. He certainly demonstrated personal courage there.

What followed was "too free Russia". As in, lawless. It had certain advantages. For the first time in Russian history ever, multiple independent media sprang from the ground and journalists would criticize and attack powerful figures in a way that they no longer can; we're used to it, but open media criticism of powerful people is actually not that typical in the world. But at the same time, crooks stole everything and the regular Russian suffered. As a nasty consequence, democracy and freedom became one with poverty and corruption in minds of many Russians.

Yeltsin only contested one election, in 1996. His opponent Zyuganov was a classical communist. The result was 54.40% for Yeltsin and 40.73% for Zyuganov. Was this election clean? How can I know? But it wasn't a travesty with 90 per cent for The Leader and paper figures for "opponents"; Zyuganov was a real politician with a competing party and a very different program, and he got 40 per cent of the vote, and nobody fell out of the window etc.

Everything is relative, and I believe that for the standards of Russia, Yeltsin was by far the most liberal leader in its history.

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#213
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An instructive image of the welfare trap: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Welfare_trap.png People making $30K on welfare would need to make $81K at an actual job to have the same income after tax. More info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_trap

That graph needs [citation]s. The source it cites does not mention how they obtained the figures for childcare, and a questioner in the comments asks for, and does not receive, a source for that information. The source article itself doesn't even seem to be the source, it links to yet another article. That article also doesn't seem to be the source, the source appears to be … a politician. The childcare part — the la…

Here's an older CBO report making the same point (p.15): https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments...

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire welfare system should be vaporized and replaced with a tax credit for the poor (i.e. a UBI). Yep, call it a negative income tax if it goes down better than UBI, but many other things would be better than the system we have now.

The problem with UBI isn't so much the politics, it's the feasibility of the cost. $12k a year over 300 million people is 80% of the US government's tax revenue. A negative income tax might work out a lot better on the numbers, but it won't help the people that need it the most (the ones that can't get a job). But hey, maybe it can work. The US has a deficit spending of $1.7 trillion in 2023, $1.4 in 2022, $2.7 in 20…

This is nonsensical for numerous reasons

1. The federal government doesn't have tax revenue. It issues a currency and then taxes go toward countering inflation. The notion that a currency-issuing government needs to "balance its budget" in its own currency is a political fiction. Also, policies that benefit people at the lower end of the income spectrum disproportionately actually move money around in the economy, which generally speaking is less inflationary than allowing it to accumulate in various silos like hedge funds

2. A "negative income tax" doesn't have to require employment. You can make zero dollars in income as a self-employed person, and the self-employed still track their income for taxation purposes

3. There are many unnecessary-to-malicious subsidies and inefficient welfare programs that could easily have their rationale subsumed by UBI, and doing so would save considerable cost that is mostly the overhead of all the means-testing personnel and in some cases (like SNAP) completely separate financial machinery necessary to maintain them

Even setting all that aside, you could make considerably more "tax revenue" by funding the IRS or reversing some of the nakedly corrupt corporate tax breaks that have been created over the last several decades. There always seems to be more money to subsidize artificially lowering the price of certain goods, fund incredibly inefficient private government contractors to do things that once cost considerably less for the government to do itself, fund drug research only to then allow the resulting breakthroughs to be patented by a private firm and then gouge people for treatment, or buy ludicrously expensive weapons for militarized police forces, but propose anything that actually benefits people and suddenly everyone's worried about the costs.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but all this "Well have you considered the cost?" handwringing people do when UBI comes up just drastically misunderstands how governments use money, while claiming to be "responsible" and "realistic"

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The entire welfare system should be vaporized and replaced with a tax credit for the poor (i.e. a UBI). Yep, call it a negative income tax if it goes down better than UBI, but many other things would be better than the system we have now.

The problem with UBI isn't so much the politics, it's the feasibility of the cost. $12k a year over 300 million people is 80% of the US government's tax revenue. A negative income tax might work out a lot better on the numbers, but it won't help the people that need it the most (the ones that can't get a job). But hey, maybe it can work. The US has a deficit spending of $1.7 trillion in 2023, $1.4 in 2022, $2.7 in 20…

The cost is fiction because it's a tax credit. The money is on both sides of the ledger. If you're making $60,000/year and your pre-credit taxes go up by $12,000 and then you get a $12,000 tax credit, you have paid an additional zero dollars in taxes. If you don't make much money and the government used to pay you a net $10,000 in benefits and now you get a $12,000 UBI and pay $2000 in taxes, that hasn't actually cost any additional money, all it does is convert the needlessly inefficient constellation of benefits into cash.

The "universal" part of a UBI is serving the same purpose as the progressive rate structure in the income tax, i.e. you want an effective rate curve which is higher for the rich than the poor. Which means that you don't need both. What you use instead is a flat tax rate which serves as the de facto "phase out" for the UBI. Except that because it's all in one place, there are no cliffs, and there are no poor people paying higher de facto marginal rates than rich people, and there are no mountains of paperwork to apply for benefits.

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, this is well outside of my area of expertise, but the only factual dispute attached to the image in wikipedia is that SSI is only available to people essentially assumed to be out of the work pool. From the SSI site: "Little or no income, and Little or no resources, and A disability, blindness, or are age 65 or older." That's a pretty tiny slice of that graph. Maybe it just hasn't been thoroughly interrogated b…

The primary source is a welfare bureaucrat, Gary Alexander, Pennsylvania’s Secretary of Public Welfare, not a libertarian blog: https://youtu.be/Ruzo8bm96Io?t=2191

You mean former Secretary of Public Welfare, who resigned after two years on the job in 2013. He now runs an anti-welfare consulting business. He was highly controversial during the two years he was in the job, and the Obama administration had to step in. He also claimed he was moving to Pennsylvania, and then used public funds to commute to his Rhode Island home instead.

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#217

I went to school at a relatively late age and started in community college. The school/state had a policy where any independent income earners making less than 35,000/year would not pay tuition. A single dollar over that would require paying full tuition of ~$60/unit or about $750 a semester. One year I worked a little more overtime during the holidays than usual and realized with a week to go in the year that I'd go…

>I have never understood why things like this don't use some sort of sliding scale, rather than absolute dividing line.

Try translating your idea of a sliding scale into a piece of legislation which matches your intention.

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#218

A similar fun example is the distribution of Elo ratings on a chess site, e.g. here's the weekly distribution on Lichess for Bullet games (less than 3 minutes): https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/bullet It's easy to understand why this happens: - Player ratings will fluctuate by small amounts as they win and lose individual games. - People are happy to stop playing when their rating is at e.g. 1503, but if…

(That’s basically how the election falsification example in TFA works, too: a lot of individuals targeting a subjectively nice metric without cooperating with one another.)

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#219
post #70
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frankly, because many people think that any kind of welfare or assistance is, at best, a necessary evil—and more often just evil —and they want to make it painful, complicated, and hard to access.

[flagged]

A program strict enough to ensure that absolutely zero people get it who "shouldn't" is also a program strict enough that many of the people who should get it don't. Not because they don't meet the criteria, but because the bureaucracy around vetting people is sufficiently hard to navigate.

Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)

#220
post #149

A similar fun example is the distribution of Elo ratings on a chess site, e.g. here's the weekly distribution on Lichess for Bullet games (less than 3 minutes): https://lichess.org/stat/rating/distribution/bullet It's easy to understand why this happens: - Player ratings will fluctuate by small amounts as they win and lose individual games. - People are happy to stop playing when their rating is at e.g. 1503, but if…

Haha, guilty. I put my rapid rating above 2k and haven't played in months since then.

When I dip below 600, I usually get angry and play more, then lose and quit even further down.
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