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Is the Job Market Dying?

rachdele.substack.com

91–100 of 198 posts

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#91

Is there a route for high skilled engineer for going through this mess? Say, I am happy and confident to do all your leetcode/homework assignments + 8h interviews, but I want to be also top candidate as result.

Go for small firms, apply direct, see if you can mingle with the employees or even hiring manager somehow - a meetup they are attending, friends of friends, who knows.

One time around 2008 I was at a horrible conference put on by Blackberry (even then it was clear they were going to die), and I wound up talking to a guy for an hour about this and that, and it ended with an offer for a job at his firm.

Essentially you just need more hustle. When the standard situation is mass applications that are ignored, you need to try something novel and higher-effort.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#93
post #8

No, it is not. For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market. 1. Your best bet to get a job is your network. If you were a clock puncher, if you didn't go above and beyond, if you aren't the person who is gonna make the co-worker who vouches for you look good... you are not gonna get much help in your network. 2. The next best bet is to either a) start your…

Thank you. This article is just downright silly (and that does not mean I don't have a ton of empathy for people who are job searching right now). All of the following are true:

1. There was a massive amount of tech hiring not just over the pandemic, but really in the whole period from the end of the Great Recession until the latter half of 2022.

2. Many of those jobs were not just unsustainable pandemic hiring, but they were really just speculative hiring enabled by the ZIRP era, where more companies were worried about being left behind than overspending. Some examples: during the "Big Data Boom" there was an explosion of "data scientists" and "data analysts". I put those titles in scare quotes not because they're invalid jobs or something, but just that there was so much of a "just throw bodies at the problem" attitude that many of these roles were poorly defined at companies. Similarly, lots of companies staffed up massive user research teams. Turns out a lot of that low hanging fruit has been picked, and many companies have realized they can get by with much smaller, more targeted user research.

3. We are now undergoing a massive job restructuring, I would argue even stronger than what happened post dot com bubble, for a bunch of reasons: (1) the end of the ZIRP era coinciding with the end of pandemic-specific overhiring, (2) I've heard it said "Elon Musk showed with Twitter that you can run tech companies with a lot smaller teams" - while I strongly disagree (I'm always thinking, have you actually even used the complete garbage cesspool X has become, even more than before???), I think there is a valid point that a lot of companies just had way too many people than they needed, and (3) Gen AI really is having an impact on specific roles, e.g. copywriting roles and low-level data analyst roles.

It's simply a game of musical chairs where a ton of chairs were taken away all at once. Yes, the job application process is painful, AI-assisted ATS tools can feel like a labyrinth, and there are a lot more scams. But that is not the root cause. There are just a ton more people looking for jobs than there are roles available.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#94
post #5

> In fact, a recent survey of 1,500 job candidates by the staffing firm Aerotek found 70% of people find their current job search more difficult than the last, even though people are more qualified than before. I wonder how much survivorship bias is in there? If the job market is strong, then people who are candidates now are only those left who have a harder time finding a job? Or simpler: you'd expect the reported…

That does seem like it would be a problem! Like if you imagine 50% of people have an easy time (1 month search) and 50% have a hard time (2 months) and each person had two searches with no correlation:

The groups will be 25% each, ie .25 EH, .25 EE, etc., if you track only people who start looking for a job during the first month of their search. In the second month it will be 50% EH and 50% HH. So a total of 3/8 EH, 3/8 HH, 1/8 HE, 1/8 EE. Or 3/8 bad, 1/2 same, 1/8 better.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#95
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have sent exactly 3 applications in my career and been hired 4 times.

Then you're either not American, very well-connected, or you graduated during a bull market and always had the "right" amount of experience.

The only way I can even imagine this to be possible is 1. Your name is John Carmack or Ken Thompson or 2. You send your application out at the top of every single hiring bubble in history. Sorry, but I almost just don’t believe OP. It seems totally ridiculous and opposite to my lived experience over decades.

Ive probably sent roughly 500 resumes out over a 25 year career and got 5 job offers. Never even two simultaneous offers allowing me to choose. The ratio has been very, very consistent for me.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#96
post #59

Dying? It's been dead. I haven't been able to find a job in a year+. And that's with almost 20 years of product leadership experience. Bunch of interviews for company that at the end laid off another 20% of people rather than hire me etc etc. Tons of war stories, ghost job postings and recruiter bullshit. But no job.

In a similar boat and I feel your pain. FINALLY expecting an offer on Friday (from a Who’s Hiring HN thread.) Hang in there…

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#97
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree with #1. Not entirely but it is about perception. Working an extra 10-20 hrs a week for free in return for a chance but no guarantee of a vouch is in itself a bad deal. So while you may have reasons for working long hours, hoping someone has your back is not a great one. Unless you have known them since you were 8 or something and even then.

It’s called hustling. Not everyone makes it, but putting in extra effort improves your odds. It’s pretty amazing to me that this is now considered controversial.

My perception of hustling isn’t about long hours, unless those are hours hanging out after work building relationships. It’s more about making your self visible for the work you do, being memorable in a positive way, maybe helping people who in a way that leaves an impression. Working late to deliver one day early, no one is going to notice.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#98
It's been said over and over for the past number of months, but fewer companies have a lot of use for a person whose sole talent is "sling code" and you just need to start bringing more to the table, or be a top 1% leetcode nerd.

I'm seeing some self-taught quant/econ guys getting real software jobs without a ton of formal CS coursework, but a lot of practical experience. Turns out the employers love that shit.... go figure?? ;)

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#99
post #69
post #8

No, it is not. For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market. 1. Your best bet to get a job is your network. If you were a clock puncher, if you didn't go above and beyond, if you aren't the person who is gonna make the co-worker who vouches for you look good... you are not gonna get much help in your network. 2. The next best bet is to either a) start your…

I’d add one other option: look outside of tech. I knew people who were hit by the dotcom bubble pretty hard but ended up getting jobs in government, academia (I left for a computational research lab myself), non-profits, and high-touch but not tech businesses (e.g. a friend bailed to a law firm - they were flush with cash but none of the partners knew how or wanted to run the IT side of things.). I’d especially add t…

I would agree with this for state work as well. Alabama, because Montgomery is super cheap, is a very good option. I will warn you though...the red tape can take a while. Fill out the paperwork or call the local contract recruiters. We find most of our people that way. They come in on contract, which I did, and convert to government. Depends on the department but once you are in it is fairly easy to move around. DOT is Java, Banking is a mixture of Microsoft and open source, Medicaid is a mix etc. If there is nothing immediately it may take 6-9 months before you get a call but if you are reading this you will be in the top candidates. Sometimes I think we are as "out of the way" as Alaska as far as people considering working here but we would love to have you. I love the state and I didn't start here until I was in my late 40's. Shooting for retirement at 70-75+...I really just love doing this for a living. I moved to government after my 4th 5 year startup/SMB experience. Just needed the stability, someplace I could code and feel good about what I was doing again, and good health insurance. It's the nicest group of people I have ever worked with.

Re: Is the Job Market Dying?

#100
post #8

No, it is not. For those of you who are new here (aka didn't live through the 2000 bubble) welcome to a shitty job market. 1. Your best bet to get a job is your network. If you were a clock puncher, if you didn't go above and beyond, if you aren't the person who is gonna make the co-worker who vouches for you look good... you are not gonna get much help in your network. 2. The next best bet is to either a) start your…

“Shitty job market” is an awfully charitable way to say “illegal, anti-market activity is de-facto sanctioned now”.

We spent the lion’s share of the 20th century building a vast “sovereign wealth fund” of technology via effective partnerships between the public and private sectors (substantially though not exclusively under “defense” budgets of one kind or another): everything from the transistor to the laser to the packet-switched Internet to Unix, the list goes on and on.

Then, somewhat abruptly in the scheme of things, a few things happened around the same time: “Dutch” Reagan was sharp enough to realize that he was a fucking movie star not a policy person, and needed some academic and intellectual heft to round out a serious presidential bid. The exact causal structure remains unclear to this day, it seems mostly to be related to cashing in on a Cold War that was winding down but good for one last corruption orgy, but somehow he and Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand and Alan Greenspan all got together and sold the public on a bunch of policies that were and remain disasters (Greenspan has since grudgingly admitted that he was wrong about pretty much everything in the kind of tortured language people like that use when they’re wrong about everything), Lewis Ranieri realized that in his words “Mortgages are math” and began a disastrous trend of extreme complexity financialization that created modern K Street (basically figured out how to buy up the commons for pennies on the dollar by gutting any remaining taboos against flagrant bribery of elected officials) and smoothly pivoted all of this into the Clinton Administration while codifying “Goldman Sachs is where we source finance people” in the form of Robert Rubin and his heirs, and the piece de resistance: brought Larry Summers into the mix, whose biography reads like the prelude to impeachment proceedings: everything the guy has ever touched has been illegal, icky, stupid, racist, misogynistic, kleptocratic, corrupt, or all of the above.

The last person to put up a serious fight was Brooksley Born, who was in the middle of preventing both the 2001 and 2008 financial meltdowns (and therefore almost certainly preventing the rise of reactionary populism in the Western World) when the cabal of incompetent Randian fuckups knee-capped her (using gender discrimination as a lever) and basically started running the “build a technology-denominated sovereign wealth fund” process in reverse: it’s been game on regarding raiding that cookie jar if you have the right “network” ever since.

The Department of Justice was taking time out of its typical day chasing around terrorists and human traffickers and what not to try to police stuff like trivial collusion and flagrant wage fixing in technology as recently as like 2011-2012, but seems to have kind of given up: it’s a losing battle. The last major legal action around big cap tech wage fixing wound down with a 400MM parking ticket in ~2011.

Three guesses where Summers is putting his greasy thumbs (the rest of that clique is dead or retired) on the scale now and who is the heir apparent to this nightmare.

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