Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
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Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
1–10 of 294 posts
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#2A friend of mine from a farming family in Europe once told me a story that his family would wait until the year one of his siblings was due to go to college and then invest in new farm machinery. Their reported net income for the year would reduce or go negative and the sibling would get to college effectively for free on a hardship tuition grant.
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#3> The following histograms of Russian elections across polling stations shows curious spikes in turnout and results at nice, round, numbers (e.g., 95%) starting around 2004. This appears to indicate that there's election fraud via fabricated results
Two observations: 1. Why from 2004? Things were much worse in Russia before 2004. 2. The numbers of this election seem to agree with approval rating polls conducted by western agencies.
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#4Haha, I recall seeing a similar plot with a "suspicious discontinuity" when I looked up data on home appraisal price vs sale price. I remember asking the loan officer why the contract was forwarded to the appraiser before they did the appraisal, because that might bias their assessment. She gave me a funny look and replied "that's kind of the point."
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#5A friend of mine from a farming family in Europe once told me a story that his family would wait until the year one of his siblings was due to go to college and then invest in new farm machinery. Their reported net income for the year would reduce or go negative and the sibling would get to college effectively for free on a hardship tuition grant.
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Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#6> The following histograms of Russian elections across polling stations shows curious spikes in turnout and results at nice, round, numbers (e.g., 95%) starting around 2004. This appears to indicate that there's election fraud via fabricated results Two observations: 1. Why from 2004? Things were much worse in Russia before 2004. 2. The numbers of this election seem to agree with approval rating polls conducted by we…
By 2004, a former KGB spook was in power long enough to introduce a falsification system.
The 1990s were worse economically in Russia, but Yeltsin was a relatively liberal politician and possibly didn't want to falsify elections.
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#7A friend of mine from a farming family in Europe once told me a story that his family would wait until the year one of his siblings was due to go to college and then invest in new farm machinery. Their reported net income for the year would reduce or go negative and the sibling would get to college effectively for free on a hardship tuition grant.
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Corporations game the system all the time.
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#8A friend of mine from a farming family in Europe once told me a story that his family would wait until the year one of his siblings was due to go to college and then invest in new farm machinery. Their reported net income for the year would reduce or go negative and the sibling would get to college effectively for free on a hardship tuition grant.
Yep very common tactic for small business owning families.
Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#9> The following histograms of Russian elections across polling stations shows curious spikes in turnout and results at nice, round, numbers (e.g., 95%) starting around 2004. This appears to indicate that there's election fraud via fabricated results Two observations: 1. Why from 2004? Things were much worse in Russia before 2004. 2. The numbers of this election seem to agree with approval rating polls conducted by we…
By 2004, a former KGB spook was in power long enough to introduce a falsification system. The 1990s were worse economically in Russia, but Yeltsin was a relatively liberal politician and possibly didn't want to falsify elections.
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Re: Suspicious discontinuities (2020)
#10Similar to car prices, we see the same mental rounding effect in rents. People will rent a home for $2100 or $2200, sometimes even $2150 for those truly dedicated to price finding, but hardly anyone rents an apartment for $2137.
Source: my data for the city of Berkeley https://observablehq.com/@jwb/berkeley-rent-board-data#cell-...