71–80 of 340 posts
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Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
72 P/E ratio while they have a mere monopoly on one the most valuable resource in the world. Competition WILL come. Maybe it's Groq, maybe AMD, maybe Cerebras. Maybe there's a stealth startup out there. Point is, they're going to be challenged soon.
It's almost impossible to manufacture at scale with good yields and leading edge fabs are almost all bought out.
What is FP4, 4 bit floating point? If so, the comparison graph [0] with 30x above Hopper was a bit misleading. [0] https://youtu.be/Y2F8yisiS6E?t=4698
I think at this point, they should stop making it video “cards” but rather video “stations”, a full tower station with power supply and one giant “card” inside with proper cooling, etc., might also justify the crazy prices anyway.
FP8 being 2.5x Hopper is kind of disappointing after such a long time. Since its 2 fused chips, that means it’s 25% effective delta. though it seems most of the progress has been on memory throughput and power use which is still very impressive. I wonder how this will trickle down to the consumer segment.
Jensen revealed later that the LLM inference is 30x due to architectural improvements, it's massive. I don't know if it's latency or just 2-3x performance boost with 30x more customers served in the same chip. Either way, 30x is massive.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
No moat. Yes, CUDA, but CUDA is maaaaaybe a few tens of billion USD deep and a few (more) years wide. When the rest of the industry saw compute as a vanity market, that was sufficient. Now, it's a matter of time before margins go to, uhhh, less than 90%. Does that make shorting a good idea? I wouldn't count on it. The market can always remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Tesla went after them with Dojo and has still ended up splurging on big H100 clusters.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
No moat. Yes, CUDA, but CUDA is maaaaaybe a few tens of billion USD deep and a few (more) years wide. When the rest of the industry saw compute as a vanity market, that was sufficient. Now, it's a matter of time before margins go to, uhhh, less than 90%. Does that make shorting a good idea? I wouldn't count on it. The market can always remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I think at this point, they should stop making it video “cards” but rather video “stations”, a full tower station with power supply and one giant “card” inside with proper cooling, etc., might also justify the crazy prices anyway.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
From how I understood it, it means they optimised the entire stack from CUDA to the networking interconnects specifically for data centers, meaning you get 30x more inference per dollar for a datacenter. This is probably not fluff, but it's only relevant for a very very specific use-case, ie enterprises with the money to buy a stack to serve thousands of users with LLMs. It doesn't matter for anyone who's not microso…
They showed 30x was for FP4. Who is using FP4 in practice?
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How is 2.5x disappointing in one generation?
Compare to the 10x that was Hopper uplift.
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They are priced as if they are the only ones who are capable of creating chips that can crunch LLM algos. But AMD, Google, Intel, and even Apple are also capable. Apple is in talks with Google to bring Gemini to the iPhone, and it will obviously also be on android phones. So almost every phone on earth is poised to be using Gemini in the near future, and Gemini runs entirely on Google's own custom hardware (which is…
This seems as good a place as any to be Corrected by the Internet, so... correct me if I'm wrong. Making a graphics chip that is as good as Nvidia: Very difficult. Huge moat, huge effort, lots of barriers, lots of APIs, lot of experience, lots of decades of experience to overcome. Making something that can run a NN: Much, much easier. I'd guess, start-up level feasible. The math is much simpler. There's a lot of it,…
Without CUDA you have a chip that runs on premise without anyone having a clue how good that is which is supposedly what Google does. Your only offering is cloud services. As big as this is, corporations would want to build their own datacenters.