Stock unchanged in afterhours. A lot of people were hoping for a big pop on some big development.
At 2 trillion, it's all baked in already
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
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Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, stock price is not a good short term indicator about Nvidia developments, nor any company for that matter. Nvidia is doing a very good job. That being said, their stock is absolutely and hilariously overvalued.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
They are priced as if they are the only ones who are capable of creating chips that can crunch LLM algos. But AMD, Google, Intel, and even Apple are also capable.
Apple is in talks with Google to bring Gemini to the iPhone, and it will obviously also be on android phones. So almost every phone on earth is poised to be using Gemini in the near future, and Gemini runs entirely on Google's own custom hardware (which is at parity or better than nVidia's offerings anyway).
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#33Stock unchanged in afterhours. A lot of people were hoping for a big pop on some big development.
guy is messing it up bigtime and in real-time as well. sheesh. none of his jokes are landing. “we had 2 customers. we have more now”. long pause. screen behind him covered with logos of all his customers. pause. pause. finally applause. ok on to the next tidbit. whole conference has been proceeding like this now. look if you invite cramer and the wall street crowd, you should throw in some dollar figures. like - who…
Cramer is an entertainer. Not a developer or an investor.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, stock price is not a good short term indicator about Nvidia developments, nor any company for that matter. Nvidia is doing a very good job. That being said, their stock is absolutely and hilariously overvalued.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
Because their stock value is highly coupled with crypto mining and AI craze.
The move from PoW to PoS for most crypto networks in combination with bust of ‘22. NVDA slid down in value.
OpenAI debuts ChatGPT in late 2022 and now it’s suddenly bumping in price as the hype and rush for GPUs from companies of all types buys up their stock of GPUs. Demand is far outpacing the supply. Nvda can’t keep up.
Thus, share price is brittle. Competition in the GPU market is dominantly owned by Nvidia. That can change, but so far openai loves using nvidia for some reason.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#35Stock unchanged in afterhours. A lot of people were hoping for a big pop on some big development.
guy is messing it up bigtime and in real-time as well. sheesh. none of his jokes are landing. “we had 2 customers. we have more now”. long pause. screen behind him covered with logos of all his customers. pause. pause. finally applause. ok on to the next tidbit. whole conference has been proceeding like this now. look if you invite cramer and the wall street crowd, you should throw in some dollar figures. like - who…
You might not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, stock price is not a good short term indicator about Nvidia developments, nor any company for that matter. Nvidia is doing a very good job. That being said, their stock is absolutely and hilariously overvalued.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
72 P/E ratio while they have a mere monopoly on one the most valuable resource in the world.
Competition WILL come. Maybe it's Groq, maybe AMD, maybe Cerebras. Maybe there's a stealth startup out there. Point is, they're going to be challenged soon.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#37Time to sell. When they start becoming a platform, it means they have nothing more concrete in the near future. Sell now and buy again later once the price corrects.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#38I haven't listened to Jensen speak before, but am I the only one who thought the presentation wasn't very polished? Not a knock on anything he has accomplished, just an observation that sorta surprised me
He's selling water in a desert, kind of doesn't matter how polished his presentation is.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, stock price is not a good short term indicator about Nvidia developments, nor any company for that matter. Nvidia is doing a very good job. That being said, their stock is absolutely and hilariously overvalued.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
No moat.
Yes, CUDA, but CUDA is maaaaaybe a few tens of billion USD deep and a few (more) years wide. When the rest of the industry saw compute as a vanity market, that was sufficient. Now, it's a matter of time before margins go to, uhhh, less than 90%.
Does that make shorting a good idea? I wouldn't count on it. The market can always remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Re: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, stock price is not a good short term indicator about Nvidia developments, nor any company for that matter. Nvidia is doing a very good job. That being said, their stock is absolutely and hilariously overvalued.
Tell me more about why you believe their stock is hilariously overvalued.
Their market cap is 2.2T $.
In the past year, they had a revenue of 60B $ and net income of 30B $. Absolutely amazing numbers, I agree. The year before they had a revenue of 30B $ and a net income of 4.5B $ - and it was a rather good year. What happens next of course depend of how you judge the situation - was it a peak hype demand ? Will it stabilize now ? Grow at current extraordinary rates ?
Scenario 1 - margins get back to normal due to hype going down, competition improving etc - in this case the company is worth at best ~200B $ - or 1/10 of what it is now.
Scenario 2 - they maintain current revenue and the exceptional margins - the company would be worth ~1T - or 1/2 of what it is now.
Scenario 3 - they current growth rate (based on past 12 months) continue for ~5 years. This is the case the company is worth ~2T $.
But they are in a business where most money come from a handful of customers, all of which are working on similar chips - and given the sums in play now, the incentives are *very* strong.
My opinion, is that the company is already priced for perfection - basically the current price reflects the perfect scenario. I struggle to see any upside, unless we have AGI in the next 5 years and it decides it can only run on Nvidia chips.
All of this is akin to Tesla in the past years. They grew from a small startup to a medium car maker - the % growth rate was huge of course - an amazing achievement in itself. But people projected that the % growth rate would continue - and the stock was priced accordingly. Reality is catching up on Tesla, even if some projections are still absolutely crazy.