Earlier quoted context omitted.
Call me a cynic (many have, especially on this topic) but I can't help but think that the majority of what AI will "successfully" replace in terms of craftsmanship is going to be stuff that would've never been produced the "correct" way if you will. It's going to be code created for and to suit the interests of the business major class. Just like AI art isn't really suitable for anything above hobby fun stuff like ge…
The question is not about what AI can do today but what we assume AI will be able to do tomorrow. All of what you wrote in your second paragraph will become something AI will be doing better and faster than you. We never had technology which can write code like this. I prompted ChatGPT to write a very basic java tool which renders an image from an url and makes it bigger on a click. It just did it. Its not hard to th…
And I think many assumptions on this front are products of magical thinking that are discarding limitations of LLMs in favor of waiting for the intelligence to emerge from the machine, which isn't going to happen. ChatGPT and associated tech is cool, but it is, at the end of the day, pattern recognition and reproduction. That's it. It cannot invent something not before seen, or in our case here, it cannot write code that's never been written.
Now that doesn't make it useless, there's tons of code that's being written all the time that's been written thousands of times before. But it does mean depending what you're trying to build, you will run into it's limitations pretty quickly and have to start writing it yourself. And that being the case... why not just do that in the first place?
> We never had technology which can write code like this. I prompted ChatGPT to write a very basic java tool which renders an image from an url and makes it bigger on a click. It just did it.
Which it did, because as the other comment said, tons of people already have.
> Its not clear at all how fast we will progress but i'm pretty sure, we will hit a time were every junior is worse than AI which will force people of rethinking what they are going to do. Do i hire an junior and train him/her? Or do i prefer to invest more into AI? The gap will widen and widen, a generation or a certain amount of people will stay longer and might be able to stay in development but a lot of others might just not.
I mean, this sounds like an absolute crisis in the making for software dev as a profession, when the entire industry is reliant on a small community of actual programmers overseeing tons of robot junior devs turning out mediocre code. But to each their own I suppose.