451–460 of 604 posts
I mean, this might just be existential cope, but my first thought when looking at the Upwork demo posted on Twitter ( https://x.com/cognition_labs/status/1767548768734294113?s=20 ) was that it seemed a little bit suspicious. Namely, the client was asking for an unusually specific (for Upwork) ask. It was an almost perfect example of a job to be given to an AI agent for testing purposes.
There is no way this is going to make it so that "engineers can focus on more interesting problems and engineering teams can strive for more ambitious goals." Instead it will mean that bosses can fire 75-90% of the (very expensive) engineers, with the ones who remain left to prompt the AI and clean up any mistakes/misunderstandings. I guess this is the future. We've coded ourselves out of a job. People are smiling an…
If AI gets good enough to wholesale replace developers, that is amazing news for the world. It's basically AGI. Productivity and GDP growth would skyrocket, tax receipts will explode, gov debts will be paid off, etc.
I'm not saying that's what will happen, nor your version. Things are never that simple.
But shouldn't we be more precautious? And take time to understand the shift and prepare as a society for this big change? Why rushing on something that would potentially negatively affect millions people life in the hope of productivity boost?
The outcome is not all good, not all bad. We need carefulthinking and planning.
In addition, when using GPT-4, I use it only when I have new thoughts, so the GPU occupancy rate is low. I probably use less than 5 hours of GPU time each month. DEVIN is sort of like an intern working for you, so you would probably at least make it work 40hrs/week.
These difference in GPU usage would probably make DEVIN 10 times more expensive for the business model to be profitable, that is, if they are using the subscriber business model like GPT-4.
I don't think there are any other viable business model for DEVIN - for sure it cannot replace or even reduce the number of human programmer due to LLM's unreliable nature and the necessity of code verification.
Although the demos are impressive, they seem short and limited in scope which makes me wonder how well this will work outside of these planned cases. Can it do software architecture at all? Is it still essentially just regurgitating solutions? How often will the solution only be 90% correct, which is 100% not good enough? Even so, I realize the demos are still broad in scope and the results are incredible. Imagine se…
Ah yes, you've entered the first stage of grief. Denial. Next you'll start bargaining, you'll get angry, and you'll become depressed, eventually you'll just accept that AI is taking over software. In my mind, I've concluded that I have less than 3 years to find an off ramp.
"Surely if we generate code, it means we can replace developers right?"
Well no, it's not nearly enough. Good code generation with a UI is already a thing since the 90s, it's replacing developers as much as Frontpage and WordPress do.
The average developer writes 100 lines per day anyways so the speed of writing those lines doesn't matter.
Software is an interpersonal job at core and the most precise definition of a business.
The day software engineers are replaced by a machine, there's no job for the CEO itself honestly and that's also why this job is well paid. I'm sure it will be all over LinkedIn though, despite this paradox.
Those new tools will be there in the background but cannot replace a software engineer.
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A lot of startups are selling the dream/hype of not ever having to learn to code. Be aware that it’s hype. Learn to code if you want to build stuff. They will be tools for those that have the knowledge needed to effectively use them.
Reminds me of the no-code / low-code hype around 2020, tons of startups advertising app-builders that used little, if any, AI. Just blocks that you dragged-and-dropped. While many of them were successful, it seems like overall they didn't really make much of a dent in industry, which I found very curious. Like, by now you'd think it would be inevitable that we wouldn't be writing software in a text-editor or IDE. Eve…
I don't think most people are building landing pages anymore by handwriting code anymore. Same with blogs (eg. Wordpress). There are MVPs of successful businesses that've been built by Bubble.io. Internal dashboards and such can definitely be built without code such as via Retool or Looker or whatever.
WYSIWYG obviously makes sense for frontend, but less so for backend. For backend code I don't really see how some visual drag and drop editor could make for a better interface than code. And even if it could, the advantage of code is that it's fully customizable (whereas with a GUI you're limited by the GUI), and text itself as a medium is uniform and portable (eg. easy to copy and paste anywhere).
Not to say that we can't create better interfaces than text, but I do think some sort of augmentation on top of a code editor is probably a more realistic short-term evolution, similar to VSCode plugins.
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> What will be left? Where will we be? Just stranded without dignity or purpose, left to rot when we no longer produce value. Nobody stops you from paying $1000 for a shirt made by artisans right now. Do you want to? > Our governments and society have made it clear, if you don't produce value, you don't deserve dignity. It's not somebody else who decided that. It's you.
> > Our governments and society have made it clear, if you don't produce value, you don't deserve dignity. > It's not somebody else who decided that. It's you. No. The Republican National Convention cheered the idea of letting the poor and sick just die off in the streets. They cheered. Ron Paul asked "what are we supposed to do? Let our sick and poor just die cold in the streets?" and they cheered. Jobs are sacred i…
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Ah yes, you've entered the first stage of grief. Denial. Next you'll start bargaining, you'll get angry, and you'll become depressed, eventually you'll just accept that AI is taking over software. In my mind, I've concluded that I have less than 3 years to find an off ramp.
There is not a limited amount of software engineering that can be done. There's only the amount of software engineering that it is _economical_ to do at any given point. If AI makes software development cheaper and more efficient, people will just use apply it to more use cases. It's never been the case that making programming cheaper has lead to fewer programmers -- quite the opposite. This change is roughly analogo…
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It took me much longer than usual to get past the depression phase. The main reason is that everyone online kept telling me I was dumb, too inexperienced or extremely incompetent if I thought AI was a serious threat to me, a junior developer. Friends offline said similar things, just in a nicer way. Now everyone seems to be a "doomer" like me. I was too stupid to see that people (especially online) were lashing out a…
If the circle you're listening to are "recent grads" stop listening to them . They don't know how the industry works or what it needs, few of them them know how the technology works or what it's realistic near-term prospects are let alone the long-term ones, and none of them have lived long enough to understand the pace of a technology moving from discovery through to maturity and commercialization. If you look to yo…
As someone passionate about the potential of AI in tech, I can't wait to see what amazing feats Devin will accomplish. And who knows, maybe one day, companies like Munesoft Technologies will reach similar heights with their own AI-driven advancements. Here's to a future filled with endless possibilities! #DevinAI
As a developer but also product person, I keep trying to use AI to code for me. I keep failing, because of context length, because of shit output from the model, because of lack of any kind of architecture etc etc etc. I'm probably dumb as hell, because I just can't get it to do anything remotely useful, more than helping me with leetcode. Just yesterday I tried to feed it a simple HTML page to extract a selector, I…
Sound like a skill issue