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OpenAI and Elon Musk

openai.com

381–390 of 1001 posts

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#381
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they may be right that open sourcing AGI would lead to too much danger. I think this part is proving itself to be an understandable but false perspective. The hazard we are experiencing with LLM right now is not how freely accessible and powerfully truthy it's content is, but it is precisely the controls upon it which are trying to be injected by the large model operators which are generating mistrust and a poor und…

I'm not sure I buy that users are lowering their guard down just because these companies have enforced certain restricts on LLMS. This is only anecdata, but not a single person I've talked to, from highly technical to the layperson, has ever spoken about LLMs as arbiters of morals or truth. They all seem aware to some extent that these tools can occasionally generate nonsense. I'm also skeptical that making LLMs a fr…

Wikipedia is wonderful for what it is. And yet a hobby of mine is finding C-list celebrity pages and finding reference loops between tabloids and the biographical article.

The more the C-lister has engaged with internet wrongthink, the more egregious the subliminal vandalism is, with speculation of domestic abuse, support for unsavory political figures, or similar unfalsifiable slander being common place.

Politically-minded users practice this behavior because they know the platform’s air of authenticity damages their target.

When Google Gemini was asked “who is worse for the world, Elon Musk or Hitler” and went on to equivocate the two because the guardrails led it to believe online transphobia was as sinister as the Holocaust, it begs the question of what the average user will accept as AI nonsense if it affirms their worldview.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest real problem I’m experiencing right now isn’t controls on the AI, it’s weird spam emails that bypass spam filters because they look real enough, but are just cold email marketing bullshit: https://x.com/tlalexander/status/1765122572067434857 These systems are making the internet a worse place to be.

So you still believe the open internet has any chance of surviving what is coming? I admire your optimism. Reliable information and communication will soon be opt-in only. The "open internet" will become an eclectic collection of random experiences, where any real human output will be a pleasant, rare surprise, that stirs the pot for a short blip before it is assimilated and buried under the flood.

The internet will be fine, social media platforms will be flooded and killed by AI trash, but I can't see anything bad with that outcome. An actually 'open internet' for exchanging ideas with random strangers was a nice utopia from the early 90's that had been killed long ago (or arguably never existed).

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#383

> it's totally OK to not share the science Ilya being the bad guy is a surprise here.

If that surprises you, you haven't followed Ilya much. Ilya is very terrified of AGI destroying humanity and doesn't believe in this "accelerate AI and give it to everyone" naivety. 'Back in May 2023, before Ilya Sutskever started to speak at the event, I sat next to him and told him, “Ilya, I listened to all of your podcast interviews. And unlike Sam Altman, who spread the AI panic all over the place, you sound much…

Is that talk mentioned in the quote available online?

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because it's a completely made up claim with a random number thrown in. How do you end up with "5.5" years for a process that doesn't have a timetable, number of estimated emails required for EU accession divided by number of emails ChatGPT can generate per day?

What do emails have anything to do with EU accession?

literally nothing, that was the point. There is no way you make such a weirdly specific claim about an indeterminate process without cooking up some invented metric. It's like saying "ChatGPT accelerated my next promotion by 24.378 days, this is a totally scientific number, I swear"

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Open in openAI means that everyone should benefit from the fruits of AI after its built, but it's totally OK to not share the science... Based on this line of reasoning, ANY company that builds any given technology and intends to share (sell) it to the world, but not divulge how it was done, can call itself OpenWhatever. They are clearly saying that the word “Open” in their name means nothing.

The online versions of Microsoft office apps are free. What if they renamed those to... OpenOffice?

I laughed out real loud after reading this xD

But really there is so much money in this, and if they can make it they are going to be the next Google.

It should be obvious they don't want to be 'open' in terms of really making this open source.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What evidence do we have that a hard takeoff is likely?

What evidence do we have that it's impossible or even just very unlikely?

We don't have any evidence other than billions of biological intelligences already exist, and they tend to form lots of organizations with lots of resources. Also, AIs exist alongside other AIs and related technologies. It's similar to the gray goo scenario. But why think it's a real possibility given the world is already full of living things, and if gray goo were created, there would already be lots of nanotech that could be used to contain it.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because it's a completely made up claim with a random number thrown in. How do you end up with "5.5" years for a process that doesn't have a timetable, number of estimated emails required for EU accession divided by number of emails ChatGPT can generate per day?

What do emails have anything to do with EU accession?

Exactly. No one knows! The point is that there are many unknown variables but yet the company estimates the future outcome based on many variables.

Personally I think it's a kind of extrapolation based on new processes. It's more PR than math.

The aim of the message is to say that AI can help wider society

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he disagrees with 4: 4. Language prediction training will not get stuck in a local optimum. Most previous things we train on could have been better served if the model developed AGI, but they didn't. There is no reason to expect LLMs to not get stuck in a local optimum as well, and I have seen no good argument as to why they wouldn't get stuck like everything else we tried.

There is very little in terms of rigorous mathematics on the theoretical side of this. All we have are empirics, but everything we have seen so far points to the fact that more compute equals more capabilities. That's what they are referring to in the blog post. This is particularly true for the current generation of models, but if you look at the whole history of modern computing, the law roughly holds up over the l…

More compute also requires more data - scaling equally with model size, according to the Chinchilla paper.

How much more data is available that hasn't already been swept up by AI companies?

And will that data continue to be available as laws change to protect copyright holders from AI companies?

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#389
There’s so much greed in this space it’s sickening. Even Elon isn’t immune to greed. It should not be humans determining the course of AGI, but rather multiple AIs in a DAO that rule by quorum and consensus. The human element must be taken out of the equation.

Re: OpenAI and Elon Musk

#390
post #13

Their evidence does a nice job of making Musk seem duplicitous, but it doesn't really refute any of his core assertions: they still have the appearance of abandoning their core mission to focus more on profits, even if they've elaborated a decent justification of why that's necessary to do. Or to put it more simply: here they explain why they had to betray their core mission. But they don't refute that they did betra…

> They're probably right that building AGI will require a ton of computational power, and that it will be very expensive.

Is that still true? LLMs seem to be getting smaller and cheaper for the same level of performance.

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