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Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

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Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#61

Post by grecy »

photochemsyn wrote: post #22

IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…

Their job is to convince everyone that everything is OK, and we should all keep going to work, spending money and investing.

If even a small percentage of people stopped doing those things, it would all fall apart.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#63

Post by infamouscow »

throwway120385 wrote: post #50
hef19898 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on the chain, management at McD and Burger King was always rather well paid. Also high turn-over high pressure.

Retail management means you're on call 24/7 even when you think you're on vacation. And even when another manager is nominally running the store. Also you're not totally responsible for hiring, and underperformers can and do get stuck on your team. And also you're responsible for your store hitting its sales targets regardless of where it's located and what changes in the environment.

In practice, this sounds no different than most engineering manager roles outside of very tech-savvy organizations.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#64

Post by bluefirebrand »

cj wrote: post #12
ulfw wrote: post #6

Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

> whether that be decreased salary levels

Who can afford to be taking smaller salaries when everything is getting more expensive?

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#65

Post by hirako2000 »

themagician wrote: post #34
cj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't…

While I agree great engineers will continue to grow in scarcity and demand higher and higher compensation, the shift to armies of prompt specialists is not just an overstatement. It's wrong.

Why?

The same was said again and again again about the offshoring programmers. Reality? Here we are with countless unfilled jobs hiring for senior enginners in NYC for over 200k per year.

The gap, at least cultural, between a coder in Bengalore and San Francisco is significant. Imagine compared to an outsourced "consultant" behind a prompt .

Plus, coding is about 10% of the work. If that. What matters in the end is the thinking, design and solutioning.

Putting a WordPress standard looking and doing template together? Sure gpt4 would do and help udemy self taught "programmer" do it just fine. Innovation and building fit for purpose systems? Humans. Even with quantum computers and 7 trillion parameters models, still humans.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#66

Post by themagician »

throw1234651234 wrote: post #53
themagician wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't…

Genuinely reads like a scare-mongering myths. I am doing the basic of the basic atm - adding an API endpoint to call an internal API and get a subset of data and ChatGPT can't even accomplish that. I have been reviewing the usability of AI for at least a year now, and it's still nowhere near even replacing juniors, despite these posts.

It already has replaced many junior and even mid level engineers. People are getting good at refining prompts. That's the new skill.

Do you have people under you? If yes, I gurantee they can be replaced by a script kiddie with some prompt experience. If no, well… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdKqAVpUOwI

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#68

Post by hirako2000 »

EchoChamberMan wrote: post #55
throw1234651234 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely reads like a scare-mongering myths. I am doing the basic of the basic atm - adding an API endpoint to call an internal API and get a subset of data and ChatGPT can't even accomplish that. I have been reviewing the usability of AI for at least a year now, and it's still nowhere near even replacing juniors, despite these posts.

Nevermind. The downvoting is wild. This is how you end up in a bubble.

And CEOs are well known for never spitting lies to manipulate the audience to get cheaper labour, right?

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#69

Post by semiquaver »

themagician wrote: post #34
cj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't…

People have been saying this for decades about tech specifically, and for hundreds of years about every major technological innovation.
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