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The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

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Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, put-call parity is the hedging argument [1]. Black-Scholes-(Merton) was a breakthrough because it lets one understand why the hedge works, and thereby hedge and price more precisely. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put–call_parity

What I never fully understood is there’s a free parameter in the equation (Implied Volatility)- which has no solid definition besides “the number that makes the rest of the equation work”. At that point… how much value are you really getting from the rest of the equation?

It's not really implied volatility, it's the actual volatility between now and expiration. Everyone can only estimate at what that will be.

IV is essentially using prevailing prices to understand what everyone else has estimated that forward volatility to be.

Beyond that, you will also find that IV differs across strikes [1]. Still, being able to fit a vol smile from incomplete market data (and some other adjustments if you are very sophisticated) and then price an arbitrary option is pretty useful.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility_smile

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I never fully understood is there’s a free parameter in the equation (Implied Volatility)- which has no solid definition besides “the number that makes the rest of the equation work”. At that point… how much value are you really getting from the rest of the equation?

Former option trader here. The free parameter is actually the "thing" that you're actually trading when you trade an option. All the other parameters are just environmental, you look them up. The short story is that the implied vol is a sort of balancing price between how much the option loses in value over time vs how much you can make performing the hedge.

Why do any of the other variables matter if the market is collectively fighting between "overpriced and underpriced" on premium/implied volatility?

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#14
post #2

Black-scholes is a hedging argument, the eqn isn't the essence of it

Eh, put-call parity is the hedging argument [1]. Black-Scholes-(Merton) was a breakthrough because it lets one understand why the hedge works, and thereby hedge and price more precisely. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Put–call_parity

Wasn't the main breakthrough it's utility and accessibility, not precision?

It's still quite generalized in that it assumes a flat volatility surface, which even traders in the pits intuitively knew was wrong (thus the emergent volatility smile after '87). What it did allow was for a single number (implied volatility) to function as the single knob to be dialed to move quotes up and down for convex instruments. Therefore, instead of calling a trade desk and working out direct price quotes, you could have an immediate frame of reference ("this is trading at 31 vol") and move the offer to, say, "30 vol", leaving the calculation to the computer because both parties shared a language.

As for the vol smile and lack of volatility surface uniformity in real markets, it wasn't an issue, because pit traders were fine pricing different strikes at different vols, and players deeper in the volatility space had their own more accurate models geared for each market/instrument.

Knowing an underlying's iVol gives a good general overview of the pricing landscape with just a single number, and then if you need more precision, you can pull up the list of strikes and ivols for each strike and see the shape of the vol surface. That just takes a few more seconds. It's very quick and very useful, from the pit trader crews with the proto-handheld computer to the sell side and buy side deals working the phones. Utility!

To expand a bit, it is also a great feature that the second level of granularity (breaking away from the theoretical flat vol surface by applying different iVol values to different strikes) isn't crammed into another overarching generalized model. It breaks the model and lets traders go, say after the '87 crash, "tail risk is trading much higher what it has been historically, and this stuff is staying permanently bid, looks like a regime shift. We don't have a generalized model for this yet but in the meantime, traders in the pit are working with this new pricing, we can all see it and speak the same language, and we'll work out the new generalized models at a later date." That's why these simple options pricing models are still useful today, even though there are far more known kinks in volatility surfaces than there were decades ago.

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#17
post #15

This got me thinking: Can the backpropagation algorithm be expressed as an equation? I assume this should always be possible using functional programming.

Are you talking about backpropagation in neural networks? Do you mean as a differential equation? It already is a normal algebraic equation.

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#18

[flagged]

Derivatives are a zero-sum game. If someone lost a trillion dollars trading them, someone else made a trillion dollars trading them. It will always result in a net 0.

That assumes that both counterparties are solvent. If one party isn't and is too big to fail, the tax payer will very much not see this as a sum game.

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Former option trader here. The free parameter is actually the "thing" that you're actually trading when you trade an option. All the other parameters are just environmental, you look them up. The short story is that the implied vol is a sort of balancing price between how much the option loses in value over time vs how much you can make performing the hedge.

Why do any of the other variables matter if the market is collectively fighting between "overpriced and underpriced" on premium/implied volatility?

You can find an IV that makes sense for a single option with invalid other parameters, but things will break down when you go to price other expirations / strikes.

When trading, you don't want to wait to see an "updated" IV, you would want to respond directly to changes in important and well understood parameters like underlying price.

Re: The Black-Scholes/Merton equation [video]

#20

How does this square with "past market returns are do not (entirely) determine future market returns"? Surely the same applies to the historical stddev?

In practice the standard deviation used is implied from option prices, making the whole thing completely circular. To match the market you need to use different standard deviations (volatilities) for different options!
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