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The True Rate of Unemployment

lisep.org

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Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#21

Post by rahimnathwani »

zzleeper wrote: post #9

If this data is correct, then ONE THIRD of the population was unemployed in 1995. Is this reasonable? Also, why include people with no jobs? That would include stay-at-home parents and even FIRE folks that retired early

The white paper linked on the site suggests they use the same denominator as the BLS, so only people with a job or seeking a job. Given that, I'd assume the numerator doesn't include the categories you mention.

https://assets-global.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c751359...

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#23

Post by jrflowers »

okaram wrote: post #17
tomcar288 wrote: post #7

I think what's going on is, we're having period of high inflation. Here's my theorey: this high inflation is effectively lowering the minimum wage level because minimum wage isn't keeping pace with the real rate of inflation. and because minimum wage is decreasing in real terms, this opens up lots of new positions that were made illegal by minimum wage. and so more and more people are finding jobs at the low end of t…

Sorry, we are NOT having high inflation any more, regardless of what you feel or think.

Whenever I hear people complain about rent or groceries I always politely inform them that the Δ Δ of their rent is quite low this month and that means the economy is in fact good

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#24

Post by milesskorpen »

okaram wrote: post #17
tomcar288 wrote: post #7

I think what's going on is, we're having period of high inflation. Here's my theorey: this high inflation is effectively lowering the minimum wage level because minimum wage isn't keeping pace with the real rate of inflation. and because minimum wage is decreasing in real terms, this opens up lots of new positions that were made illegal by minimum wage. and so more and more people are finding jobs at the low end of t…

Sorry, we are NOT having high inflation any more, regardless of what you feel or think.

Sure, inflation rates have come down from their highs, but we don't have deflation so $1 today is still worth less than $1 from 2020 — which means $15/hr minimum wage is worth less today than in 2020.

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#25

Post by its_bbq »

jrflowers wrote: post #23
okaram wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, we are NOT having high inflation any more, regardless of what you feel or think.

Whenever I hear people complain about rent or groceries I always politely inform them that the Δ Δ of their rent is quite low this month and that means the economy is in fact good

I'm sure that helps them pay their rent and put food on the table.

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#26

Post by rahimnathwani »

pknomad wrote: post #11

I am not an economist but I do follow economic policies, usually in the form of blogs written by economists such as Noah Smith, Greg Mankiw, et al. I will leave this here: https://www.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/jd3p0l/axios_... to show why LISEP's measure of unemployment is problematic. I haven't had chance to look at the methodology for this particular piece but I suspect it's also got few holes/unmentioned…

That reddit comment is itself opinionated. The poster says that you don't want to count people who are disabled or who don't want to work.

I'd argue we should count those people. If someone has failed to find a job they want for a long time, they might give up. That reduces the numerator and denominator each by 1, reducing the calculated unemployment rate. Does that make any sense?

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#27

Post by jrflowers »

its_bbq wrote: post #25
jrflowers wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whenever I hear people complain about rent or groceries I always politely inform them that the Δ Δ of their rent is quite low this month and that means the economy is in fact good

I'm sure that helps them pay their rent and put food on the table.

I wouldn’t go so far to call myself a hero for the wisdom I post but

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#28

Post by fnordpiglet »

jeffbee wrote: post #8
voidwtf wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes I wonder if we’re tracking the wrong thing and we’ve lost sight of why we even started tracking these type of stats to begin with. Are Americans prospering? Can they afford minimum needs like food and housing? Is the average American quality of life remaining consistent or increasing? I want to see America as a whole do better and sometimes I wonder if stats are being deliberately reported in a way that obs…

I once got downvoted into oblivion on this very website for advocating for a society with 90% unemployment. The stats are just stats but they're not necessarily what we should be chasing.

I believe the goal of humanity should be that pushing a button for food pellets all day long is not a moral imperative or a necessity for survival. 100% unemployment should be the goal, and the end of scarcity that would require its feasibility.

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#29

Post by ta2234234242 »

CardenB wrote: post #18
bryanlarsen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wages have been increasing faster than inflation for the last 10 months.

Bottom 25th percentile has been zero or negative growth at least back to 1998. This would include minimum wage and support the original argument. This doesn't seem to correct for inflation, so zero or negative wage growth is punished completely by inflation. source: https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab3

Sure but not everyone stays in the bottom 25%. College students would be one category that you would expect this to be true of. I was certainly in the poverty level in college, but not anymore.

What we really care about are the people who are persistently in poverty and whether or not that number grows or shrinks. If it shrinks the economy is helping real people, if it's not, it's helping the well off.

Re: The True Rate of Unemployment

#30

Post by macinjosh »

okaram wrote: post #17
tomcar288 wrote: post #7

I think what's going on is, we're having period of high inflation. Here's my theorey: this high inflation is effectively lowering the minimum wage level because minimum wage isn't keeping pace with the real rate of inflation. and because minimum wage is decreasing in real terms, this opens up lots of new positions that were made illegal by minimum wage. and so more and more people are finding jobs at the low end of t…

Sorry, we are NOT having high inflation any more, regardless of what you feel or think.

Sorry, just because inflation isnlowerijg doesn't mean the damage that happened is magically solved. We aren't deflating by any means.
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