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SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

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Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mini-factories in space could become a thing, supposedly a lot of industrial processes are only difficult because of friction and gravity.

Asteroid mining I think is one of the most interesting initial space industries. Something silly like a single asteroid having metals with current valuations of a million times the global GDP. Obviously you can't sell for that much but asteroid mining could make a lot of commodities become insanely cheap, and that would enable some pretty amazing things here at home, and in space. Like what if steel were cheaper than…

Yes, send up the robot miners. Plow the results onto the moon a safe but close distance to a base. Manufacture parts in lower G and far easier vacuum (it's super useful for MANY industrial things). Possibly even use solar collector ovens to melt/cook.

Returning bulk products to earth might not be viable in the short term, but this could really bootstrap what we do off planet and I'm hopeful it might eventually make space elevators viable which would open a lot of options.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#205
Metaculus shows a 74% chance Starship reaches orbit in 2024, and a projected date of March 26 for the next launch. That seems pretty bullish to me! Next year (2025) will probably see the beginnings of practical customer usage of Starship.

[0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=open&has_group=f...

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#206

This is good. Flight 1 had 63 corrective actions and it took 5 months to complete the report. This one took 3 months and had 17 corrective actions. They'll get to orbit this year for sure

It’s so exciting to keep track of. Feels like everything I hoped to see happening in spaceflight back in the 90s and 00s is finally (maybe) becoming reality and absolutely shattering the stagnancy that had overcome the field, hopefully this time for good. If this pace can continue unabated, maybe it’s not too unrealistic to hope that my grandkids’ generation in a few decades has astronaut as one of their most aspired…

I am not sure if there is enough profitable space industry.

Last I checked asteroid mining was not super feasible, but maybe some like space based solar.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#207
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But deliver what exactly?

Results.

But what is the benefit of these result?

At the moment we put more debris into Earth's orbit, Star Link is nice but not a sustainable solution, same with many other satellites

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#208

I haven't watched launches since the space shuttle days. I have watched both of the Starship launches, and will watch all of them that I can. Excitement about space is back with a vengeance!

Rovers and helicopters on Mars, leaving the solar system, close-ups of Pluto, asteroid material brought back to Earth, etc. etc. Those weren't exciting, but reaching orbit real cheap is?

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#209

Metaculus shows a 74% chance Starship reaches orbit in 2024, and a projected date of March 26 for the next launch. That seems pretty bullish to me! Next year (2025) will probably see the beginnings of practical customer usage of Starship. [0] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?status=open&has_group=f...

How does Metaculus make such predictions? I assume it can't be in the reliability engineering fashion used in industry.

Re: SpaceX discloses cause of Starship anomalies as it clears an FAA hurdle

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is correct, but there is much more success than failure if you look into it unbiased, they delivered all commit tasks and then some stretch ones too. Based on your response I won’t go any deeper, it would be time wasting, you appear to have made up your mind already.

How many launches did SLS need?

One in over a decade, for $23 billion.

(And it's arguablely a failure, as the Senate is still earthbound, and likely to remain so for the forseeable future.;))

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