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Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

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Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#181
post #176
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also you're picking between Reward and Bigger Reward. Positive EV no matter your choice so eh don't worry about it too much :) A nice goat fetches up to $1000 to according to a quick google.

A nice goat, you say? How much for a mean goat, jaded from years of being the spoiler prize that nobody wants?

Whenever someone talks about mean goats I think of only one thing: Buttermilk the baby goat, being a jerk.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWvefaN8USk

Enjoy.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#182
post #65
post #39

The intuitive way for me to understand the Monte Hall problem is to pretended there are 1000 doors. You pick 1. There’s a 1 in 1000 chance you get it right. The host then opens 998 doors that don’t have the prize. Do you keep your original or do you switch? Are the odds 50:50?

The explanation that worked for me was: Suppose after you make your initial choice, instead of opening a door, Monty simply asks if you'd like to switch to BOTH the other two doors, such that you win if the prize is behind EITHER of them. That switch is intuitively a great deal, giving you 2/3 odds. The only way you can lose is in the 1/3rd case where you already picked a winner. The original scenario is equivalent t…

a single sentence convinced me: "When Monty opens the door, he reveals information about the state behind the doors".

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#183
post #56
post #39

The intuitive way for me to understand the Monte Hall problem is to pretended there are 1000 doors. You pick 1. There’s a 1 in 1000 chance you get it right. The host then opens 998 doors that don’t have the prize. Do you keep your original or do you switch? Are the odds 50:50?

I think the reason it's so hard to understand is that we try to break the problem down into more digestible problems, and in this case, if you only consider the last stage of the game, it certainly seems like it should be 50:50 odds. In other words, at the final round, you are presented with two doors. Ignore the fact that you already chose one, and assume you were starting at this point: you enter the game, see two…

>It's hard to really understand why it matters that the previous rounds occurred at all

It's not hard at all. Humans are not perfectly rational beings. It's not purely about odds, it's about emotions and psychology. In a version where there's no previous selection and it's 50:50, than I pick one and live with it. In the canonical example, the previous selection means that the contestant has already staked their claim, and changing it to the loosing door would have a different emotional response than a simple 50:50 shot with no previous selection. There's a reason why Roulette shows you the last X spins and whether they're odd/even, red/black... because humans make the assumption that the last disconnected data point somehow impacts the current one.

You're also glossing over the fact that there was a 1:3 chance you picked the right door to begin with, and 2:3 chance the "other" door was right. The last round isn't 50:50, as you so claim, because there was prior information

This is the same reason why the 1000 door example helps explain things; because the math is fundamentally the same, yet significantly more imbalanced. We can also think about how we'd feel about our selection in the 1000 door version, which is likely significantly less confidence, and therefore more likelihood of switching. Whether it's 3 doors, or 1000, the math still say switching is optimal, and our psychology and emotions deal with the choice of switching different in each case.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#184

The asymmetry is that if you pick the one with the car first (only 1/3rd chance) then Monty Hall can show you either of the other doors. If you pick one without a car first (2/3rd chance) then Monty Hall must show you the door that doesn't have a car and the remaining door always has the car. So 2/3rd of the time you have a 100% chance of a car if you switch, 1/3rd of the time you have 0% chance of a car if you switc…

Aha! This is the first explanation that reveals the most common error. The fact that the reveal isn't just a random door. The host must not reveal the car. That changes everything. I believe that's what most people are missing. But if you actually stated that explicitly, you would give away the answer and the problem wouldn't be fun anymore.

The fun is in not explicitly stating every unconscious assumption you have about the problem.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#185

Wow, I knew about the problem and was vaguely aware that it had generated some controversy amongst statisticians but I had no idea about the insanely arrogant and obnoxious (not to mention wrong) abuse Marilyn had received from the "intellectual elite". I have little sympathy for the "ambiguous question" defence. Not only is Marilyn's interpretation grammatically valid, it just wouldn't make sense in the context of t…

Also regardless of whether she's a woman or she's known for intelligence, a response in which you say "You're wrong" needs an extra second's thought to consider whether, in fact, they are wrong, or maybe just their understanding is different from yours and you need to reconsider with their context.

Some time back in an HN thread about programming languages I read a response in a thread about inference which said that a particular feature doesn't really save on typing. And it seemed ludicrous. Until I realised the author of the comment has seen the word "typing" (which everybody else in the thread is reading as "The thing you do with a keyboard") and they're interpreting it as "The thing the compiler does". And yeah, with that perspective of course inference isn't saving typing, all your variables still have types, we were just happy because we spent less time operating the keyboard to write a program. Their comment was not wrong and we weren't correcting them, we'd just understood things differently!

Edited to add, link: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36593110

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#186

Wow, I knew about the problem and was vaguely aware that it had generated some controversy amongst statisticians but I had no idea about the insanely arrogant and obnoxious (not to mention wrong) abuse Marilyn had received from the "intellectual elite". I have little sympathy for the "ambiguous question" defence. Not only is Marilyn's interpretation grammatically valid, it just wouldn't make sense in the context of t…

> it just wouldn't make sense in the context of the game show for the presenter (who knows where the goats are) to ever open a door to reveal the car and give you the option to switch.

None of it makes sense because it is not a real game show, it is a thought experiment.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's what trips up most people. I found working through it to be really rewarding, you might too. Spoiler alert: consider how Monty's choices are constrained by what he knows, and how the player can capitalize on that.

Yes, although I wasn't very good at statistics in university (I found it too vague and non-math-y...), this one I never had much problems with; the fact that Monty is guaranteed to open a door with a goat and you already selected a door moved 1/3 to the door we both didn't select. You have the 1/3rd that you DID select the car, so the other he DIDN't select must have 2/3rd.

That’s a succinct and intuitive explanation!

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to know whether he does or does not do that all the time. Because he did it this time? Amazed this nitpicking is still going on; it's illustrative.

I once had somebody claim the answer was wrong because we weren't sure if the contestant wanted the car or the goat. This puzzle is like a shibboleth for nitpickers.

In many developing countries if you ask somebody whether they want a flush toilet or a mobile phone, most people pick the mobile phone.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#190
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want the result where there is a lower conditional probability of your originally selected door having the prize versus the remaining unopened door, then it completely does matter to have the setup be "Monty always opens a door with a goat" instead of "Monty opens a door at random, and in this particular case, it happened to have a goat behind it".

nope, do the math edit: i ran a monty carlo simulation¹ and i was doing the math wrong. it really does matter if monty knows or not. here's the simulation where he knows: In [15]: non_censored_trials = got_car_trials = 0 In [16]: for trial in range(100_000): ...: car_door = random.randrange(3) # the other two doors have goats ...: your_door = random.randrange(3) ...: monty_door = random.choice(list({0, 1, 2} - {your_…

I dunno about anybody else, but to me teaching people how to convert word problems into code/simulations and how to interpret the results is one of the most important things a country that wants to be wealthy and powerful in the future should be doing.

I've always admired folks who can do these sorts of things in their head, while it takes me a bunch of time to inspect the code and convince myself it's an accurate representation of the word problem.

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