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Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

priceonomics.com

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Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#11

Post by wizerdrobe »

paulcole wrote: post #7
wizerdrobe wrote: post #4

[flagged]

What part of the scenario is poorly written in your opinion?

TFA is very well written, but in almost every reproduction of the Monty Hall problem you’ll find it very poorly written such that one would reasonably be led to believe the question is “if I have two doors what is the probability.”

Don’t believe me, go search for memes presenting the problem. It’s been on the internet for decades at this point.

The setup is near always to send a poor rewrite then link you to a story of Marilyn von Savant when you get 50-50. It’s an age old internet troll.

I think this story in its entirety says a lot about ignoring the importance of good technical writing… and how people on the internet love tricking others to feel “right.”

Of the cited hate mail Savant received, I have to wonder how many were setup with poor writing on the topic.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#12

Post by tromp »

paulcole wrote: post #10
tromp wrote: post #8

> Imagine that you’re on a television game show and the host presents you with three closed doors. Behind one of them, sits a sparkling, brand-new Lincoln Continental; behind the other two, are smelly old goats. The host implores you to pick a door, and you select door #1. Then, the host, who is well-aware of what’s going on behind the scenes, opens door #3, revealing one of the goats. > “Now,” he says, turning towar…

> You need to know that the car is randomly placed You don't need to know this. > and that the host always has to show you an empty (ok, goat) door before offering you to switch You know this through the line, "Then, the host, who is well-aware of what’s going on behind the scenes." If you can't understand that a game show host won't spoil the game they're hosting, that's on you and a good opportunity to pick up comm…

It might be that he only does the reveal-and-switch offer if your original pick was the car.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#13

Post by abeppu »

wizerdrobe wrote: post #4

[flagged]

Was it poorly written? It was clear enough for you and many other people to write simulations, to do mathematical analysis, etc. Or could it be the case that some very accessible true facts in probability are counter-intuitive, but even after we're convinced that we were mistaken in our intuition, people will prefer to blame the problem?

Note, I think people sharing this kind of thing _do_ tend to be smug, but of course if the first time they heard it they were also confused, they have no reason to be smug.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#14

Post by fatnoah »

wizerdrobe wrote: post #4

[flagged]

> However, the odds of going through this weird game show setup are 2/3 as stated.

This was one I could never get my head around, so I simply listed all the possible scenarios, and counted the number of car vs. goat results. Sure enough, it worked out to 2/3 and my mind was blown.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#15

Post by paulcole »

tromp wrote: post #12
paulcole wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You need to know that the car is randomly placed You don't need to know this. > and that the host always has to show you an empty (ok, goat) door before offering you to switch You know this through the line, "Then, the host, who is well-aware of what’s going on behind the scenes." If you can't understand that a game show host won't spoil the game they're hosting, that's on you and a good opportunity to pick up comm…

It might be that he only does the reveal-and-switch offer if your original pick was the car.

It might be that he only does the reveal-and-switch offer on Fridays as well.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#18

Post by wizerdrobe »

abeppu wrote: post #13
wizerdrobe wrote: post #4

[flagged]

Was it poorly written? It was clear enough for you and many other people to write simulations, to do mathematical analysis, etc. Or could it be the case that some very accessible true facts in probability are counter-intuitive, but even after we're convinced that we were mistaken in our intuition, people will prefer to blame the problem? Note, I think people sharing this kind of thing _do_ tend to be smug, but of cou…

I think the meme I was originally sent as a part of my story was a shitty meme involving gold and silver balls, rather than this specific article from Pricenomics which painfully explains everything.

What I was trying to get at is there are poor reproductions used to trick people that go around and must be a big part of the meme.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#19

Post by Jimmc414 »

swayvil wrote: post #5

Am I the only person who wonders how "Marilyn Vos Savant" also happens to be the smartest person? If you didn't notice, "Savant" means smart. So is it just a coincidence? Karma? The pressure of carrying such a name drove her to smartness?

Perhaps Bill Ackman was right about impact of a person’s name. I doubt it, but it’s an interesting observation.

Re: Marilyn vos Savant and the Monty Hall Problem (2015)

#20

Post by ksherlock »

swayvil wrote: post #5

Am I the only person who wonders how "Marilyn Vos Savant" also happens to be the smartest person? If you didn't notice, "Savant" means smart. So is it just a coincidence? Karma? The pressure of carrying such a name drove her to smartness?

Per Wikipedia:

Marilyn vos Savant was born Marilyn Mach on August 11, 1946, in St. Louis, Missouri, to parents Joseph Mach and Marina vos Savant.

... so only 50% coincidence.

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