I think the negative is the birth rates falling too fast, resulting in an "unbalanced" population pyramid. If the birth rates were falling slowly, and stabilized at replacement, does it really matter where within reasonable range the population ends up?
Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
111–120 of 136 posts
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#112More neoliberal bullshit.
The human world survived just fine when there was 1% of the current population.
The whole idea that we "can't afford to take care of so many old people" is premised on the assumption that Elon and Bozo need 2/3 of the world's economic output, and the other 1/3 should be spent bombing each other.
The idea that the consumption/person is declining is also bullshit. As 3rd world countries see how 1st world populations are living, they also want these opulent lifestyles.
The physical world (you know, the one that "might be a simulation" and is ignored in favor of twerk tic and fortnight) cannot support the world's 3rd world residents going through the same consumption bender that the 1st world has gone through in the last 50-100 years.
We need to stop breeding people, just like we need to stop breeding dogs and cows...
In 100 years when the population is back below 1 billion, then we can worry about under-population...
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why? Why do you assume that people ever start procreating, when they are below replacement most everywhere? When does it stop? Why do you assume it does?
There are segments of populations that are fertile. In time, the infertile peoples and cultures die and will be replaced by the fertile ones.
So you're expecting that somebody else will start doing the right thing instead of you?
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that is fair. I don't know if it is "rational" (for some sense of that word): kids will excel if they are, simply, loved. Sure, going to great schools is nice. But having a supportive home is way more important than those expensive things.
Are you going to send your kids to a less than great school?
If there is none around, of course. Most people didn't go to great schools by definition.
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
There's a lot to be learnt from looking at population dynamics of other species; animals and plants elsewhere on the planet, particulaly those on islands and other constrained by resource environs. It's more plausible to assume our population peaks, as predicted, then falls, and then levels out and stabilises | oscillates. It'd be odd for it to peak and then plummet to zero from 10 or 11 billion.
Perhaps not to zero, maybe it was just an "algae bloom" of humanity. From which it would dwindle to half a billion thinly distibuted around the globe. And that's a medium scenario. If some kind of collapse happens, we may dip into half a million hunter-gatherers. Or half a million hi-tech bunker dwellers. Population dynamics are not very insightful. We see villages which had population for three millenia deserted, wi…
> And that's a medium scenario.
In your opinion, sure.
For most that's just a fanciful outlier possibility.
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#116I've spent an awful lot of time in both Croatia and Japan, and the problem looks more or less the same in both places. Croatia has had sub-replacement fertility for decades -- plus the migration of young people to other EU countries that offer higher salaries, or to Zagreb if they can't find a job in Denmark or Germany. Japan has had sub-replacement fertility for decades -- plus the migration of young people from sma…
>> The "solution" is immigration -- if you believe that people are perfectly fungible and that an Indonesian man will become accepted as Japanese, or a Lebanese man will become accepted as Croatian.
Obviously people are not fungible otherwise every country would look the same. If Croatians or Japanese want to preserve their culture, they will have to make their own babies, there is no way around it.
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#117Yes yes, more people means more progress which means line goes up which means we will all live in a utopia or something like that. That's why everyone is trying to escape their country and conduct a huge trek to reach countries like uhh India, China and so on and so forth.
> more people means more progress Is that really the case? Isn't it more a matter of experience that some countries or even continents show impressive population growth and at the same time are pretty resistant to progress? Isn't it rather the case that even in the so-called developed countries only a small part of the population is responsible for technological progress? And do the exceptional geniuses (such as Eins…
You clearly missed the parents sarcasm
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Perhaps not to zero, maybe it was just an "algae bloom" of humanity. From which it would dwindle to half a billion thinly distibuted around the globe. And that's a medium scenario. If some kind of collapse happens, we may dip into half a million hunter-gatherers. Or half a million hi-tech bunker dwellers. Population dynamics are not very insightful. We see villages which had population for three millenia deserted, wi…
> And that's a medium scenario. In your opinion, sure. For most that's just a fanciful outlier possibility .
You assume that population will stabilize despite fertility falling univerasally all around the globe (with tiny but highly unpleasant exceptions).
The economic issues are only projected to get worse. There are no known mechanisms for fertility to rebound.
Yet you assume with certainty that the trend will reverse. Great to be you.
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
That is not even remotely the title of the article!
The article is almost the opposite of that title, but let's discuss that title. Having children is absolutely inherently selfish. There is no good reason besides ones own self fulfillment to overpopulate a world that is on the verge of irreversible climate damage where people may very well be fighting over water and air conditioning while fleeing some of the most densely populated regions due to uninhabitable heat in…
But these (the fleeing and fighting ones) are not my people.
My people are living sparsely (but overurbanized) and have not enough children.
Totally not obliged to welcome them in, though with modern political world structure will have no choice. We basically invite the invasion of sea people, II.
Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
> And that's a medium scenario. In your opinion, sure. For most that's just a fanciful outlier possibility .
You assume that population will stabilize despite fertility falling univerasally all around the globe (with tiny but highly unpleasant exceptions). The economic issues are only projected to get worse. There are no known mechanisms for fertility to rebound. Yet you assume with certainty that the trend will reverse. Great to be you.
> You assume that population will stabilize
Correct. This is seen in all manner of real world dynamic systems with constraint pressures. "Stabilize" in this context includes "bounces up and down between a few too many and a few too little".
Now you're getting it.
> There are no known mechanisms for fertility to rebound.
Now you're being silly and all doom and gloom.
> Yet you assume with certainty that the trend will reverse.
Predict with high probability based on looking at lots of dynamic systems, yep.
> Great to be you.
This is hardly an esoteric or unusual viewpoint, perhaps you might look at cheering up and doing away with the OMG we have to breed w/out limit or die!!
Seems a tad black or white for the much richer more complex world we live in.