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Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

maartenboudry.be

101–110 of 136 posts

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#101
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course its true - we wouldn't have gotten to the moon, or been able to build world-encompassing highway and Internet systems, without the critical mass of people who built our academic and industrial institutions. To see the nature of your fallacy, just look out at your universities and wonder how they will operate, as effectively as they have so far, with half the staff. And then, that staff halves again in 10 ye…

A Lot of academics already today are just trying to keep their job, and don't keep up with innovative teaching methods, they don't record their lectures, cause who would pay them if there's a video about it ? So in reality we would be fine, if we focus on doing the job not keeping the job.

[dead]

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A luxury lifestyle is cheaper than a child. The last estimates I’ve seen are around $300K (and that was before the recent bouts of inflation) to raise a kid and that didn’t include college. So that’s like a Lamborghini, right? Or a lot of fancy vacations. And that’s just one kid; you might get some economies of scale with more, but the marginal costs are there too.

Yeah this wildly off. 4 kids, typical tech salary ladder career / upper middle class lifestyle, my marginal costs are maaaaybe another $40k year in total ... and I get about a $25k tax break for having them.

In other words, you're spending more than half the median US household income on raising children. I think this is more a statement about your wealth than the affordability of children.

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#103
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? Why do you assume that people ever start procreating, when they are below replacement most everywhere? When does it stop? Why do you assume it does?

There's a lot to be learnt from looking at population dynamics of other species; animals and plants elsewhere on the planet, particulaly those on islands and other constrained by resource environs. It's more plausible to assume our population peaks, as predicted, then falls, and then levels out and stabilises | oscillates. It'd be odd for it to peak and then plummet to zero from 10 or 11 billion.

Perhaps not to zero, maybe it was just an "algae bloom" of humanity. From which it would dwindle to half a billion thinly distibuted around the globe. And that's a medium scenario. If some kind of collapse happens, we may dip into half a million hunter-gatherers. Or half a million hi-tech bunker dwellers.

Population dynamics are not very insightful. We see villages which had population for three millenia deserted, with nobody wishing to live in that empty place and grow their cattle or whatnot.

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#104
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China will very soon have exactly the same "old and tired" problems. What are they going to do, beat each other with clutches while being accompanied by their drip lines? And why?

I guess you're a Peter Zeihan fan? I still think China will have a much larger army and navy than Japan. They have 10x the population and probably a similar decline in their populating expected.

Why would they want to beat up Japan? What's in it for China?

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#105
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would have thought that great (or perhaps at least very good) schooling was a bit orthogonal to whether they were public or private. Actually, I guess that is true. I grew up in a blue collar area with pretty bad (or maybe just "average") schools. So I do (erroneously) relate public schools with being bad :) I certainly would want more for my kids if I had them. But I (and most people) do have more than my parent…

> But I (and most people) do have more than my parents did. Are you a baby boomer? Because this is not true for my generation, the millennials[0] I mostly think generational "conflict" is foolish (I mean, I get to inherit from the wealthiest generation in the history of the world, so it's not all bad I guess?), but it is worth considering that people who have come of age and lived through different periods of history…

I'm Gen-X, yes.

I know that some charts show that the newer generations might not be doing as well as previous. And maybe I'm too optimistic. But I think it is hard to argue that -- even if our "wealth" is lower on some chart -- our world is much better. The web didn't even exist when I was a kid. Medical tech continues to advance. Pollution (of the non-CO2 kind) is down. Crime is (generally) down -- though it does fluctuate. We're not dying in wars. And so on.

Plus our lives are different enough now (marry later, etc) that it isn't easy to compare 1:1. Houses are bigger and have more bathrooms. We have way more entertainment at our disposal. We tend to work in offices rather than manual labor. And so on.

Finally, as you said, Millenials will be the ones inheriting all that Boomer wealth.

So I'm pretty sure at the end of the day, when you add it all up, the newer generations are continuing to continually have better lives than those before them. (But I can't prove it, so feel free to ignore me :)

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#106
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But I (and most people) do have more than my parents did. Are you a baby boomer? Because this is not true for my generation, the millennials[0] I mostly think generational "conflict" is foolish (I mean, I get to inherit from the wealthiest generation in the history of the world, so it's not all bad I guess?), but it is worth considering that people who have come of age and lived through different periods of history…

I'm Gen-X, yes. I know that some charts show that the newer generations might not be doing as well as previous. And maybe I'm too optimistic. But I think it is hard to argue that -- even if our "wealth" is lower on some chart -- our world is much better. The web didn't even exist when I was a kid. Medical tech continues to advance. Pollution (of the non-CO2 kind) is down. Crime is (generally) down -- though it does f…

Well, I’ll take the other end of it, and feel free to ignore me as well because the pessimistic take is depressing.

The web didn’t exist, but then neither did social media, which apparently is driving record teenage depression and anxiety (and I’d guess it isn’t limited to teenagers either). You could actually disconnect from your work since you didn’t have PagerDuty ever ready to call you in. I loved the web of the 90’s to mid 00’s as well, but what we have today is not that.

People don’t just marry later, they marry less (and as we’ve noted, have fewer children). You can choose to see this how you wish, but generally the pro-natalists see it as a bad thing; another sign of increased social fragmentation.

Houses are bigger yes, but that means less affordable; homelessness is rising.

The real kicker for me though is the falling life expectancy in the US. It’s literally been attributed to “deaths of despair”; drug overdoses, suicide, and other misadventure. That’s despite the advances in medicine.

Cancer rates are increasing (I literally found out yesterday that my sister has a growth that may be cancerous; she’s got a biopsy scheduled, and a woman who I dated died of cancer before she turned 40). Reasons are unclear but record rates of obesity can’t help. On that one at least we may have turned the corner with some really revolutionary drugs that are quite expensive now but I do believe will come down in price.

I don’t really want to do the pollution/CO2 thing because I’ve had enough already. Suffice it to say it’s hard for me to be an optimist.

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#107
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm Gen-X, yes. I know that some charts show that the newer generations might not be doing as well as previous. And maybe I'm too optimistic. But I think it is hard to argue that -- even if our "wealth" is lower on some chart -- our world is much better. The web didn't even exist when I was a kid. Medical tech continues to advance. Pollution (of the non-CO2 kind) is down. Crime is (generally) down -- though it does f…

Well, I’ll take the other end of it, and feel free to ignore me as well because the pessimistic take is depressing. The web didn’t exist, but then neither did social media, which apparently is driving record teenage depression and anxiety (and I’d guess it isn’t limited to teenagers either). You could actually disconnect from your work since you didn’t have PagerDuty ever ready to call you in. I loved the web of the…

Sorry that you are not as optimistic as me. Maybe it's too much time on social media :P

I think the drug issue is complex. Too complex to talk about. I'm lucky that I don't have whatever my dad had.

FWIW, I suspect cancer "rates" are going up due to detection. I think the rate of dying by cancer is going down (https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-...)

We'll survive climate change. We're installing solar and wind power at a crazy rate (and the rate continues to increase): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/08/12/climate/clean...

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#108
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many of my acquaintances simply cannot afford the costs of multiple children. I can't speak for your friends. But I think that when someone says "can't afford" what they really mean is "I'd rather spend that money on something else". Some people literally can't afford children. But those in the middle class (or better) in the US certainly can . It would just take money away from other parts of their lifestyle: the…

> I think that when someone says "can't afford" what they really mean is "I'd rather spend that money on something else". No, what many of us mean is that "We can't afford to give a child the kind of support and resources and opportunities that a responsible parent knows it is their job to provide." Many of us grew up poor, and saw people around us who didn't make it out. Many of them are still poor bordering on dest…

> We can't afford to give a child the kind of support and resources and opportunities that a responsible parent knows it is their job to provide.

that's a lot of subjective terminology delivered as absolute truth. If I disagree with you on the amount of resources, let's say I think it's 10% of what you think, does that make me an irresponsible parent? If I double the resource expenditure for marginal improvement, does that make me more responsible?

Your argument is simply not clearly defined. A lot of people may feel that way, I'd argue if it's not clearly defined they're probably wrong. The kind of support and resources a child needs are nutritious food, decent clothing and a mold and leak free dwelling. Those are the only things that cost money. Then, you have to teach them things and make them play a lot. Don't abuse them. All of those are free, unless you treat your life like a corporation that needs to maximize monetary return, then you'll consider the opportunity cost to talking to your kids. I'd say if that's how you approach it you'll damage your kids no matter how much money you throw at them.

I have kids, they have good clothes, they eat nutritious food, definitely above average on the nutrition front, they live in a dry, clean, comfortable dwelling with me, and they keep themselves entertained. I'd say in total their expenses cost me less than 500 bucks a month. They don't live in a dysfunctional environment, they learn faster than their peers, they are in good health, they're free to pursue their interests and hone their talents and they are well entertained. Kids aren't that expensive. You grew up poor, I grew up poor. My problem wasn't resources, it was the priorities of my parents, and when I look at the world, in almost every circumstance I see the same thing. You'd have to go to Somalia to find real prominent examples of kids being fucked over by lack of resources, in almost every other case it's the priorities of parents.

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#109
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, I’ll take the other end of it, and feel free to ignore me as well because the pessimistic take is depressing. The web didn’t exist, but then neither did social media, which apparently is driving record teenage depression and anxiety (and I’d guess it isn’t limited to teenagers either). You could actually disconnect from your work since you didn’t have PagerDuty ever ready to call you in. I loved the web of the…

Sorry that you are not as optimistic as me. Maybe it's too much time on social media :P I think the drug issue is complex. Too complex to talk about. I'm lucky that I don't have whatever my dad had. FWIW, I suspect cancer "rates" are going up due to detection. I think the rate of dying by cancer is going down ( https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-... ) We'll survive climate change. We're insta…

> Global cases of early onset cancer increased from 1.82 million in 1990 to 3.26 million in 2019, while cancer deaths of adults in their 40s, 30s or younger grew by 27%. More than a million under-50s a year are now dying of cancer, the research reveals.

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/05/cancer-cases...

So basically cancer said, “screw the millennials in particular”? It’s actually a bit darkly comedic.

Re: Forget about overpopulation, soon there will be too few humans

#110
post #83
post #34

Related ongoing thread: Selfish reasons to want more humans - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39497686 - Feb 2024 (214 comments)

That is not even remotely the title of the article!

The article is almost the opposite of that title, but let's discuss that title. Having children is absolutely inherently selfish. There is no good reason besides ones own self fulfillment to overpopulate a world that is on the verge of irreversible climate damage where people may very well be fighting over water and air conditioning while fleeing some of the most densely populated regions due to uninhabitable heat in less than 100 years. Luckily there is a solution though: just have generational wealth.
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